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Winterbottom Stakes
West Australian Racing
TheDiva
13,248 posts
A race that is very prestigous on the WA racing calender and won by some of WA best sprinters, many of which have gone on to prove themselves in the East including Marasco, Miss Andretti, Ellicorsam, Bradson, Jacks or Better, Placid Ark, Jungle Mist and Asian Beau.
Cant see any real standout favorite amongst the nominations and I think the barrier drawn will be a real market shaper. Horses like Arctic Park, Charlie Beau and Grasspatch Girl could start favourite if drawn favourably.
The intersting factor will be if Dark Target accepts - the last 3yo to win the race was Hardrada back in 2002.
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HISTORY
Favorites have won the last 3 years but these favorites have been standout gallopers - we dont really have a standout this year.
Year Horse Trainer Jockey Weight Price Bar Time Last 600m
2006 Marasco F R Kersley D Oliver 57.5 $1.80 4 1.10.04 33.42
2005 Miss Andretti D B Meuller K Forrester 55 $3.80 13 1.09.72 34.81
2004 Ellicorsam S L Miller W Pike 55 $2.45 8 1.08.66 34.36
2003 Hardrada L P Luciani J Whiting 57.5 $16.00 13 1.11.31 34.20 *run at Belmont
2002 Hardrada L P Luciani J Whiting 52 $8.00 1 1.08.77 33.81
2001 Fair Alert O R Sweetman A Sansom 57.5 $3.20 2 1.11.56 34.95
2000 Noble Sky J W Price P Knuckey 57.5 $9.00 8 1.10.63 35.48
1999 Double Blue A F Beckett D O'Heare 57.5 $7.50 11 1.10.55 34.68
1998 Bradson L B Morton J Brown 57.5 $10.00 2 1.10.55 35.64
1997 Cranky Tikit S Searle C Staples 57.5 $11.00 2 1.20.24 35.45
Cant see any real standout favorite amongst the nominations and I think the barrier drawn will be a real market shaper. Horses like Arctic Park, Charlie Beau and Grasspatch Girl could start favourite if drawn favourably.
The intersting factor will be if Dark Target accepts - the last 3yo to win the race was Hardrada back in 2002.
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HISTORY
Favorites have won the last 3 years but these favorites have been standout gallopers - we dont really have a standout this year.
Year Horse Trainer Jockey Weight Price Bar Time Last 600m
2006 Marasco F R Kersley D Oliver 57.5 $1.80 4 1.10.04 33.42
2005 Miss Andretti D B Meuller K Forrester 55 $3.80 13 1.09.72 34.81
2004 Ellicorsam S L Miller W Pike 55 $2.45 8 1.08.66 34.36
2003 Hardrada L P Luciani J Whiting 57.5 $16.00 13 1.11.31 34.20 *run at Belmont
2002 Hardrada L P Luciani J Whiting 52 $8.00 1 1.08.77 33.81
2001 Fair Alert O R Sweetman A Sansom 57.5 $3.20 2 1.11.56 34.95
2000 Noble Sky J W Price P Knuckey 57.5 $9.00 8 1.10.63 35.48
1999 Double Blue A F Beckett D O'Heare 57.5 $7.50 11 1.10.55 34.68
1998 Bradson L B Morton J Brown 57.5 $10.00 2 1.10.55 35.64
1997 Cranky Tikit S Searle C Staples 57.5 $11.00 2 1.20.24 35.45
Comments
Wont forget marasco's late closing finish last year for a LONG time!
Of $300000 and $4000 trophies. 1st $180000 and trophies of $2000 to owner $1000 to trainer $1000 to jockey, 2nd $60000, 3rd $27000, 4th $12000, 5th $7500, 6th $4500, 7th $4500, 8th $4500.
(GROUP II) For three years old and upwards.
No Allowances for apprentices.
