In this Discussion
- BrisburghPhil December 2012
- carey November 2012
- Devilwearsprada October 2012
- hash October 2012
- Mary_hinge October 2012
- Piston_Broke November 2012
- TheFunkster October 2012
- TorpedoPunt February 2013
- TSS October 2012
Who's Online
0 Members & 180 Non Members
Comments
Racing 25/11/12
Leave a reply
Ballarat Cup;
PELICANO is the one I want to be on here @ $7+. He has great formlines through Eclair Surprise & yesterdays’ M/Valley winner Commanding time who he gave 4.5kg too last start when beaten 2.2L by that horse. He should be fitter for 2 runs back this time, did bolt in 3rd up last campaign and has won at this distance. A few of these have had long campaigns and he should have more improvement to come. The 5kg weight drop is a bonus. The negative is the barrier as all his wins have been when drawn in. That suggests he needs cover to do his best. It’s going to take a clever ride for him to score (maybe they will go forward this time and hope to get in) but hard not to like his prospects today.
Goulburn Cup;
BRIGHTEST appeals here coming off a last start city win and on the minimum weight dropping 3.5kg. Her record might read a lot better but for running on several wet tracks in her career and she should handle the mile here adequately enough. She hasn’t started at this track but trainer Guy Walter runs many of his up and coming young horses here and will know what is required to earn victory. All her wins have been from good barriers so to draw 3 today is a massive bonus and could be the asset that eventually gains her victory. Once the Walter horse’s hit form they normally retain it. The fact that she finished less than 2L behind her stablemate Skyerush at this distance in the Emancipation in April is proof enough that she can handle this class of race. $6.50 seems way overs to me.
Kranji R7;
Pardon the pun but this could be one “EL” of a race! I like either EL PADRINO or EL MILAGRO here on the minimum weight. They should have too much ability with their relative imposts for the rest of this field though Waikato is obviously the benchmark. I’m making this a joint selection at present with track conditions unknown. El Padrino is the proven one at the distance and definitely has the edge on a firmish surface. He is a duffer on wet ground as he showed last start. On Slow or worse I’ll be switching to EL MILAGRO who has won on such conditons and should lead this field regardless of track conditions from his inside barrier. Barend Vorster is 2/2 aboard him and he does look to have enough ability to test these if he leads comfortably a factor which should see him run the distance right out.
http://www.ozbet.com.au/UI/RaceResultUI/RaceResultPage.aspx?fixtureDate=12122012&fixtureId=BR&contestNumber=8
Doomben R8 BM75 Hcp 12/12
No odds available yet on this race but one completely out of left field here could well be DELAGO PILLI who I would expect to start at double figure odds. He is a horse that needs a good barrier, wants no more distance than 1400m, enjoys racing fresh (4 of 5 career wins either first or 2nd up) and needs a surface no worse than Dead (all 5 career wins from 16 attempts).
If my caculations are correct, given all of the above in his career thus far his record would stand 5 wins and 1 placing from 6 starts, quite astonishing when it actually reads 5/27!
To be honest I was originally considering tipping By Choice in this race because I know what dreadful luck that horse has had in drawing bad barriers and he gets barrier 1 tomorrow. I shied away though because of the 59.5kg, and a less than ideal break between runs. Interestingly he met Delago Pilli in a race over 1350m in March this year. He drew nicely that day and DP drew horribly yet the latter actually just beat him home in receipt of 2.5kg. But after the claim tomorrow DP meets him 6.5kg better, a turnaround of 4kg. That is enough to get me seriously thinking that an upset could well and truly be on the cards here. Generally i don’t have much luck taking Apprentice claims into consideration, but even without that he is still 1kg better off and at least this boy did ride him when recently winning first up.
DP also has a new trainer (his 4th to date) another possible positive given he has won his only start since joining the new stable.
Besides By Choice there is also a highly promising horse from the Heathcote stable here called Volkhere. He has a dominant win over the very promising Lucky Sound to his credit and pretty sure the stable have a rap on this one. I’d expect him to start favourite but will be hoping the wide barrier might just bring him undone.
Given a firm enough surface (should be looking at weather report) I’m very keen to invest on DELAGO PILLI here. Nothing ventured nothing gained, but probably wise too to suggest coupling him in Quinellas with the other 2 mentioned horses.
http://brisburghphil.wordpress.com/
Not sure Della (I assume it's Della?). He is a half bother to CommandPerformance who was part owned by a former fellow forumite who you might remember. If this horse reclaims that very early form he would probably win and he looks to hae been trialling well for Parnham. Couldn't possibly take that price though about a first upper. Star Of The Orient (Gelded, Tongue Bit On) looks the interesting one.
http://brisburghphil.wordpress.com/2012/12/14/racing-151212/
http://brisburghphil.wordpress.com/2012/12/20/villiers-stakes-2012/
Won easily and paid very nicely.
