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Belmont Preview, 31st May
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Westspeed Nursery - Scott Embry
Rebel King looks poised to win another 1000m 2 year old race and tick over the $100 000 prizemoney mark at just start 5 in his career. Both wins this campaign were by 4 lengths and in a field of 5 I think if there were such a thing as line betting in horse racing that he would be at the -4 length mark. If any of these can trouble him then they would appear to have a bright future because he has simply wiped the floor with his opponents this preparation. $1.25 is incredibly short but just like Quinny from the pole at Gloucester Park last Friday he looks a good thing. Ben Kennedy will be doing everything he can to shed those unwanted pounds after forfeiting his rides on Wednesday, not being able to make 58.5kg. Should McAuliffe need a replacement rider one would imagine every single hoop would be putting their hands up with Pike being the logical choice. Barring any bad luck he simply wins (again). Kim Excel was strong in her debut victory down the straight at Pinjarra and she should be there at the finish. Festive Excess has trialled well and will be looking to pinch the $12 000 cheque for 2nd. Even the horse who finishes last in the opener will pick up a cheeky $1200.
1. REBEL KING - 3. KIM EXCEL - 2. FESTIVE EXCESS
SUGGESTED BET - 1. REBEL KING $80
Rebel King looks poised to win another 1000m 2 year old race and tick over the $100 000 prizemoney mark at just start 5 in his career. Both wins this campaign were by 4 lengths and in a field of 5 I think if there were such a thing as line betting in horse racing that he would be at the -4 length mark. If any of these can trouble him then they would appear to have a bright future because he has simply wiped the floor with his opponents this preparation. $1.25 is incredibly short but just like Quinny from the pole at Gloucester Park last Friday he looks a good thing. Ben Kennedy will be doing everything he can to shed those unwanted pounds after forfeiting his rides on Wednesday, not being able to make 58.5kg. Should McAuliffe need a replacement rider one would imagine every single hoop would be putting their hands up with Pike being the logical choice. Barring any bad luck he simply wins (again). Kim Excel was strong in her debut victory down the straight at Pinjarra and she should be there at the finish. Festive Excess has trialled well and will be looking to pinch the $12 000 cheque for 2nd. Even the horse who finishes last in the opener will pick up a cheeky $1200.
1. REBEL KING - 3. KIM EXCEL - 2. FESTIVE EXCESS
SUGGESTED BET - 1. REBEL KING $80
Comments
Down at Bunbury in the 2013 edition of the Breeder's Classic Takanori beat Rusty Peaches by a half length to secure her third victory from 3 starts. Last preparation she won first up and then found the step to open Mares company a little tough. She returns here off the back of a trial victory and after Chris Parnham's claim carries 57.5. Drawn ideally to sit right behind the speed she will take some beating. Rusty Peaches returns to Belmont for the first time since his 2 year old days, he is another who will look to sit over the speed. O'Grady is riding well and it appears to be a battle of the apprentices with Storm Sense and Tash Faithfull looking the next best. The tiny little Street Sense marep again partners with the tiny little Albany girl and together they'll fly late. Interesting little race with the winner probably coming from one of those three, outside those Wombie's Legacy and Metallica are capable of hitting the line strongly, while Talk of Angels has another crack at Saturday racing after dominating Albany all year.
3. TAKANORI - 2. RUSTY PEACHES - 6. STORM SENSE
SUGGESTED BET - 3. TAKANORI $20
Mireille was super impressive first up over 1000m; a somewhat unsuitable trip for her. Jerry Noske got caught in traffic and tried to guide the Husson Filly in, out and around runner down the length of the straight under soft hands and heels riding, not once using the whip. If luck is on her side and Chris Parnham can stay out of trouble as they round the bend then Mireille should be finishing in the first 4 as she has done at 10 of her 14 careers starts. The $7 on offer is eachway value and her final 600m last start was 32.85. Not many 3 year olds break the 33 second mark. Arcadia Rose is the one to beat, her first up run behind Chinetti was solid but the big question here is how does Pike deal with barrier 1. At some stage she will need luck or brilliance to extricate off the fence into clear running. A warm up ride for Pike who also has to deal with barrier 1 aboard Elite Belle in the feature. Sanctitude was backed off the charts in midweek company before Gaerth put the foot down and burnt a lot of early fuel to lead sitting off the fence fading to run 5th. Senior rider jumps aboard and he can return to the money. Guardlock will improve as the distances of theses 3 year old events increase.