No Horse Trainer Ballot Weight Penalty Handicapper
Rating
1 ARCTIC PARK John Price 58.5
2 CHARLIE BEAU Bruce Watkins 58.5
3 COOL FRONT David Harrison 58.5
4 DRESS SUIT (NZ) Ken Williamson 58.5
5 EVERLAST John Gangemi 58.5
6 FAR HORIZONS Adam Durrant 58.5
7 FLIGHT CAPTAIN (NZ) Greg Harper 58.5
8 HARTLEYS DREAM Peter Giadresco 58.5
9 IDYLLIC PRINCE Jim P Taylor 58.5
10 INNOVATION Neville Parnham 58.5
11 KIM LUCK Malcolm Burnett 58.5
12 LACERATE Rebecca Nairn 58.5
13 MERCURY HALO Allen Mc Namara (Snr) 58.5
14 MR LOVALOVER John Gangemi 58.5
15 ON TARGET Chris Stelmach 58.5
16 RAW METAL David Harrison 58.5
17 TARZI Neville Parnham 58.5
18 WIRE DETONATOR Sharon Miller 58.5
19 CALICO BLUE Jim P Taylor 56
20 EXOTIC NIGHTS Tony Yujnovich 56
21 GRASSPATCH GIRL Tom Widdeson 56
22 ROYALE HARVEST Lou Luciani 56
23 SILVER SEAM Frank Maynard 56
24 AVERROES Ian Glading 54.5
25 DARK TARGET Chris Stelmach 54.5
26 GREY MONARCH Frank Maynard 54.5
27 RADIANT PRINCE Adam Durrant 54.5
1200 Metres
1 Arctic Park (B) 9 OPN 58.5 J W Price
2 Cool Front (B) 5 OPN 58.5 D R Harrison
3 So Secret 10 OPN 58.5 F R Kersley
4 Innovation 2 OPN 58.5 N D Parnham
5 Mercury Halo 7 OPN 58.5 A M Mc Namara
6 Glory Hunter (B) 6 OPN 58.5 L Smith
7 Charlie Beau 8 OPN 58.5 B V Watkins
8 Grasspatch Girl 3 OPN 56 T W Widdeson
9 Royale Harvest (B) 1 OPN 56 L P Luciani
10 Dark Target 4 OPN 54.5 C A Stelmach
from
Grasspatch Girl, Dark Target and So Secret
carey not interested in these things.
different race,...different circumstances, it's irrelevant to what happened last time.
i'll know just before they jump what bets i have, if any.
it may even be cb or dt rather than ss.
it could even be all of them!!
they're basically only numbers to me.
WINTERBOTTOM STAKES
35307 CHARLIE BEAU 4.00
35308 GRASSPATCH GIRL 4.00
35303 SO SECRET 4.60
35310 DARK TARGET 5.50
35301 ARCTIC PARK 7.00
35306 GLORY HUNTER 9.00
35309 ROYALE HARVEST 18.00
35305 MERCURY HALO 26.00
35304 INNOVATION 35.00
35302 COOL FRONT 81.00
He did say he was going away tho.
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So that leaves me with Grasspatch Girl perhaps? 8) Not sure, rather confused about the race at the moment :oops:
Has won from;
Gate 1 - 4 times
Gate 2 - 3 times
Gate 4 - once
Gate 5 - twice
Gate 6 - once
Gate 7 - 3 times
Gate 8 - once
Gate 9 - twice
Gate 10 - once
Gate 12 - once
I'm on!
Barriers
1 - 3
2 - 3
3 - 3
4 - 3
6 - 4
8 - 1
9 - 2
11 - 2
12 - 2
13 - 2
15 - 1
You can use stats how u like but from 18 starts from wide draws (9+) he has won 4 placed 5 and unplaced 9 times. Is having his 17 start in the campaign and recent form has not been his best.
Dont think Im knocking the horse because he has been an absolute top horse - just think he is up against it in this Group 2 race.
In a smaller field of 10 he is a MONTY i wont hear of him getting beat he should have won his previous 2 this is his race !
I'm still going through the form for the field and he's probably my top pick at this stage but geez, no way could I have your confidence in a horse who has stolen my money 3 times :twisted: :roll:
Hence in a 10 horse field, not really concerned by draw.
History of results would probably suggest 6-7 been most successful, which is closer to 10 than 1........
Wouldn't be too concerned re gates anyway, go for the better horse (is my tip).
First thing first, I’m a huge believer in the whole concept of value, finding it, backing one’s own judgement in and when I’m not mucking around, ignoring what the majority say.
I’m not afraid to take on and/or lay a favourite if I think that it’s bad value. There are true favourites and false favourites and the favourites who are favourites but not value. It's rare I back anything at less than $2.50. I won't pretend that it always pay off, but being selective in who I take has, in the long run, been beneficial to me, trying to be disciplined is a bitch though, especially on losing days! :lol:
I’m only an 18yo from Victoria, have always been into horses and horse racing (like many of us, family influence – involved with horses and bookmaking...:lol: good mix), I started taking a keen interest in following WA racing in the summer of 2004 and have enjoyed simply following it, watching it but most of all; punting on it ever since. I actually enjoy following and punting on it more than on races over here...
Anyhoo, that’s enough of my life story, on to the action!
I’ve simple posted pretty much a race preview of who I see as the main ‘winning chances’ for every race rather than putting up the runner by runner synopsis which I used to work out my own markets :P Over the top? Meh, clever dick :lol:
Hey! I had to do something on Friday, day off work woo lol.
