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Caulfield Thousand Guineas 17/10
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I’ve been waiting patiently for this race to come around and for a filly called MOLTO BENE to take her place in it. To be honest I knew bugger all about her as I virtually ignored the whole 2yo season of 2011-2012 and generally speaking I don’t like betting on 3yo races, particularly the early Spring events. I was a somewhat casual observer of the Thousand Guineas prelude on September 22 and might have had a few dollars on the favourite Commanding Jewel as the 1st or 2nd leg of an All Up. I vaguely remember the name of Molto Bene in the run, being trapped wide for most of it and on the turn she was labouring badly out about 12 horses off the fence. It was very safe to dismiss her as being any danger at all. As it turned out she never really looked like winning the race but what the hell was that in the red and black colours hurtling home the last 50 me to run a nice 3rd?? Wasn’t that the jockey silks of Molto Bene for Chrissakes? Surely not?
Rewind!…………… It sure was and her run never ceases to amaze me no matter how many times I watch the tape (err……..Recording)!
You very, very rarely see horses’ do what she did that day. Racing 3 wide at best the whole race, and yet stlil finish off like a train. And it obviously was no fluke given the circumstances and her prior form. The only problem with that sort of run for a young horse is that it can be a ‘gutbuster’. Such a sustained effort under that sort of pressure takes it’s toll on any horse, let alone a 3yo filly. Sometimes perhaps 2 weeks between runs isn’t enough to recover from a run like that depending on the constituion of the animal.
I have to admit I don’t like the idea of any horse coming into a G1 race not having started for 24 days beforehand, but in this case it may well be advantageous, and, even cleverly worked out by her young SA trainer Will Clarken. His reasoning is slightly different though in saying that another run before this race would have taken the edge off her (would have made her too dour) and made it more difficult to win.
The real bonus for MOLTO BENE here is that the field has fallen away quite dramatically in the past couple of weeks with losses of form for some of her rivals and the Flight Stakes winning filly Norzita being withdrawn in the last few days. She has drawn well, has the services of possibly the country’s best jockey Craig Williams and of course the extra 200m looks to be massively in her favour. Not sure that the latter point can be definitively stated for any other runner. At her current quote of $4.40 she is still some value but personally any less than $4 for a 3yo filly yet to win a G1 doesn’t represent much value so I’m getting in early
I do think she is a special and only bad luck will beat her most likely..
I you must take some insurance consider the Sydney filly Longport who has shown in her past 2 starts that she is the 2nd best 3yo filly in Sydney. The best filly in Sydney is Norzita (as mentioned earlier) her vanquisher last start but she has gone for a spell. But Longport has been competiitive with her. She will be up on the pace here, ahead of Molto Bene and one or 2 other well fancieds strong finishers so any leader bias could work in her favour. She is very good value @ $9.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized on October 15, 2012.
Cranbourne Cup day 14/10
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I’ve concentrated on the 2 main races at Cranbourne today and I think I have found some realistic value
R7 Is a very competitive 1000m scamper with a plethora of chances. THE MINISTER appeals to me here at a generous double figure quote. At first glance it might appear that this class of race is a bit too much of an ask but he does drop 5kg here off his last 2 wins. In his win at Caulfield before a spell last December he beat another of todays competitors Lone Star by 3L, and it was in receipt of 3kg. That horse is at a slightly lesser price today so go figure!
Nikita McClean was abord this horse first up this campaign when he won very comfortably at Bendigo this distance at juicy $9 odds. One thing I liked about that win is that he did it from off the pace, whereas he is normally ridden for speed in his races. That should augur well for him today in a race with a strong tempo that he can sit in behind. Ovearall Nikita has won 6 from 9 on the horse with only one other jockey successful on him in his other 11 career starts. The horse is pretty much a 1000m specialist winning 6/11 overall at this distance and 5 from his last 6 attempts. He is 1/1 on Slow tracks so the surface shouldn’t present a problem to him today and there is a possibility of an upgraded to his preferred surface of Dead. @ $13 this horse represents great each way value today.
R8 (Cup)- MIDNIGHT MARTINI appeals to me most here. She has a great formline coming into this finishing alongside Spirit Song twice. That mare ran out of her skin yesterday with a great G1 second to Solzhenitsyn in the Toorak. Watching the video of her last start 3rd to the up an coming Callanish (Spirit Song 2nd) she ran about badly early in the straight there before finishing on quite respectably at the finish. The run indicated 3 things to me;
A) More distance would be to her liking
B) She might have resented the dry surface
C) A Gear change might be advantageous
Well she gets all 3 of those today so it’s very hard not to back her @ $7.50. Blinkers On 2000m and a wet track, a surface she is yet to be beaten on in 2 attempts. Her form last Spring would indicate she has the measure of these if she is near that same level this year and there is no reason to doubt that she isn’t. She has a wide barrier which is a bit of a negative but hopefully Michael Rodd can give her as kind a run as possible.
I will be saving on the Ken Keys trained Boom ‘n’ Zoom though who won this race last year with a leg in the air, albeit arguably an easier field. This horse has a teriffic 2nd up record, comes off a very simiar preparation last year, has been deliberately kept fresh, aimed at this race and has the services of Glen Boss. His first up run wasn’t too far inferior to todays’ race favourite Vatuvei, he meets that horse 1.5kg better, and is 4 times the price @ $13. His chances are very positive here.
GOOD PUNTING!
This entry was posted in Uncategorized on October 13, 2012.
Racing 13/10/12
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Caulfield Best;
R1 MAHISARA has always promised much and been unlucky with wide barriers quite a bit but he looks set to realise his true potential going on his first up win at Rosehill with a Gear Change of Blinkers On and Tongue Tie On. There is a lot of speed in this race and he should get the right sort of run in behind the leaders and slot in okay from his middle barrier. Although he is yet to win at 1400m the 3.5kg weight drop here from last start should help and the 7 furlongs at Caulfield isn’t as testing as it as at other tracks. $5 about him is just enough value but I wouldn’t be taking much less.
R6 SOLZHENITSYN looks the only realistic chance to upset the champion mare More Joyous. The 1600m is much more suitable for him than the 1400m of the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last start and his effort there in smart time suggested he would be cherry ripe for this 3rd up. He is honest, knows how to win and apparently the strongest horse in the Rob Heathcote stable. He gets a generous 8kg off the favourite here and should be close enough in the run to be good enough. Solidly backed from $7 early doors with $4.80 available now. That is only just above rock bottom odds imo but he will give us a good run for our money.
R8 GATEWOOD looks the bet of the day here if he lives up to his solid form in Europe. He ran a close 2nd to Masterstroke at G2 level last start carrying 2.5kg more than he has tomorrow and had to give that horse 5kg in weight. Masterstroke then ran a very nice race in the best staying race in Europe last weekend to finish 3rd. Given that Gatewood should be too good for some of our plodding stayers at the same class level with only 2kg over the limit. Problem is the early price of $5 vanished quickly with $4 probably more realistic. You can’t get that now but it’s possible some time tomorrow.
R9 SERENE STAR was a certainty beat last time at Moonee Valley carrying a big impost of 59.5kg. That would have given her 7 wins from 11 starts, a pretty impressive record for a genuinely underrated mare. She looks absolutely top drawer to me and the 2nd up run was virtually a carbon copy of her hugely impressive first up win without the breaks going her way. The bonus is she should have plenty of unexpended energy for this. Criag Williams a key booking and she only needs luck in running to figure very prominently in the finish here. She does get back in the field so a few fingers will be crossed on turning for home. She has been backed early from a $15 quote but $12 is freely available and that is stil significant value.
