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2015 Perth Magic Millions Yearling Sale
Breeding
DamienWyer
7,950 posts
I'm currently working my way through a 100% breeding analysis of every Lot on offer at the 2015 Perth Magic Millions Yearling Sale. It is time consuming to say the least with 396 yearlings on offer and I can complete the results at a rate of about 15 per hour. So it will take a couple of weeks to finish both selling days.
I do this because it is my home sale, and for many of the yearlings on offer I have seen previously offered siblings, or in fact so a lot of the mares if they raced in Perth.
Sometimes I am genuinely surprised at the results, and what the market perceptions are when those yearlings enter the sales ring to be sold. Success certainly cannot be defined by what you pay for a yearling, as each year Perth seems to throw up several horses that go on to become quality animals, and almost a certainty that all price ranges were catered for.
So this is about finding those diamonds in the rough. Drop me a line if you are interested in retaining an independent opinion.
Cheers, Damien
You can find the online sales book here:
http://www.magicmillions.com.au/calendar/2015-perth-yearling-sale/
I do this because it is my home sale, and for many of the yearlings on offer I have seen previously offered siblings, or in fact so a lot of the mares if they raced in Perth.
Sometimes I am genuinely surprised at the results, and what the market perceptions are when those yearlings enter the sales ring to be sold. Success certainly cannot be defined by what you pay for a yearling, as each year Perth seems to throw up several horses that go on to become quality animals, and almost a certainty that all price ranges were catered for.
So this is about finding those diamonds in the rough. Drop me a line if you are interested in retaining an independent opinion.
Cheers, Damien
You can find the online sales book here:
http://www.magicmillions.com.au/calendar/2015-perth-yearling-sale/
Comments
Also will be interested to see the progeny of Dalghar and Dick Turpin.
Anyone know who is involved in Western Breeders Alliance .
Disapponted at the lack of numbers for Trade Fair. Deserves better. As predicted huge numbers for Scandal Keeper, after his flying start, but has he really gone on with it anyway? UR better rep next year and deserves it.
Unfrtunately i feel its almost a Woolies and Coles scenario, but not quite. Need more competition.
As stated before, can you imagine if BP still sold at the sales. He'd probably would get the best prices.................amd lift the tone..........
165
219
60
137
at a glance in no particular order...i'll check this thread in 2yrs and see how they are going
Carlosa likes this post.
Talking about Trade Fairs, I've got a few if anyone is interested. This one is a 3/4 brother to Fairway to Venus which goes alright from Jimmy Taylor's yard and he is the first foal out of a city winning Oratorio mare. He hasn't been prepped for the sales, photo's are paddock condition. Free agistment until the end of June if interested.
He will be heading to the June MM yearling sales if not sold prior.
Several Group horses will be sold in February, that is almost a certainty. I actually think this sale will be a tough one for Vendors, but a great one for buyers. There will be loads of value with sellers having to meet the market or take their stock home.
I haven't seen any stock yet, but I'm looking forward to over the next few weeks.
Bit of trivea.....another site suggested WA for Benetau when he retired as they didnt expect him to amount to much....
Lot 96 could be the start of a good family
Is there supposed to be a "difference" in the two books?
Damien you don't think it's a average sale but you are thinking like a bloodstock agent I'm thinking as a realist as I don't have to try and influence some wealthy people with nfi about horses to buy one.
So Damien you state that you have " found " 21 yearlings that meet your highest level on pedigree , well I will now challenge you to after the sale start a new discussion with your so-called top yearlings after you have inspected them all and refined your selections down to say your top 10 then in 5 years we can all look back and see how well you picked.
Also I am wondering if or when you your book on horse breeding theories is coming out so I can add it to my other books by Tesio, Ken Mclean, Ross du Bourg and the Rasmussen Factor.
TheFunkster likes this post.
Yep i'd usually have a free swing at a couple that i'd take on board if i got them under 10.....i wont be going this year as i'd be too scared i'd come home with a truck full!!!!!!