R1:
A race for the unraced 2yo’s, market watch advised. Performance Plus has had two handy trials in preparation for this, blinkers go on for the first start, well drawn...
R2:
First up Fairest And Best was a close up second behind older horse Ezinikoff. He wasn’t far behind Chopin second up when drifted back from a wide barrier and working home fast. Meets that horse 1.5kg better at the weights , F.A.B is drawn perfectly for this race and the drop in distance with sufficient speed up front will suit. 4/1 would be generous.
Sporting Fella over-raced on debut last start and will be better for the experience.
Fairest And Best – Chopin – Sporting Fella
R3:
Hard to go past Pentempo. Was super impressive last start, this isn’t all that harder, no reason why the extra 200m will hold any fears and drawn to get a cosy run. He’ll be short, but looks the most trustworthy.
Stirrup Iron Jack was finishing off nicely last start, the step up to 2400m will suit and can improve into the placings at huge odds. Rossam, Parc D’Amour, Outside Edge, Dr Bella etc, plenty of them could put their best foot forward without surprising me.
Pentempo - Stirrup Iron Jack - Rossam
R4:
Battle Emblem was reportedly a recent very impressive trial winner, had good form over winter and is pretty promising plus he has secured the services of Harvey, he’ll firm into fave imo, he’s the one to beat, but he’ll be unders imo. Feel free to take them should you rate him highly though.
Raw Metal is my tip. Outclassed in the Peters when slow away a few weeks ago behind El Presidente, his start before at this track and distance behind Glory Hunter and Reflective Star was full of merit. He hasn’t won for a while, but he’s not far away. As long as Ikenushi can extricate him when the whips are cracking, watch for him late. 4/1 would be generous.
Timely Reign was saved from Bunbury during the week for this and if not for the difficult barrier, I’d have marked him much higher. King Of The Stalls was huge last start and could battle for favouritism.
Raw Metal – Battle Emblem - Ezinikoff
R5:
Stormblitz was trapped wide throughout in the Lee Steere when he put in a brave effort. Finished 7th each time in this time, but those races have been against better horses, he’s arguably had excuses and he jumps up to the 1600m which he should enjoy.
Mr Sandgroper has been outclassed in stronger group races recently, the claim from Murphy helps and he’s well drawn for this easier assignment, always tough to beat in these kind of races.
Tactics will be important, if Kia Ora Miss can get it easy up on the speed, she’ll be tough to get past, the switch down in distance holds no fears for this mare.
Jinx King has Harvey. 'Nuff said.
Stormblitz – Jinx King – Kia Ora Miss
R6:
Disappointing race. Grey Monarch destroyed rivals first up and the form was franked by Keytomoney winning since and the rest of these don’t seem all that much chop but... Grey Monarch is a 3yo, second up, jumping 600m in distance and has to lump 58kg. As good as I believe he is and as bad as I believe his opposition is, I can't back him.
Xaarvano wasn’t hopeless last start, blinkers go on, better drawn, extra distance seems as though it’ll suit.
Grey Monarch – Xaarvano – Chevic
R7:
Arctic Park: Gutsy, consistent old performer who looks best suited under these conditions. He’ll push forward from the awkward alley and give himself every chance. Boasts and excellent track and distance record. Will be value, can certainly win, but I see a place the much greater realistic option.
Cool Front: No, just no. Would be surprised if he doesn’t finish in the last 3.
So Secret: Smart Kersley trained horse gunning for a big bonus here if he can repeat the effort of last start. Step up to WFA combined with a tougher field and an evil draw makes this a much harder task, but surely there’s room for improvement after his first up success. Win wouldn’t surprise, but I’m content to risk him.
Innovation: Didn’t get the distance and outclassed in the Railway, start before he was second to So Secret. Jumps back up to WFA and that probably puts paid to his winning chances. But hey, well drawn, fit, loves the distance, he can place at big odds.
Mercury Halo: First up he was a close up fourth behind Metallic Storm when he flew home in that very quick time. Good record second up, he’s an 8yo now and will drift back. For mine, another with a class query, but if the breaks go his way...let’s just call it a hunch...I just remember his run in the Listed Bolton Sprint during the winter when not far from the winner, he can turn in some impressive sectionals.
Glory Hunter: As tough as they come, superb effort in the Railway. Actually, he’s been superb all campaign, whatta horse. He’s got some quality form over this distance. Other than the quick back up and dropping 400m in distance, he's adaptable, it’s hard to find a reason why he can’t win. First test at WFA, but I don’t think it’ll bother him. Not my top pick, but I won’t shoot down those who have him there.