Rosehill;
R4 COUP ACCLAIM is an import who was Gelded at the start of his current preparation. He has been a model of consistency in 7 starts since, winning 2 and placing in the other 5. Very impressive in winning midweek at Canterbury, drops 5kg with the claim for this and meets stablemates Hoylonny & History No Hurdle 1.5kg and 4kg better respectively from the last time they met When CA was 1.8L back in 3rd. Having a light weight on the rain affected track almost certainly advantages him over the other 2 today whereas their last meeting was on a dry surface.
Doomben;
R8 BESEECH looks the value runner here. Take it from me he is very unlucky not to have 3 consecutive wins next to his name being a certainty beaten twice before he finally broke through from a wide barrier in a gutsy performance last start. Since a Tongue Tie and Winkers were added he has won 3 and been a good thing beaten on those other 2 occasions. 3 starts ago he was narrowly defeated by Balkuin whom he meets 4kg better at the weights today. $8 looks very good value about this horse and another bonus is he can sit behind numerous runners who will be vying for the lead. There is crazy speed in this for a race of only 9 runners. Merconman is certainly worth a saver albeit at lesser odds. He chased home a real flying machine called Pentasia last start and shouldered 59kg in the process. Only had the 2 starts in a new stable and won his only other outing for them first up this campaign. He is a dead set dry tracker from way back and the formline through Pentasia in Sydney (Velrosso form) looks excellent for a race of this quality in Brisbane considering he is on the minimum and gets a 5kg weight drop. Pity there is a lot of other speed in the race which could bring him undone but if he doesn’t try to lead and reacts positively to a patient ride today he is going to be very hard to beat.
Caulfield Thousand Guineas 17/10
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I’ve been waiting patiently for this race to come around and for a filly called MOLTO BENE to take her place in it. To be honest I knew bugger all about her as I virtually ignored the whole 2yo season of 2011-2012 and generally speaking I don’t like betting on 3yo races, particularly the early Spring events. I was a somewhat casual observer of the Thousand Guineas prelude on September 22 and might have had a few dollars on the favourite Commanding Jewel as the 1st or 2nd leg of an All Up. I vaguely remember the name of Molto Bene in the run, being trapped wide for most of it and on the turn she was labouring badly out about 12 horses off the fence. It was very safe to dismiss her as being any danger at all. As it turned out she never really looked like winning the race but what the hell was that in the red and black colours hurtling home the last 50 me to run a nice 3rd?? Wasn’t that the jockey silks of Molto Bene for Chrissakes? Surely not?
Rewind!…………… It sure was and her run never ceases to amaze me no matter how many times I watch the tape (err……..Recording)!
You very, very rarely see horses’ do what she did that day. Racing 3 wide at best the whole race, and yet stlil finish off like a train. And it obviously was no fluke given the circumstances and her prior form. The only problem with that sort of run for a young horse is that it can be a ‘gutbuster’. Such a sustained effort under that sort of pressure takes it’s toll on any horse, let alone a 3yo filly. Sometimes perhaps 2 weeks between runs isn’t enough to recover from a run like that depending on the constituion of the animal.
I have to admit I don’t like the idea of any horse coming into a G1 race not having started for 24 days beforehand, but in this case it may well be advantageous, and, even cleverly worked out by her young SA trainer Will Clarken. His reasoning is slightly different though in saying that another run before this race would have taken the edge off her (would have made her too dour) and made it more difficult to win.
The real bonus for MOLTO BENE here is that the field has fallen away quite dramatically in the past couple of weeks with losses of form for some of her rivals and the Flight Stakes winning filly Norzita being withdrawn in the last few days. She has drawn well, has the services of possibly the country’s best jockey Craig Williams and of course the extra 200m looks to be massively in her favour. Not sure that the latter point can be definitively stated for any other runner. At her current quote of $4.40 she is still some value but personally any less than $4 for a 3yo filly yet to win a G1 doesn’t represent much value so I’m getting in early
I do think she is a special and only bad luck will beat her most likely..
I you must take some insurance consider the Sydney filly Longport who has shown in her past 2 starts that she is the 2nd best 3yo filly in Sydney. The best filly in Sydney is Norzita (as mentioned earlier) her vanquisher last start but she has gone for a spell. But Longport has been competiitive with her. She will be up on the pace here, ahead of Molto Bene and one or 2 other well fancieds strong finishers so any leader bias could work in her favour. She is very good value @ $9.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized on October 15, 2012.
Cranbourne Cup day 14/10
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I’ve concentrated on the 2 main races at Cranbourne today and I think I have found some realistic value
R7 Is a very competitive 1000m scamper with a plethora of chances. THE MINISTER appeals to me here at a generous double figure quote. At first glance it might appear that this class of race is a bit too much of an ask but he does drop 5kg here off his last 2 wins. In his win at Caulfield before a spell last December he beat another of todays competitors Lone Star by 3L, and it was in receipt of 3kg. That horse is at a slightly lesser price today so go figure!
Nikita McClean was abord this horse first up this campaign when he won very comfortably at Bendigo this distance at juicy $9 odds. One thing I liked about that win is that he did it from off the pace, whereas he is normally ridden for speed in his races. That should augur well for him today in a race with a strong tempo that he can sit in behind. Ovearall Nikita has won 6 from 9 on the horse with only one other jockey successful on him in his other 11 career starts. The horse is pretty much a 1000m specialist winning 6/11 overall at this distance and 5 from his last 6 attempts. He is 1/1 on Slow tracks so the surface shouldn’t present a problem to him today and there is a possibility of an upgraded to his preferred surface of Dead. @ $13 this horse represents great each way value today.
R8 (Cup)- MIDNIGHT MARTINI appeals to me most here. She has a great formline coming into this finishing alongside Spirit Song twice. That mare ran out of her skin yesterday with a great G1 second to Solzhenitsyn in the Toorak. Watching the video of her last start 3rd to the up an coming Callanish (Spirit Song 2nd) she ran about badly early in the straight there before finishing on quite respectably at the finish. The run indicated 3 things to me;
A) More distance would be to her liking
B) She might have resented the dry surface
C) A Gear change might be advantageous
Well she gets all 3 of those today so it’s very hard not to back her @ $7.50. Blinkers On 2000m and a wet track, a surface she is yet to be beaten on in 2 attempts. Her form last Spring would indicate she has the measure of these if she is near that same level this year and there is no reason to doubt that she isn’t. She has a wide barrier which is a bit of a negative but hopefully Michael Rodd can give her as kind a run as possible.
I will be saving on the Ken Keys trained Boom ‘n’ Zoom though who won this race last year with a leg in the air, albeit arguably an easier field. This horse has a teriffic 2nd up record, comes off a very simiar preparation last year, has been deliberately kept fresh, aimed at this race and has the services of Glen Boss. His first up run wasn’t too far inferior to todays’ race favourite Vatuvei, he meets that horse 1.5kg better, and is 4 times the price @ $13. His chances are very positive here.
GOOD PUNTING!
This entry was posted in Uncategorized on October 13, 2012.
Racing 13/10/12
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Caulfield Best;
R1 MAHISARA has always promised much and been unlucky with wide barriers quite a bit but he looks set to realise his true potential going on his first up win at Rosehill with a Gear Change of Blinkers On and Tongue Tie On. There is a lot of speed in this race and he should get the right sort of run in behind the leaders and slot in okay from his middle barrier. Although he is yet to win at 1400m the 3.5kg weight drop here from last start should help and the 7 furlongs at Caulfield isn’t as testing as it as at other tracks. $5 about him is just enough value but I wouldn’t be taking much less.
R6 SOLZHENITSYN looks the only realistic chance to upset the champion mare More Joyous. The 1600m is much more suitable for him than the 1400m of the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last start and his effort there in smart time suggested he would be cherry ripe for this 3rd up. He is honest, knows how to win and apparently the strongest horse in the Rob Heathcote stable. He gets a generous 8kg off the favourite here and should be close enough in the run to be good enough. Solidly backed from $7 early doors with $4.80 available now. That is only just above rock bottom odds imo but he will give us a good run for our money.