Should be some nice horses at genuine clearance prices i reckon. And the well bred top shelf ones wouldn't surprise me if they go for a lot more than expected. 4 or 5 cashed up bogans fighting each other for bragging rights!!!!
But tell me why should I again ? I know, my clients know, those who have made inquiry this coming buying season also know. I don't think there are a lot of clients on here from the usual commentators who ask such questions, but for the sake of the exercise I'm happy to illustrate what I do.
I will include purchase price and subsequent stakes money earned.
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Legless likes this post.
Is this like the punters of PTT, put in our "tips" before said day, so it cant be seen to be smart after the event?
It was tried last year. How did everyone go then?
When your playing with pretend money, easy. When your playing with somesone elses money, not so easy. When its your own, deadly!
"She will never make it as her nostrils are too small for success at the highest level"
"Damien if you want to be good at what you do, you can't buy crap like this"
"He is too big and never should have been purchased"
"If you open with that bid you will be the only one bidding and you will have paid too much"
"You didn't pick the horse"
So I agree with Into It's statement to a point. Buying with other people's money is only easy unless you buy stock like it is your own money.
Putting up with comments following sales really makes me laugh. What disappoints is the way in which those comments are given oxygen.
Time to go back to work.
Youve been around long enough to know these criticisms come with the territory. Professional jealousy i believe. The one about the bidding, Gai tried that one and has been critisised ever since but it is also one of her ploys.
Who cares, stop whinging and get on with the job
I am just a average bloke with a interest in pedigrees who is not selling my idea's to anybody.
So anybody else who thinks they know a bit about a pedigree you are welcome to join in this challenge and in 5 years time we will see who is better the professional operator or the average bloke.
Enough said i recon
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I bought Vitalism when her dam was in foal to her, that for just $200. She ran second in the Karrakatta plate. Also I purchased Resetgold who won three and was stakes placed as well.
Throw in a few Saturday winners of recent years and I thought I was going along OK.
I think I may have even selected a Derby winner if things go well with the latest one in coming months.
But if Spudley wants to play fantasy thoroughbreds I'm game. But now he says it is unfair as I will be inspecting them ?? Don't some on here say i don't know what I'm looking at ?
So why not everyone have a fantasy budget of $1M. That should easily cover five horses in Perth. To allow for untimely accidents prior to racing, you can even have two reserves. Stakesmoney over their respective 2,3, & 4YO seasons only to count. If those yearlings subsequently get sold to another regime Interstate or International, you can also have the profit on that deal included in the stakes. Can't be fairer than that.
I will offer up a prize of a 20" x 30" canvas of any image in my library of photo's. By the way, have I mentioned that I am exhibiting if all goes well, at the 2015 Perth Magic Millions Sale ? I have several models lined up for shoots in January for that project. Around 20 pieces will be on display from 9" x 21" through to 30" x 45" and all will be for sale. There will be even more in the portfolio for a book that will go into print a little later in the year. the model participants are all from the Racing Industry and all will have extensive portfolio's for self promotion as a result. It should be a lot of fun.
I haven't seen him since the day I bought him. Sam tells me he is in work now with Jim Taylor and my information is that he is pleasing to this point but no big questions yet have been asked. He is a brute of a horse I am told in terms of size. Maybe we will see him trial around February with luck.
Spudley you happy to put your name to your buys in the past.
So this in my humble opinion is a list of the Vendors who are getting it right.
A+ rated
Scenic 5
Oakland 4
Yarrradale 4
Mungrup 3
Krisman Park 3
Gold Front 2
Gervase 2
Dawson 2
Mogumber, Western Breeders Alliance, Botsky, Geisel Park, Toreby park, Eliza Park 1
31 in total
A rated
Gold Front 5
Bellbridge Park 3
Gervase 3
Yarradale 3
Geisel Park 3
Eliza Park 3
Beluga Park 2
Toreby Park 2
Western Breeders Alliance 2
Dawson 2
Oakland 2
Mogumber, De Gray, Avoca, Namerik, Cape Falls, Rangeview, Alwyn, Quanah, Queenslea 1
39 in total
Another bit of trivia. Of the stakes producing mares in this Day One section, those that have produced even a stakes placed horse, the following results from my lists were found.