Charlie Beau: What can I say? I hate you haha. I thought you were a certainty last start and you hurt me. He was a bit slow out, didn’t have a whole heap of luck, but he kept coming, all in all not such a bad effort. That run would have topped him off nicely and for me, this is his last chance really otherwise he’s in danger of being put in the ‘sack book’. Wasn’t far away from the winner in the Prince Of Wales when he needed the run. WFA won’t bother him and this is ‘his’ race.
Grasspatch Girl: Consistent, well performed at WFA, the highest rated horse in the race, a good mare in career best form, perfectly drawn, will get a nice run just off the pacemakers from her perfect barrier – ‘luck’ in these sprint races often determines the result – and I can’t see her running into any/much ‘bad’ luck... and simply, that is pretty much the reason why I have her on top...
Royale Harvest: This distance, this class, I can’t see it happening. Outsider.
Dark Target: The ‘unknown’ in the race. Top 3yo whose problems in the Guineas have been well documented. A few gear changes for this, plus getting Paul Harvey back in the saddle, with the 54.5 he’ll push forward. A moral beaten 3 starts back this track/distance, he’ll have his admirers. Top chance, but a 3yo, WFA, perhaps a few question marks over him...I’ve got a couple ahead of him. Any first try at WFA is tough – the 3yo has to pull out something special.
I’ve got this narrowed down to two main winning chances – Charlie Beau and Grasspatch Girl.
I’m expecting the winner to be either of those two.
In ‘my’ market I have GG fave at 11/4, Charlie second fave at 7/2.
The price discrepancy coming back to that ‘luck’ concept and the fact the GG is more likely to find it favourable. There isn’t much between them.
Working off TABFixed odds Dark Target, So Secret are big ‘unders’ for the win price IMO. Arctic Park is a little under the odds. Glory Hunter is about right and Mercury Halo easily best value of the roughies.
Grasspatch Girl – Charlie Beau – Mercury Halo
R8:
Gallivanter in his most recent runs has finished behind promising and/or consistent horses such as Vizard, Solidwickedcruel and Lambton Castle. His closing sectionals have been ok, he’s drawn perfectly here and I think he’s looking for this kind of distance now.
Burnzy has a featherweight on his back after the claim from Markou and wasn’t too far away in a good race behind a promising horse last start – and the blinkers go on here for the first time.
London Court and French Favourite are two horses which have burned me recently and I don’t want to touch them with a 40ft pole, although I concede that at their best, they’d be a chance.
Gallivanter – Burnzy – Bet Ahead
R9:
I ‘sacked’ Reflective Star last start and banked with the class and Wire Detonator, it paid off. However, it was a nice effort from Reflective Star as he was trapped wide throughout from his bad barrier, this is an easier race and there’s no Wire Detonator or Solidwickedcruel here, he’s drawn to get a cushy run. After a campaign which started so promising, he’s been the punters worst nightmare since, but this time, this time, it surely, it has to be the race he cracks another win in.
A nice drop in class for Pure Black, the step up in distance will suit her, she’ll get a nice possie and will be running on.
For Another Clanger, this looks similar, perhaps a shade easier than his last start. He’s had 4 runs back, should be able to lead, all he has to do is settle and be allowed to roll along in front and he’ll be tough to beat.
Reflective Star – Another Clanger – Pure Black
All in all, a good day’s racing, which can be expected this time of year out West :)
My best for the day is R5 Stormblitz. I’m expecting him to finally be able to break through in this easier race. With Harvey on Jinx King and young Tommy Berry on Stormblitz (I think he’s an alright jockey and have confidence that he won’t screw up the ride), not to mention other good winning hopes in the race, should ensure a juicy price for Stormblitz :) - I believe I’ve found what will be the ‘overs’ for the day, now all he has to do is do the right thing and win. $11.00 Way2Bet price assessment < Perhaps even worth a go E-W to be on the ‘safe’ side(?). Would be rapt with anything over 9/2.
As for the ‘Big One’ today, the Winterbottom is seemingly an open race, but I think I've narrowed it down. In my opinion there's not much between Grasspatch Girl and Charlie Beau. Imo GG should be favourite and represents the better value, so I have a leaning toward her. TABFixed – GG @ $4.60. Charlie Beau @ $4.00
I had a nice weekend last weekend, hopefully the luck continues. I’m not as confident as what I was with Broadway Hit and Wire Detonator, but still happy with the work and expecting a return :P Gotta back myself in hey...
Oh and don't take these as ‘tips’ lol, I’m not posting them as such, I don’t expect credit should they go ok (hopefully).
Simply posting my thoughts, my own opinions, always open to improvement and new ideas – especially when it comes to WA racing thought I’d share and hopefully it pays dividends :)
Good luck boys and girls 8)
Filthy greys 8)
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