R8 GATEWOOD looks the bet of the day here if he lives up to his solid form in Europe. He ran a close 2nd to Masterstroke at G2 level last start carrying 2.5kg more than he has tomorrow and had to give that horse 5kg in weight. Masterstroke then ran a very nice race in the best staying race in Europe last weekend to finish 3rd. Given that Gatewood should be too good for some of our plodding stayers at the same class level with only 2kg over the limit. Problem is the early price of $5 vanished quickly with $4 probably more realistic. You can’t get that now but it’s possible some time tomorrow.
R9 SERENE STAR was a certainty beat last time at Moonee Valley carrying a big impost of 59.5kg. That would have given her 7 wins from 11 starts, a pretty impressive record for a genuinely underrated mare. She looks absolutely top drawer to me and the 2nd up run was virtually a carbon copy of her hugely impressive first up win without the breaks going her way. The bonus is she should have plenty of unexpended energy for this. Criag Williams a key booking and she only needs luck in running to figure very prominently in the finish here. She does get back in the field so a few fingers will be crossed on turning for home. She has been backed early from a $15 quote but $12 is freely available and that is stil significant value.
Rosehill;
R4 COUP ACCLAIM is an import who was Gelded at the start of his current preparation. He has been a model of consistency in 7 starts since, winning 2 and placing in the other 5. Very impressive in winning midweek at Canterbury, drops 5kg with the claim for this and meets stablemates Hoylonny & History No Hurdle 1.5kg and 4kg better respectively from the last time they met When CA was 1.8L back in 3rd. Having a light weight on the rain affected track almost certainly advantages him over the other 2 today whereas their last meeting was on a dry surface.
Doomben;
R8 BESEECH looks the value runner here. Take it from me he is very unlucky not to have 3 consecutive wins next to his name being a certainty beaten twice before he finally broke through from a wide barrier in a gutsy performance last start. Since a Tongue Tie and Winkers were added he has won 3 and been a good thing beaten on those other 2 occasions. 3 starts ago he was narrowly defeated by Balkuin whom he meets 4kg better at the weights today. $8 looks very good value about this horse and another bonus is he can sit behind numerous runners who will be vying for the lead. There is crazy speed in this for a race of only 9 runners. Merconman is certainly worth a saver albeit at lesser odds. He chased home a real flying machine called Pentasia last start and shouldered 59kg in the process. Only had the 2 starts in a new stable and won his only other outing for them first up this campaign. He is a dead set dry tracker from way back and the formline through Pentasia in Sydney (Velrosso form) looks excellent for a race of this quality in Brisbane considering he is on the minimum and gets a 5kg weight drop. Pity there is a lot of other speed in the race which could bring him undone but if he doesn’t try to lead and reacts positively to a patient ride today he is going to be very hard to beat.
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Caulfield Guineas 2012
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CAULFIELD GUINEAS
1 PIERRO Gai Waterhouse Nash Rawiller
56.5kg
2 EPAULETTE Peter Snowden Kerrin McEvoy 6 56.5kg
3 ALL TOO HARD
Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Dwayne Dunn 3 56.5kg
4 ASHOKAN John O’Shea
James McDonald 8 56.5kg
5 ROAD TRIPPIN Stephen Theodore Ben Melham 5
56.5kg
6 CARRINGBUSH JACK Leon Corstens Jake Noonan (a) 4 56.5kg
7 AWESOME
BRO (NZ) Leon Corstens Craig Williams 2 56.5kg
8 LET GO LENNI Mick Price
Craig Newitt 1
Pierro- The only way I can see him getting beat
here is if he gets stuck wide on a reasonably fast pace. That is a possibility
if Let Go Lenni leads, Ashokan beats him for pace, and Epaulette under the
guidance of McEvoy matches him early. There is also a strong likelihood that
Carringbush Jack will make a beeline for the lead which is probably the only way
it can win. It would also be advnatageous for stablemate Awesome Bro who will
undoubtedly get back in the field and require a strong tempo to figure.
So tactics could play a part here. The only other negative I could pick is that he
has had 2 soft wins this prep and might be a bit underdone 3rd up. The latter is
unlikely under the tutelage of Gai Waterhouse.Otherwise performances and the
times he runs suggest he has 2-4 lengths on everything else in this field.
Epaulette- Really disappointed in the time he posted last
start at Caulfield which was some 2 seconds slower than the G1 Open Sir Rupert
Clarke Stakes. Last year his half brother ran some 3 seconds faster in winning
the prelude and half a second faster than the winner of the Sir Rupert Clarke.
On the positive side he was ridden a bit upside down, closer to the pace, and is said to be a better ‘chaser’. And many favourites carrying a big weight in that race over the years have failed to win it.
Looking at that last win there is possibly a slight doubt on him at a mile too but hard to be
conclusive about that assumption, seeing he did carry 2-3 kg more than any other
horse. And he might have been a shade ‘underdone’ purposely by the stable to
leave some gas in the tank for his grand final. After all his half brother
Helmet was a spent force after last Spring after a couple of gut busting runs in
this race and the prelude.
He has a hope here if he is ridden patiently
(as he was in the Golden Rose) and Pierro has to do a lot of work on a fast pace.
The likelihood is that McEvoy will try to stay as close as possible to
Pierro in the run though fearing that his horse will have to run too good a late
sectional from back in the field to catch the hotpot.
Given that I doubt he can overcome Pierro.
All Too Hard- I think a lot of people have
been ‘conned’ into thinking he is a lot better horse than he actually is being a
half brother to the champion mare. There was a massive boom on him early after
winning his first 3 starts quite easily BUT when you look back at them now he
beat very little of quality (hard to know then though) and there was nothing
particularly special about the times he was running.
For mine his last run in the George Main was the acid test. That was his chance to stand up and be
counted but he failed to flatter, missing the start and racing ungenerously in
the straight when he still looked a fleeting hope. Still unproven at the distance too which is of some concern.
What I will say though is that he has been unlucky this preparation in regard to race tempo. Not once has there been a decent speed to bring him into a race properly. Law of averages says that
could change on Saturday and once again there is a big ‘push’ from the stable
who say they might have ironed out his start problems with a barrier blanket
addition, and given that “he will blow them away”.
The other positive is he comes back to the anti clockwise direction where he is unbeaten from 2 starts and may be more comfortable handling.
But does he need to be Gelded to race more tractably? No filles/mares in this field might help.
He possibly deserves one more chance and is generous odds but my gut feeling tells me he
just isn’t good enough and would need everything to fall into place. For
starters he needs to jump cleanly, sit behind a strong tempo, and Pierro to
underperform.
Ashokan- Failed to come up to expectations in the Prelude when he got what looked a handly 2kg weight pull from Epaulette.
Possibly better for that first experience in Melbourne as was stablemate Foxwedge in the Autumn. But on what we’ve seen thus far in his career he is 3-4 lengths shy of the top grade 3yo’s, especially Pierro.
Road Trippin- 7.5L astern of Pierro in the Bill Stutt Stakes suggests he is
nowhere near good enough to win this and just as unlikely to
place.
Carringbush Jack- Pierro gave him a 5L towelling in the
Bill Stutt though he did put in a respectable performance there in pretty good
time. He could lead this field and possibly hang on for a place but in general
he seems outclassed.
Awesome Bro- He looks like a genuine chance
of running a place here on what he has done at his past 2 starts. Back to level
weights here is the problem for him after he literally ‘ate up the ground’
behind Epaulette in a leader dominated Prelude. There is no doubt this horse is
genuine, versatile and will run out the 1600m strongly. The latter is significant because the 2 closest to the favourite in betting might not.
Doubtful he can actually win the race from a class angle but funnier things have happened and at least you’d expect some pressure up front to unsettle the odds on shot, which could play into his hands.