Racing 29/12
A rather substandard day of racing not to be unexpected this time of year with some decent Boxing Day fields only last Wednesday. I’ve given Moonee Valley a wide berth as I don’t like the place generally speaking with the exception of Spring Carnival racing. I’m going against my normal practice here and backing a 2yo amongst some other value;
BR3- TOKAMAK is one at good odds here and I want double figures every time I back a horse first up. He is a decent quality horse on the minimum here with a Tongue Tie On first time. He was also entered for a Gold Coast race and connections have taken the option to run here in a better race. A while since he won but he definitely looks a fresh horse with all 4 career wins either 1st or 2nd up. remember seeing this horse win a decent race at Warwick Farm last July beating Eucumbene. He sat very wide throughout but was still able to win, hugely impressive. 2 starts before his spell he ran 2nd to See The World who went on to win a listed race. He easily beat home Irish Dream in that race and it has a Quality race level win beating Startsmeup. That is some great form for a 1MW race at Doomben. Admittedly it is a good race but another thing that might be in his favour here is an extremely high tempo that is virtually guaranteed. Has raced well in Brisbane before with this jockey aboard. At $14+ he is begging to be backed each way.
BR7- I have agonised over 2 horses here but as always have had to go with what I consider to be the value runner in DANAGAZE. He sits alone on a 54kg minimum here with only 1 other horse whom he has beaten at level weights before. He meets Mr Light Blue 1kg better for a very narrow defeat last start and should turn the tables on him. 4-2/11 at Doomben which is way better than his Eagle Farm strike rate (1/8). He won his last start here at this distance and was beaten 3L in this race last year on the limit weight. He was in receipt of 1kg from the Villiers runner up Kontiki Park that day and he won the race. Today he gets 3kg off Alma’s Fury one again a Villers Stakes runner up. He has a good record carrying this sort of weight (2-2/5), this is probably his best distance & I have a hunch any give in the ground will suit. His last 14 starts have been on dry ground and he has only won 1 of them. 15 runs ago hw was an excellent 2nd in an Ipswich Cup at listed level, possibly his best career effort? He gets barrier 3 here and is 2-2/6 barriers 1-3 in his career. I’m not overly confident but he could start $20+ (currently $17), and an each way ticket wouldn’t go astray here.
Also keen on Alma’s Fury who finally draws an alley and loves racing this time of year in which his record is far superior to other seasons at 3-1/5, which includes that Villiers placing. The good barrier will allow him to race closer. The negatives are the weight (not a big horse), his overall strike rate and the less than ideal break between runs (failed before). You are taking a shortish price given those negatives but having said that he might win quite easily with Glen Boss to pilot. Definitely ‘saver’ material.
BR5 I’M TOO SEXY has got me in here despite the fact I rarely bet on 2yo’s. She won the inaugural ( I think) MM 2yo race at Ballarat and did it in this clockwise direction- the first time I can remember a race being run that way in Victoria. She looked in trouble half way down the straight but romped away to win easily, nothing really making an impression on her at the finish. Apparently it is a testing 1000m clockwise at Ballarat with the first 800m being uphill so that will be good grounding for the 1200m today, and the extra 200m shouldn’t be a problem anyway with all her siblings having won over far more ground. Even more encouraging is what she beat last start, and what they have done since. Beaten 5.3L was Change Of Honour who went to Caulfield and won it’s next start. 3rd placegetter Gracious Prospect 4.8L astern subsequently went to Sydney and got within 3.5L of Champagne Cath, who may well have been favourite in this race today had it not been scratched. Next outing GP disappointed though not completely disgraced when 6L behind Assail, who is in fact the Gold Coast MM 2yo favourite.
So some decent formlines there and ITS has since won a trial very impressively at the Gold Coast. Has the coveted rails alley here and should take some beating. I’m suggesting a win bet here and have done so @ $6.50. Quite possible better odds will be available and an each way bet will get at least your money back.
SR3 SOROS gets my vote here somewhat on default because every other runner here is arguably underdone, either first or 2nd up, or with a less than ideal break between runs. He has 17 days between runs, but like it that way and I don’t think same can be said about any other runner. The exception to these comment is Al’s Gold but I can’t find enough to like about it.
This horse is probably best at distances between 1400-1800m and not a middle distance or staying horse as might originally have been thought. His breeding probably suggests so too being out of the great Lonhro and a super sprinter miler mare in Bonanova. He drops 2.5kg in weight for this race and was Gelded before this preparation with a Tongue Tie added. His form was exemplary unitl that disappointing 2000m run 2 starts ago. Back to this distance here last start he was back to his best when winning. Drawn ideally in barrier 3 and should get the run of the race. Goes well for this jockey too (2-1/4). I think @ $4 he is good enough value here and I’m happy to back him win only at that price.
Considering I have spent considerable time on these selections I’m hoping this isn’t a crash and burn day for me, which can often happen on these substandard Saturdays. Just need one of the 4 to salute to break even, but,if one of those roughies get up it will be my shout!
Good Punting!
If not you should be! http://www.readingtheplay.com/
big day yesterday for followers!
Saturday – Caulfield R7#3 MR MOET - 3rd $3.70
Saturday – Caulfield R8#6 BUDRIGUEZ - 1st $6.50
Saturday – Bendigo R6#6 HAMAM - 1st $4.00
Saturday – Eagle Farm R6#12 ALCANCIA – 4th
Saturday – Warwick Farm R8#13 HARDBREAK HOTEL – unplaced
Selections up for Sunday as well.