3. MIREILLE - 2. ARCADIA ROSE - 5. SANCTITUDE
SUGGESTED BET - 3. MIREILLE $20 x $20
Star of Husson gets his first look at Saturday company and he will give punters a preview of what to expect in the Belmont Oaks, Belmont Classic. At this time last year we were starting to warm to horses of the Summah's Touch/Northpace ilk heading into the 3 year old feature season. Gunning for a 4th straight victory the 3 year old Husson filly again tackles older, more experienced opposition. Pike should settle back of midfield with cover and unleash her explosive turn of foot as they swing the bend for home. Dragonlead has been scratched from consecutive Saturdays meaning that his last run was now 4 weeks ago, the months break is far from ideal but he is an out and out stayer and will get the 2200. Go Tiger is improving with every start and has carried 60kg to victory this campaign so 58 kilos of O'Donnell on his back is no worries. Doesn't possess the same finishing burst as Star of Husson but if the race is run at genuine pace it will bring him right into contention.
11. STAR OF HUSSON - 8. DRAGONLEAD - 2. GO TIGER
SUGGESTED BET - 11. STAR OF HUSSON $65
Gladstone was very heavily supported in the Sky Provincial Series Final two starts back but Pike never got a look at them caught behind a wall of horses from the turn til the finishing post. Last start Whiting jumped aboard, got well back in running and hit the line hard. Step up to a mile should be perfect fourth up from a spell and with a lovely barrier draw the 4 year old blotchy grey should prove very hard to hold out. The Cavalieri drops in grade and should be thundering home late. Kim Mini can run another cheeky race at odds. Her run last start where she beat home Run For Rum was just as good as his and she meets that galloper a half kilo better at the weights and yet is three times the price. Thread Lock is starting to put it all together and should be competitive again. Of the rest Timebomb broke his maiden tag convincing last start after joining the Price stable care of Bob and Sandra Peters' dispersal sale.
5. GLADSTONE - 1. THE CAVALIERI (NZ) - 8. KIM MINI
SUGGESTED BET - 5. GLADSTONE $65
Trading Day and Cool Trade clash in a battle of the Trade Fair stock with Fiddlers Elbow, Celebrity Miss and True Gold thrown into what is a cracking WA Day Plate. Trading Day was super impressive first up accounting for Fuchsia Bandana and Fiddlers Elbow. Dittman, a 3 kilo claiming apprentice who has ridden in New Zealand, France, Gold Coast and NSW rides meaning Trading Day carries only a half kilo more than main rivals Fiddlers Elbow and Cool Trade. Again contends with barrier 12 but has only finished outside the money twice in his career and should be there abouts again. Cool Trade is simply flying and she has won 4 in a row in 3 year old company. Steps out against the older opposition and has drawn awkwardly in 13. If she gets over and can sit one off the fence then she'll take some holding out, however, if she is forced to do some early work in running then might just be found wanting in the final 100m. Fiddlers Elbow is a classy sprinter having beaten Thateldo in his last preparation. 1300m looks right up his alley but he will probably conceed both the Trade Fair's 2 or 3 lengths as they swing the bend. Celebrity Miss was an impressive first up winner while True Gold has knockout hopes first up from a spell.