Let Go Lenni- He is an improver who pushed winner Epaulette all the way last start in the Prelude after looking well beaten when that horse overtook him. Meets it on 3kg worse terms
though and the time was ordinary in the Prelude and possibly suited to the on
pacers. Liklely to lead from the inside gate and give some sort of showing to
the home turn. Perhaps another though who could struggle at the mile at only his
4th start.
1. Pierro
2. Awesome Bro
3. Epaulette.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized on October 12, 2012.
To put it simply this horse is it! He is big, athletic and still looks open to further improvement. His first 2 wins here were gutsy, the 3rd Tradesmanlike, and the 4th showed us just how serious a racehorse he really is. Every win here he has stepped up in class, and been slightly more impressive each time which is quite a diffcult feat. He has pretty much beaten the handicapper here, thus weighted to win, and should be suited by the Caulfield circuit.
The wide barrier isn’t ideal but with limited pace in the race he should cross the field easily enough. Perhaps an even bigger obstacle though is the appearance of Voila Ici, who is almost certainly going to keep him company up front, and is even more likely to take up the running. That is definitely the intention of his trainer Peter Moody who is more than happy for that scenario to unfold given the horse is a natural front runner, and he has 2 other runners in the race that should be advantaged given a truly run race. GLENCADAM GOLD is apparently a pretty relaxed horse as long as he is allowed to run at his own tempo, and not be restrained. Given Jim Cassidy just lets the horse stride, rather than go after V,I and try and match motors, I’m reasonably confident he can prevail, at least over that horse. One thing to consider though is that VI is ‘a bit of a head case’ and he got noticeably stirred up before the Turnbull Stakes. He might not behave himself on Saturday either in front of an even bigger crowd. If that is the case he might not jump cleanly and GG could get his own way in front.
MY QUEST FOR PEACE- Is sensationally weighted in my opinion. Earlier this year he was in receipt of 2.5kg from Dunaden and beat him home 1.75L at Newmarket over this distance. In July 2011 he was in receipt of 3kg from Godolphins’ Lost In The Moment, won that race and finished 7L in front of him. LITM came here at it’s very next start and finished only 3L from Dunaden in the Melbourne Cup at roughly level weights. All this suggests that MQFP is at worst 1kg inferior to Dunaden in quality, but he gets 4.5kg relief off that horse here, and has fared better in the barrier draw. I’ve watched a few of his recent races and he can race on or close enough to the pace, and that should be an asset here. Surely Corey Brown won’t make the same mistake here as he did on Gatewood last week. He will likely be more aggressive this time and not get bottled up in the run. Trainer Luca Cumani sounds bullish about the horse and the OTI syndicate chief even moreso. There is no doubt that he has a lot of quality, is tough, versatile and suited to the distance. I’m not sure he can win the Melbourne Cup (even if he does win this) given he is yet to win beyond 2800m ( no import has won the cup that hasn’t perfomed well at 3100 or more), but he is definitely a very serious chance in this.
And he represents tremendous value at slightly better than double figure odds. Possible he could drift out even further in the market too, having not set foot here before with a lot of punters ignorant of his true ability.
http://brisburghphil.wordpress.com/2012/10/18/caulfield-cup-2012/
I read a preview by CHAMPION PICKS were they say the horse has little chance and should be 20/1 - and that was written before the barrier draw.
Racing 20/10/12 (Caulfield Cup day)
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Quite a difficult day on paper with a number of 3yo races early in the day that I don’t want to fall into the trap of assessing. Not enough exposed form, rising in distance, and there is always something capable of vast improvement at normally decent odds. Beside those races there seems to be a number of obvious standouts that have been well found by Betting Agencies and Punters alike. Those type of horses don’t pay the bills unfortunately and you can almost guarantee that 1 or 2 of them will get beat. MAGNIER, KABAYAN KING’S ROSE, HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME, MOSHEEN, DARE TO DREAM & HOT SNITZEL are the type of horse I am speaking of today, and all are a bit shorter than they need to be in early fixed odds market. Hopefully a few of the following can stand up to be counted today;
MR7 WATERFORD HILL is promising and could peak in this 2000m event today. Since he thrashed the subsequent JRA Cup winner Bianmick over 1800m here on an unsuitable track surface (and one that suited it) he was been totally out of luck, missing the start badly in Sydney and being well beaten in an on pace dominated race. Pertinent to note thought that the first 2 placegetters went on to Quinella the Epsom. At Moonee Valley last start he was jagged back from an outside barrier and basically didn’t see daylight from thereon. I find a watch of the replay ‘disturbing’ to say the least. He should have at least placed in that race and the winner of that event, Sertorius has since bolted in on Thousand Guineas day in a higher class race. He should acquit himself well here @ $7.50 or better and Craig Newitt the enforcer on board could be a very positive sign. He is 1/1 and was the rider when winning here 3 back.
MR8 GLENCADAM GOLD as per Caulfield Cup post. It was only yesterday I realised that Gai Waterhouse had Gelded the horse on arrival here. Most likely an import or former import is going to win this race and this bloke is acclimatised, in stellar form and most probably going to peak today. His trainer will have him superbly fit to go into battle today and he should be able to handle the likely pressure served up to him today by the Moody trainer Voila Ici. Getting out in the market to $5 and even better might be available.
MR9 NEW BEGINNING is massive each way value here @ $26+. I like her formline through Nocturnelle seeing that mare was able to win quite impressively last Saturday in Sydney at listed level. At Newcastle she was beaten only half a length by that mare in a 2 horse war and beat home Miss Stellabelle by 3L in receipt of 1kg and NB gets a further .5kg from her here. Miss S then came to Melbourne and was only 1.5L astern of Mosheen. This mare is incredibly lightly raced at 6 years of age and has an enviable 50% winning strike rate with 6 wins from 12. She could be open to further improvement and appears to be lethal fresh, so the 30 day break here should be suitable.
MR10 SERENE STAR did the job for us last week and although she rises in weight here I am loathe to ignore her prospects with only 2kg over the minimum. Her 3 runs this preparation have been virtually identical with a characteristic withering burst over the final 200m. She is obviously a high quality mare that always puts in evidenced by her last 8 starts of which she has won 6 and been a certainty beaten at 1 other. $6.50 on offer is well and truly good enough to go to the well once more. Not particulary worried by the 7 day backup as she didn’t have a hard run last week and has won off a 10 day break in the past.
SR3 MERLIN MUSTANG drops 4kg here off an incredibly gutsy win at the Randwick Kensington track 2nd up. He was 3 wide there on the pace in a fast run race and looked a certainty to be run down the last 100m but dug deep with Blinkers on first time. That was only his 2nd run for a new trainer Tubman and last preparation he was only 1.5L from the likes of Quality G1 3yo’s Laser Hawk & Said Com. Pretty sure this horse has since been scratched at the barrier so hopefully he isn’t a run short here. That was a bit of a gutbuster 2nd up so it could be a blessing in disguise. $5 is good enough about him in a very winnable race.
PR8 NIBLICK is an ex Victorian that gets my attention here though I don’t like recommending first up horses, and I’m not overly happy about him drawing barrier 1 coupled with the fact he won’t be ridden aggressively according to the trainer. The horse is being set for the Railway and other G1′s this Summer and my main thinking in backing him is a theory that the quality of horses going around in Perth at the moment is weaker than it normally is. I’m basing that assumption mainly on the fact that it’s best galloper Luckygray can give 7kg and a walloping to almost the 2nd best Perth can offer, yet he pretty much failed to flatter when sent East recently. I would estimate Niblick to be a 2-3kg inferior horse to Luckygray at most so to get into a WA Listed race with only 2kg over the limit is a bit of a luxury and he is a horse that normally excels fresh. Ideally I’d like to see him have a run over there but @ $6 he is probably worth an investment.