7 were rated A+
12 were rated A
20 were rated B+
In effect, in my opinion, those 20 yearlings could have been significantly better bred by the broodmare going to another stallion selection. For the most part, the B+ rating came from that half or full relations performance.
Secondly this challenge is not fantasy it is purely pedigree based.
Thirdly I do not like or dislike Damien as I do not even really know him as I have only met him once but I do have a issue in regards with how he self promotes himself on this website as a bloodstock agent with a so called pedigree analysis that is 100% and he does 15 per hour so that is 4 minutes per lot but for me if I do one it can sometimes take hours.
As for picking Magnifisio her damside is good and Magnus was a well bred racehorse so really no challenge there and as she was a $80,000 yearling she must have been a reasonable looking horse I never saw her so good luck to him for picking her .
Everything from medicines, food products and manufactured items all have rigorous testing regimes done before we buy them and have warranties if they fail, but people use bloodstock agents to advise them on buying a horse with no testing of their theories and if the horse is no good it's oh well we will buy a better one next sale .
So my issue is not personally against Damien it is about bloodstock agents who rip people off every year then have the gall to keep on doing it year after year with no comeback for the owner , I know buying a racehorse is a risky venture just like buying used cars or houses but at least you have some sort of insurance if there is a problem with either but when you buy a horse from a horse sale with no idea of it's ability being advised by a bloodstock agent using untested theories you cannot insure against the horse being no good .
So if some of you think I am being silly or a fool well that's your opinion and you are entitled to it just as I am entitled to mine, our opinions may differ but that is what good robust conversation is all about this is a forum after all.
primemover likes this post.
You couldn't give Magnus stock away that year. The last 'real' bidder stopped at $60,000 on her, and knowing the reserve I just waited until the auctioneer was the under bidder, and one bid bought her at $80,000. The average price of a Magnus yearling was closer to $40,000 that year. So the market had given up hope on him in real terms. I bought Potente for under $40,000 in Adelaide the following year and you wouldn't get near him for double that now in a yearling sale.
From your comments it sounds like you have an issue with Bloodstock Agents. We have never done business so you can hardly lump me in that category via guilt by association. The reason I do self promote is to break down these preconceptions that not all are tarred with the same brush.
Either way, it is what it is. This is what I do. I'm just trying to do the best I can for me and my clients.
I would suggest that the majority of City and Group winners are bought through yearling sales.
If you don`t like the sales that`s fine but if the majority of City and group winners come from that source, you are automatically limiting your chances of success.
It is fantasy because you aren`t spending any money.
Not sure anything in the purchasing a Thoroughbred yearling is 100% and I can`t see where Damien mentions 100% about anything.
As for a time frame on pedigree analysis, I`m sure that someone who looks at pedigrees at all major sales would be a lot quicker than someone who doesn`t like yearling sales.
No challenge?
$80k purchase that wins $1.2 mil.
If that happened every day of the week no one would have to work.
Comparing the purchase of thoroughbred yearlings to medicines, food products and manufactured items and their rigorous testing regimes is ridiculous.
A better comparison would be investing in shares, highly speculative and previous success is no guarantee of future success.
Everything within racing is speculative and there will never be a foolproof theory that guarantees success. All people can do is be as informed as possible and if seeking advice (not purchasing ever yearling they mention) from a bloodstock agent helps the chances of success it can only be a positive.
Does using a qualified Vet for advice when they disregard a yearling on the basis of a possible physical flaw get you as upset as the use of a bloodstock agent?
The purchase of many successful racehorses have seen multiple Vets dissuade potential buyers from purchasing based on their qualified opinion, yet the Vets are back every year.
Don`t know if your silly or a fool but some of your "opinions" needed addressing for a sense of balance.