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Racing 21/10
Seymour Cup;
Hard to look past the obvious here but having said that I doubt CALLANISH will get his own way in here. He is an on pacer but so are most of the others here and the race should be competitive. I would imagine that trainer Mick Price will be happy to take a sit here instead of leading (as he has quoted), but hard to be conclusive about it.
LAUNAY- He should be right on the pace here but the alley is awkward and just not sure he is quite the same horse that we saw in the Autumn of 2011. Possible he is more suited to 1400m too and the big weight isn’t exactly conducive to him peaking today. Blinkers Back on but not sure that is going to be a massive plus.
OVER QUOTA- Another on pacer but he has drawn better than the top weight. Nice enough run first up but he didn’t do a great deal 2nd up last time albeit a Slow track. Has a really poor 1st up and 2nd up strike rate so not sure he will be at his best here and he’d need to be to carry this weight. Super record this distance though and he much prefers the firmer tracks. Certainly a must for exotics but not quite sure he can win.
CALLANISH- Very promising horse who has won his only 7 starts. Relaxed beautifully in front last time at Caulfield when he easily beat a decent field with the form out of the race sensational. Runner up Spirit Song was narrowly beaten in the G1 Toorak and 3rd placegetter Midnight Martini bolted in the Cranbourne Cup last Sunday. This race is easier quality wise but should be more competitive in regard to early tempo. Rises 2.5kg in weight, has to contend with a wide barrier and drops back in distance so I’d hardly be keen to take odds on. $2.50 would suffice but that is hardly likely to happen.
MR CHARD- Really struggling for from at present and I’d be waiting for him to show something before recommending.
LORD OF BRAZIL- At the top of his game at present and one of only 2 horses in the race to have won at this track. Was forced to race on pace last time but that was largely due to drawing wide.He can be ridden more conservatively today and given that would seem to be the horse that is most suited in regards to tempo. Absolutely thriving with his runs being spaced and the 28 days here is almost indentical to his last win where he jumped from 1400-1600m. Not sure whether he can tackle the favourite here but I think he is the logical danger and is well and truly the best value @ $9+. The runner up to him last start has since gone okay in town when 4th to the up an coming Sertorius.
TRANQUILITY- She is the other horse to have won here. 4 wins in her career and each time she has been right up on the pace and has led outright in 2 of them. You would think that connections would be very keen to lead with her today which adds further pressure up front. Just a pity that the race has so many other on pacers for her to contend with otherwise she’d be a great chance. I doubt she has quite enough quality to get away with a win in this and is probably better suited in mares grade.
MIDNIGHT GLORY – Would really shock if he won and the odds suggest that. Not up to this class.
ORBITAL MOTION- He too could have found an easier race.
TRIBAL ROCK- Has a tendency to miss the start. Did so last time behind Sertorius at Caulfield before being used up to lead. He battled on quite well when headed and should be fitter for the run, his first in Blinkers. He has a fairly quick back up here as that race was on Wednesday. Not overly well weighted here and the fact that Lord Wimble finished just off him last time suggests that Lord Of Brazil might have him covered given that LOB gave this horse 2kg last time. Not sure we can dismiss him though and it is interesting to note that in 2 of his wins he has come from well off the pace. Don’t know what the tactics are here but Oliver is aboard and he would be well advised to ride him back in the field and get some cover. If that transpires he definitely has a chance of causing an upset. Probably overs at $9.50.
Summary;
Hard to be confident in finding one to beat the favourite but there are 2 possible dangers to my way of thinking and they are Lord Of Brazil & Tribal Rock. Boxing those 2 with Callanish in a Trifecta might be the best option.
Race 9;
I want to be on ANOTHER PRELATE here. He carried a massive weight of 64kg first up and ran a nice 2nd on a heavy track at Geelong on 28/09. He gets a 23 day break here and second up last time ran a great 2nd to Smokin’ Joey in super quick time at Sandown over 1400m. The start after he was unlucky to go down to Dance With Her in the Pakenham Cup. Both those horses went on to bigger things winning at Group and listed level . This is a restricted class race, he only has 1.5kg over the minimum and has drawn to advantage. It looks the right race for him though I’d prefer another 100m- 200m. No price up yet but I’d be expecting $5+.
Racing 31/10/12
Bendigo Cup;
SILENT SURROUND caught the eye last time in the Herbert Power and drops considerably in grade here off a 3L 5th and stays at the same distance. She didn’t really get clear galloping room in that race and has the services of Damien Oliver to negate a clearer path tomorrow. Interestingly this is her 4th run from just over a 7 week break in July. Last preparation 4th up she romped in at Morphetville in an RST94 race over 1950m by 4.5L. Fourth up in her prior preparation she ran a close 2nd in the Listed Tokyo City Cup over 1600m. In fact all her 4th up runs in her career have been amongst, if not her best ever efforts. She isn’t the most reliable mare going around but her last 2 runs have pointed to her peaking here and this is well within her capabilities. She should be a tad shorter than the $6 currently available especially with the favourite Excuded not taking his place in the field.
R10;
ORIENTAL RUBY is worth backing here at what seems generous double figure odds. She was respectable first up when beaten 3.7L and the 1400m is more suitable for her. The form out of that race has been absolutely sensational with the winner Big Buddie a certainty beaten behind open class sprinter Sea Lord last Friday night at M/Valley. 2nd placegetter Honey Flower has since won stepping up in class albeit in Mares grade, and 3rd placegetter Felidea has since won nicely in restricted Grade at Geelong. And significantly this mare has only recorded 2 career wins from 14 starts and both have been here and she is 2/2 in fact. Her best form is evidenced by one of her wins where she relegated the likes of Berenger, African Heat & Oregon Spirit who have all gone on to win in better class. She is no world beater but this is hardly a strong race and she gets her chance particularly if the track is relatively dry. Nicely drawn and top jockey Luke Nolan rides.
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" has the services of Damien Oliver to negate a clearer path tomorrow."
so ollie is going to ensure it can't get clear running?! @-)
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On the surface it looks like a very ‘thin’ day on chances as far as Derby Days go, with questionable depth and a lot of short priced favourites, so let me start by saying I do think that all the favourites do look the ones to beat. That doesn’t mean they will though and in the quest for value (once again) I have come up with the following;
R2 Lexus- It’s a process of elimination for me here. I don’t really like imports, or former imports having their runs close together. Conversely I do like the local stayers to have no more than 14 days between runs.
KELINNI appeals to me here despite not looking that well in at the weights. His last run with more than 14 days between runs was a beauty 2 starts ago when hopelessly wide throughout yet still prevailing. Chris Waller then surprisingly backed him up in the Metrop something he said he wasn’t keen to do. The horse than really well to run a well beaten second to Glencadam Gold who completley dominated up on the speed. This horse is super honest with 7 wins and 6 placings from 17 career starts, and only once has he been beaten more than 2.5L. I think there will be good pace in this race and he can sit slightly foreward of midfield getting the first crack at the leaders. Double figures available about this former import which represents tremendous value each way. Bart Cummings could pull a rabbit out of the hat with Dare To Dream no doubt. Very flat first go over 2400m this prep last start and Blinkers going on. He has been an immature type from day 1 so the Gear Change could be critical. And so often Barts’ horses find a leg coming to Flemington. Excluded looks nicely weighted here meeting Gatewood better at the weights for beating him (maybe luckily!) in the Herbert Power when he wore a Tongue Tie for the first time. But has the Williams camp erred here by giving him 21 days into this race, rather than the 14 which he seems to excel with? We’ll find out at 11a.m! Gatewood clearly the one they all have to beat but there is no value there whatsoever.
Race 3 Wakeful- Very impressed by the provincial win of TYANNA at Bendigo over 1600m in nice time. Never really out of second gear despite being challenged for the lead that day and she won as she liked. Her dam is the dual Adelaide Cup placed Lacey Underall so she should relish the step up to 2000m. Can’t say I’ve been overly impressed with the 3yo group form this Spring so this filly could make an impact today. I reckon she is about a $5 chance but we can get $7 or maybe better later.
Race 5 Mackinnon is a sit and watch race with Ocean Park so short in the market after what appeared to be a bit of a gutbuster last week. He is the class runner of the race but untested on a backup. The 2 that interest me most at odds are;
Prairie Star- Very nice run first up here when ran out of puff the last bit with a massive weight. He actually beat home the subsequent English derby winner Pour Moi early in his career at this distance and the stable is adamant they have improved him condition wise since he has been here ,after watching him race in Europe looking in very poor condition before the purchase. He needs to place at least to get a Melbourne Cup run so I’m expecting a decent effort here.
Zabeelionaire- Is taking the typical Bart Cummings route preparation to the Melbourne Cup and was less than 3L off them in the Caulfield Cup. Thing is this horse needs to be wound up down the outside in the straight and that hasn’t happened yet this preparation. It should today, and he could be a real blowout if that transpires. So often you see a good run in the Caulfield Cup followed by a win in this.
I’m not suggesting either can win but they do interest me. Obviously Alcopop should be competitve and worth noting too that this race has been completely dominated by on pacers in recent years which also speaks favourably for the chances of Glass Harmonium & December Draw. A bonus for both is they do like Flemington. A very open and interesting race if Ocean Park performs below expectations.
Race 6 Derby- Don’t like it at all with the Norman Robinson horses looking very evenly matched and the Geelong Classic form looking similar to that form through Escado who met a few of them in the UCI stakes at Flemington. The Champion Stakes form through It’s A Dundeel/Proisir looks stronger so I see this as a toss up between IAD and the horse that beat him last week SUPER COOL. I have to go with the latter at much better value. He just seemed to outstay IAD last week and should be in front of him in the run today. Quite a strong looking colt similar in bulk to Mark Kavanaghs’ Melbourne Cup winner Shocking. Once Kav gets his stayers in winning form they generally hold it and I like the fact this horse has had 10 and 11 days into this last 2 runs and it hasn’t bothered him. So the backup here shouldn’t either. IAD has to peak again here but he may well have been underdone last week (purposely) and might be too good to make it 4 NZ Derby winners in a row. Happy to go with SC though as he looks the one who has come good at the right time.
R7 Myer Classic- SECRET ADMIRER looks very well in here back to Mares Grade for the first time thisi preparation and at level weights. The only time she met Streama she gave her 3kg and a 3L beating. She has met Yosei 6 times and beat her on 5 of those occasions conceding weight nearly every time. Red Tracer 4 times, beaten her 3 and is clearly a better mare than her at a mile. She is some query coming back from the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup, but she has won her 2 G1 mile races off a 7 day backup so that run in a fast run race might just peak her for this. It was a pretty good run too as she clearly beat home the 3 on pace horses in front of her in that race. $7.50 is amazing value for her and there could be better on offer later.
R8 Yellowglen Stakes- PAMPELONNE is definitely underrated in the market here. He was totally unsuited coming back in distance to 1000m 2nd up, and being a solid 1400m horse should be suited down the straight six today. His form might look slightly inferior to some here but I don’t think we have seen the best of him. For instance he was unluckly in the BTC Cup at Doomben and totally unsuited having to back up within 7 days there. There should be a lot of speed here and he should race just in behind it. HMDYLM is very hard to beat but at close to odds on look on. Don’t leave out the mare Miss Marx either. At the weights she is right in the mix and could be the blouser late with the speed right on. Looks like there has been backing for Pampelonne this morning $8.50 into $7 and that could be a good sign. Notably Hugh Bowman is 3/3 on him and goes back on today. He is a strong jockey which this horse possibly needs.
Sydney;
R5 UATE gets his chance here 3rd up. Probably ready to peak now after being Gelded before the start of this preparation. Massive speed in the race and he is one of only a few that can run on over the top of it. $4+ good enough for me.
Brisbane;
R5 CRACCO impressed me at the midweeks comfortable winning a race in which I backed another runner. He looks progressive and he achieved that win with some ease. He is a winner and a few of these have suspect strike rates. Very happy with the $5 i got last night.
Perth;
R6 Asian Beau Stakes- I tipped NIBLICK first up and nothing went right with him missing the start clearly then racing erratically on the inside of runners finding trouble. He was only beaten 3L and very happy to see him drawn wider today to give him some galloping room. Jockey change perhaps a positive and the odds definitely are. With only 1kg over the minimum he only needs to find his best form to win this. $7+ available.
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Mornington 4/11/2012
R6 Peninsula Cup;
I tipped ANOTHER PRELATE on here 2 weeks ago at a good price and thought he had the race parcelled up with 200m to go. He got bloused late by 2 swoopers, but he didn’t have a hard run and today looks a very winnable race for him at his home track. The step up to 1600m is probably a plus for him as the 1300m last time looked a shade short for him on paper. Given the pace in this race with Mr Make Believe & Jungle Ruler engaged he can be the stalker this time and finish off late rather than be the sitting shot like last time. Third up last time he stepped up 350m in distance on a Heavy track with a 33 day break and just failed to peg back the subsequent triple Group placed mare Dance With Her. That is good form for this. The only negatives for him is he might be better suited with a bit more give in the track and a few more days between runs but both are inconclusive and I’m really struggling to find enough positives for the others to counterbalance those small doubts.
Mr Make Believe will probably start favourite BUT he goes to 1600m for the first time and he would prefer it wetter than even Another Prelate would. He isn’t a big horse and has to shoulder 60kg with Jungle Ruler (last years winner) likely to pester him up front, along with possibly one or two others. Ulundi would be a distinct hope given his form this time last year and his unbeaten 3/3 record here. He drops from G1 company into this but he was beaten over 10L in the Toorak and at his previous start so is impossible to tip for this. He has been freshened up though and has improved significantly to win his previous 2 starts at this track so perhaps he is worth a saver especially with the tempo likely to be strong up front.
But ANOTHER PRELATE almost wins this by default really with too many negatives around for the rest of the field. $4 probably good enough.
R7 Orbit Fitness Handicap- Is a very ordinary event and for that reason I am keen on the Kiwi horse STORM RIDER to make it back to back wins. He looked very strong winning at his first Australian start off a two and a half month break leading all the way with nothing making an impression on him in the straight or on the line. He won none of his first 4 outings (beaten 5+ lengths on 3 occasions) but then the Blinkers were applied and he has won 3 of his following 6 starts with a further 3 placings. And in all of those placings he has been beaten less than a length. The 60kg impost shouldn’t bother him as he did carry 70.5kg to win in NZ over 2000m prior to a spell. A wide barrier might but I should imagine connections will be keen to take up the running again here, and there doesn’t seem to be too many other on pacers in the race. Not sure what the story is with a change of trainer from Kevin Myers to Carlo Vidotto (who was formerly an owner) but there is no reason to suspect he won’t repeat his last start effort. Pleasantly surprised at the $6.50 on offer her because he looks the logical favourite to me and I do love it when a horse has shown a very favourable response to a Gear Change.
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I think he did that but she didn't perform and the only reason I didn't tip the winner was it's price. I should have mentioned to save on him as that was what I actually did.
Not sure why no attempt to lead on Storm Rider but it seems he wasn't good enough anyway after a reasonable run in transit.
Flemington Cup Day Racing 6/11/12
Race 2;
SHIHABI is a winner from the Peter Moody stable. I’m keen to follow the formline out of her last win where she came from last on the turn to beat all comers, inlcuding Another Prelate into 3rd. He bolted in the Mornington Peninsula Cup on Sunday by 6L. Beautifully drawn to perhaps take up a more forward position in a race perhaps a little devoid of genuine pace. $5+ is good enough to invest on her.
Race 3;
GARUD looks the goods here after a super win at Geelong over 2400m, Blinkers First time. He could have won by a lot more than the 3.8L margin, eased down over the concluding stages. The race was run at a fast pace and was a very solid staying test which should indicate that the 2800m isn’t beyond this horse today. This former import has promised a bit and finally realised some of that potential, and most imports do generally handle Flemington well which is important. The 4.5kg weight drop into this is a massive bonus and his form behind Destiny’s Kiss earlier this preparation looks very soild now. Not that happy about the price but I guess anything over $4 is acceptable.
Race 8;
ECLAIR SURPRISE appeals a bit as he did win this course and distance as a 3yo whilst in the Peter Moody stable and much was thought of him at the time. He has largely failed to flatter since after being gelded andchanging stables to Robert Smerdon. He seems to be back on track now with another new trainer Phillip Stokes in Adelaide, winning comfortably 2nd up in the Murray Bridge Cup.
Dominic Tourner rode him to victory there and retains the ride today. How sweet a victory it would be for him after losing the winning ride on Alcopop in the Mackinnon Stakes. The 4.5kg he gets off the 2 class runners here should be enough although Tribal Rock looks a distinct danger with 1.5kg less. EC is twice the price though and interesting he did beat home the very in form Sertorius back in March with that horse in receipt of 3kg. 2 starts ago Tribal Rock couldn’t get within 3L of Sertorius in receipt of 2.5kg. Given that EC just might have his measure.
R9;
Not overly keen to bet on this race so I’m not tipping but wanted to point out that Unpretentious won so well first up and the form out of the race is excellent with Run Diego & Le Bonisr winning well since. Should be a good sign and at least he has some experience down the straight already. He is up in class though and currently favourite so no real value to my mind.
R10;
FLYINGCONI carries the Another Prelate formline when just beaten by Shihabi first up at Seymour. After watching the replay again I’m dumbfounded as to how he didn’t get the photo verdict as he looked to have won by a head at least. It was an excellent run as he looked beaten with 100m to go but rallied extremely well. He is a 2 time winner here at this distance and a Nose Roll goes on today. There seems to be very good pace in this race through Snitsky, Mosse Diva, Beseech and maybe a few others so that should suit him down to the ground being a midfield/backmarker type. He is massive value @ $15+.
Melbourne Cup 2012
The race that stops a state (being a Queenslander I know the Nation part is crap!) is here again and I doubt whether there has ever been a better field with more depth and/or intrigue. Looking at this years’ edition I’d say there is probably 3 horses that couldn’t possibly win so there is a necessity to try and separate the remaining 21 somehow. I haven’t got the time or inclination to bother reviewing each runner on here but will make comment on a limited number of my own fancies. Maybe recent history can shed some light, so I came up with a few pertinent points;
1. 11 of the last 14 winners have carried 54.5kg or less. Only Makybe Diva (twice) and the Japanese horse Delta Blues have carried more.
2. The last 5 winners have been 4 or 5 years of age and 7 of the last 11 have been. Again Makybe Diva, Delta Blues & also Media Puzzle the exception.
3. In the past 27 years only 6 horses have failed to finish in the first 4 at their previous start. One was a terribly unlucky 6th in the Caulfield Cup (Jezabeel) and the others came out of the Mackinnnon (3) and Cox Plate (1).
4. 15 of the last 27 winners have won their previous start (that’s better than 50%) and the last 3 winners fall in to that category.
6 . 9 of the last 14 winners have dropped significantly in weight (2kg or more).
7. 26 of the last 27 winners have started in Australia prior.
Summing up then we are looking for a horse preferably (But not necessarily) 4 or 5 years of age, carrying 54.5kg or less, dropping in weight by 2kg or more, finishing in the first 4 placings last start (or preferably won it).
The ideal historical candidates here appear to be KELINNI & ETHIOPIA. ZABEELIONAIRE figures too as he did race in the Mackinnon on Saturday coming 5th and we have already seen Subzero do the exact same thing.
Tempo;
I’m definitely thinking we could have less competition for the lead here than normaly is the case. Voila Ici who pestered Glencadam Gold in the Caulfield Cup is not going to be ridden as forward this time, and aside from possibly Mourayan & Galileo’s Choice there doesn’t look to be much opposition for Gai’s Charge, so there is a distinct possibility Glencadam Gold could get an easy time of it in front here and take some chasing down. There is no doubt in my mind he is a better horse than what we saw in the Caulfield Cup. and Kelinni pretty much proved that in the Lexus on Saturday. He couldn’t get within cooee of GG in the Metrop but accounted for that G3 field quite adequately at the top of the weights. Back to one of his regular jockeys in Tommy Berry who hypothesises the horse is better on the more spacious tracks like Newcastle, Randwick and hopefully Flemington, where he can get into a rhythm(less turns) and not have to change stride too quickly. Mourayan and Galileo’s Choice could get nice runs in behind him too and their chances definitely increase if that scenario develops, being the first horses to take on the leader off a possibly moderate tempo.
I’m going almost totally against recent history with my top 4 selections and taking a risk that a run here is no longer a necessity. Red Cadeaux went within a whisker of managining it last year.
I have them in this order;
GALILEO’S CHOICE- Is my top pick. He hasn’t had a run here but on the plus side he has amazing fresh record and that is why the stable opted out. Huge strike rate (8/16), has pace and I also noticed he is out of a Sir Ivor mare. Sir Tristram was a son of Sir Ivor and how successful that sireline has been in staying races here for such a long period.
He easily accounted for the Aidan O’Brien trained Treasure Beach last start and it
since ran 2nd in the US at G1 level. It was less than 5 lengths off Cirrus De
Aigles at WFA a while ago and that horse is almost certainly the 2nd best 2000m
horse in the world giving Frankel a bit of a contest 2 weeks ago.
A quality flat horse that can Hurdle too at longer distances. Looking at his form he has twice won fresh off Hurdle campaigns at much lesser distance than 2 miles. And he has that 3000m+ form that seems so important to imports winning this race. I’m salivating over what he might do in a 3200m flat race!
MOUNT ATHOS- I was actually keen to ignore him in this but have had to have a
massive rethink. Looking at weights over in the UK I thought Galileo’s Choice
had him covered. But I miscalculated and as it turns out Mount Athos looks to be
a 2kg better horse and only has to concede him .5kg.
I am using a horse called BROWN PANTHER as my measuring stick. He was 4L off Danedream at WFA over there recently. Dunaden was beaten 3.5L in the same race. At his
subsequent start BP got smashed 3.25L by Mount Athos at level weights, so in
effect you could say in Europe that Mount Athos is a 2.75L superior horse to
Dunaden. I use 1kg=1L or close enough so in effect with the 5.5kg receipt in
weight he gets off Dunaden he could forseeably beat him by 8L. That is very
unlikely to happen but you can clearly see he is extremely well weighted. He needs a dry track apparently, should get it, has a nice draw and looks extremely hard to beat.
3/3 for Luca Cumani thus far and the owner had him picked out for this race 2 years ago before he even owned him! He has a love affair with this race apparently.
My only real query is the 3200m. 2 goes beyond 3200m for 2 failures but both were at
3600-3700m and he was beaten around 5L on both occasions, so not sure you can call them
failures in reality.
DUNADEN- Is just an absolute freak so I’m not sure the weight is going to prevent him winning this. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a horse try so hard and certainly never seen one ‘pin the ears back’ (literally) and stretch out the head and neck like this horse does. His breeding is absolutely woeful with a sire who had a shocking racetrack record, and a Dam line that had faled to breed a stakes winner in 8 generations until he came along. He is 4/4 in this part of the world (3 here and 1 in Hong Kong) and he has carried a sizeable weight on 3 of those occasions. Craig Williams gets on really well with him and is just about the best big race jockey we have, and certainly one of the best in the world. He is a triple G1 winner now and certainly deserves the 59kg after a comprehensive win in the Caulfield Cup.
ETHIOPIA – is probably the best of the locals and the real X-factor in the race. He comes off a fabulous run in our best WFA race, ridden upside down to race on the pace, yet toughed it out once headed to be beaten only 4.5L with Blinkers On first time. He can gain that margin back and more with a 4kg weight drop and a rise in distance. The only time we have seen him start beyond 2400m was when he won the AJC Derby at his 4th start. To my mind it takes an exceptional horse to do that and the win was monstrous, looking to have no possible hope on the turn, but coming with a withering burst late in the piece. If he reproduces that run here, again at his 4th run in a preparation then he will just about win. The Blinkers are staying on and the aim is to ride him just forward of midfield, which is incidentally the best position to be in, historically to win this race. He is a natural born stayer and jockey Rhys McLeod states “he has an unbelievable aerobic capacity”. He will need all of it to win this given the unorthodox preparation and lack of experience, but it is possible.
Best roughie;
I’m going with the other french galloper Tac De Boistron. I’mignoring his run in the Geelong Cup and in fact looking at it as a positive. The last 2 winners of the Cup have come out of that race and Crime Scene ran poorly in it yet managed to get the runner up spot behind Shocking in 2009. This horse just went around for the run and seemed to be wearing bandages. He isn’t a 2400m horse, and certainly not a fresh horse so the familiarisation and step up to 3200m should assist him hugely for this race. I’ve watched a couple of his wins in France and both were outstanding efforts, particularly the acceleration he showed at 31OOm. Any rain around is going to assist him greatly but even without that he has some hope of winning. A French jockey back aboard is also encouraging. AT $71 & $19 the place he is well worth each way speculation.
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Emirates Stakes Day 2012
Emirates Stakes;
Historically- this race is almost always a Punters nightmare with only really one of the past 12 winners easily found. That was All Silent in 2008 and he is the only horse to have saluted in this race off a last start win. Right back to 2002 no horse has won the race unless it has dropped in weight by 1kg or more. Age has no relevance and neither does form in reality with many winners coming off a below average performance at it’s previous start. You don’t require a miler to win it with the likes of Albert The Fat, All Silent & Valedictum winning since 2005 and they were more or less better at the shorter distances of 1400m.
I’m not sure we can use that dropping in weight clause in regard to picking this years winner either because the weights are very compressed here and we have a 54.5kg minimum. In previous years the mimumum weight has been 52kg or less so the higher weighted horses’ would appear to be quite well in her with only 3.5kg more than the bottom weight.
Tempo is rarely a factor historically although I don’t recall any out and out leaders wver winning the event. With 3 possible on pacers scratched from todays’ event the pace has rather dropped out of the race so it may be wise to look for something close to the pace or at least drawn nearer the inside as the outside horses’ could well struggle off a moderate pace. Having said that though there is a bit of give in the track today and the track has been well used so swoopers down the outside may well be advantaged.The rail is out 8m which you would think might nullify any advantage for those who are coming wide in the straight. Horses likely to be on pace here are FAT AL, HAPPY TRAILS (possibly), ROLLING PIN & PEAR TART with SOLZHENITSYN & FREE WHEELING likely to be handy.
Once again a very open race and hard to say there is a runner that can’t win. I’ve come up with 3 that look very hard to beat;
FAWKNER probably has to be the head of my list from a good barrier. He would be one of the few runners in the race that has been deliberately aimed at the race and the Williams team are quite good at peaking them when it counts at G1 level. Perhaps he isn’t well weighted and is up in class but I doubt there has ever been a better Flemington horse contest the race and he is only 2.5kg over the limit. He has won 3 races out of 4 here this preparation (the failure 1st up) and has arguably overcome track bias on each occasion. Apart from the straight races this Spring horses finishing wide on the track to win (around a circle) have been virtually non existent but he has done it 3 times which has to be a good sign. He backs up here from last week but has managed that to win in the past and he did have a month between runs last start. Historically he doesn’t have a lot going for him though he does remind me a little of All Silent coming in and did win the race that is probably the best lead up guide in recent times. I’m not that keen to take anything less than the $4.80 currently available but envisage slightly better eventuating.
SPIRIT SONG- Looks the weighted horse of the race here meeting the likes of Solzhenitsyn 3.5kg better for a .5L defeat in the Toorak. Her last run looks to be a below par performance but she does drop in weight significantly and did beat home Skyerush (in receipt of .5kg) there in an on pace dominated race. Skyerush ran very well subsequently in the Myer Classic last week beaten less than a length at level weights. This mare never runs a bad race, has won here at G3 level this distance and he last 2 runs with 54kg or less have been exceptional. Barrier 12 could be a concern but Craig Williams rides and she may well race just behind the pace as she did in the Toorak. $15 is great value.
SECRET ADMIRER- Was an absolute certainty beaten in the Myer Classic last week and importantly she has won her 2 Group 1 races off a 7 day backup. She ran well in this race last year with 54kg but in reality isn’t much worse off here with only 3kg over the limit. It does look as though she has become a non winner BUT i reckon the Winkers added 2 starts back have made a significant difference to her. In the Caulfield Cup she was surprisingly up on a fast pace and held on quite well in the straight, and last week whe wasn’t far off them early before being held up down the running. The Gear Change has changed her racing pattern around which really is a positive for her. The big negative today would appear to be the outside barrier. What will be the plan from there and can it be executed. At least it may prevent her being bottled up like last week. At $19 she is well and truly overs and just has to be backed.
Patinack Farm Classic;
I’m a big fan of MENTAL and was keen on his first up prospects in the Manikato at good odds. He didn’t disappoint and bar for being held up nearing the turn would have won in my opinion. By the time he got truly clear the winner Sea Siren had the momentum up and he couldn’t quite reach her.He gets room to move here from barrier 10 and down the striaght. Providing McEvoy rides him sensibly (doesn’t happen often when I’m on) he should realise his potential today @ $6+.
Queen Elizabeth;
SHAHWARDI gets my vote after his super last to first effort in the Herbert Power. He was unlucky not to make the Melbourne Cup field but it might have been a blessing considering the on pace bias in that race. He is a class act and the imported stayers are generally just too good for our locals when not overburdened with weight. He has only 2.5kg over the limit here, drawn well and has the services of Michael Rodd. He needs the surface relatively dry (for an import) so should be suited today. I took the $5.50 on offer yesterday. Puissance De Lune looks the one to beat. This former French galloper was ultra impressive winning the Bendigo Cup recently when racing on the pace for the first time. You’d think that would be the plan today and that normally serves well at Flemington and in this race. Jockey Glen Boss has a teriffic record in Flemington staying races. Have to save on this horse.
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Thoughts on Singapore and Ararat today.
http://brisburghphil.wordpress.com/2012/11/13/bendigo-r7-1411/
http://brisburghphil.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/sandown-guineaszipping-classic-day-1711/
BP $6.50 and I took $7 Fixed earlier.
http://brisburghphil.wordpress.com/2012/11/24/racing-2411/
BR7 STEEL ZIP is ridiculously priced @ $21 and worth an investment here. He has met Excellantes 4 times and beaten him in 3 of them, meets him on better weight terms and that horse is $3.20! There is a huge amount of speed here with Celtic Dancer, Listen Son, Excellantes & Audacious Spirit likely to go crazy up front. Last preparation this horse finished less than a length from Tiger Tees and beat home Free Wheeling in the same race. If he repeats that today he should go very close. Trainer Pat Duff has always held him in high regard and he does go very well for Brad Stewart who is aboard today.Never confident about a horse first up but at this quote I’m not going to die wondering.
Peggie's Dream didn't hurt either at the $4.20 on Unitab. :)