1. TRADING DAY - 6. COOL TRADE - 7. FIDDLERS ELBOW
SUGGESTED BET - 1. TRADING DAY $20 x $30
Kalahaar has 3 wins and a second from 4 second up runs, finished top 2 at 6 of 10 runs at Belmont and did run a very encouraging race first up behind Magnifisio in the Roma Cup coming from well off the speed to finish within a length. Drawn perfectly in barrier 4 and drops 4.5kg to the minimum meeting Elite Belle 2.5kg better at the weights he should give this a real shake without the likes of Magnifisio and Luckygray to contend with. Ranger is fast closing in on 1000 days since his last victory but second up over 1400m at Belmont Park looks to be his go. Adam Durrant now puts the polish on the 7 year old Testa Rossa gelding and I'm happy enough to throw him in as a winning hope. Elite Belle looks very hard to beat after her slashing first up effort when Pike got her clear running over the final 100m and she flew. Unfortunately, barrier 1 means that she will probably have to wait until late in the race to get going again and if Pike ends up 3 back on the fence then he'll need to weave some magic and pinch runs to find clear galloping room. Checkpoint will have his second and final run this preparation before hitting the paddock and is yet to win outside 1200m but the Snitzel gelding is more than capable of winning this Group 3 event.
7. KALAHAAR - 2. RANGER - 5. ELITE BELLE
SUGGESTED BET - 7. KALAHAAR $20 x $20
No surpise to regular readers, I can't go past Black Magic Miss, quite remarkably she's finished in the first four at 22 of her past 29 starts. If you're playing the exotics then lock her in as a roving banker. If you've got a places all-up she's a very handy final leg. If you're having an eachway flutter she'll look gone at the 600 but have no fear, she'll find her legs after straightening. Personally I'd love to see Neville Parnham engage left handed rider Glenn Smith. If he went Jarrad Noske windmill whip style on Black Magic Miss I'm convinced she'd respond. Tends to switch off before the corner, wobble the bend, lose a length or two on straightening and then hit overdrive for the final 100m. Will steal one of these races soon. Angel Wing has won 4 of her past 5 races and she looks well placed again by Foster and $10 is a very enticing price. Pure Glamour put in a nice run behind Trading Day finishing right along side Fuchsia Bandana and Fiddlers Elbow, $19 makes her a nice Raceday selection for the last in an attempt to steal a victory. Carry The Nation is incredibly hard to catch while Songburg is ticking along nicely and O'Donnell's first ride on a new horse is generally a gem.
5. BLACK MAGIC MISS - 1. ANGEL WING - 9. PURE GLAMOUR
SUGGESTED BET - 5. BLACK MAGIC MISS $20 x $20
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At those odds it's worth the risk :-bd
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So even though this week's field is embarrassingly small at five runners, what are the chances of him becoming the first 2yo of the season to win three on the bounce ?
His stall will have to not open for him to get done DW.
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Race #2 Metallica, Storm Sense, Takanori
Race #3 Sanctitude, Arcadia Rose, Mireille
Race #4 Star of Husson, Dragonlead, Go Tiger
Race #5 Kim Mini, Gladstone, The Cavalieri (NZ)
Race #6 Fiddlers Elbow, Mr Vadim, Trading Day
Race #7 Elite Belle, Checkpoint, Ranger
Race #8 Black Magic Miss, Angel Wing, Songbird
Win all up
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1. 1. REBEL KING
2. 8. WOMBIE'S LEGACY
3. 2. ARCADIA ROSE
4. 2. GO TIGER
5. 12. TIMEBOMB
6. 12. CELEBRITY MISS
7. 5. ELITE BELLE
8. 15. SONGBURG
Last prep she was 1st up over 1400m though. That's entirely different to 1200m. Remember last winter where she was a first up 2nd to Magnifisio over 1200m, running the fastest or second fastest last 600m all day? The following run she raced she was flat so I'm glad she didn't run a gut buster last start. The inside draw is the only query here but let's face it on class alone she is better than Kalahaar & Checkpoint so if they beat her tomorrow, it will be luck in running that brings her undone. She is one of my favs and I think if she had won(and she was a certainty beaten) that Peters Stakes last summer she finishes top 5 in the Railway. If she gets beat here she wins the Hyperion next start anyway so I'm happy to back her here(as the 2nd leg of a multi: Sacred Star, Bris r8 #5) and get it back next start if she gets rolled.
RIO likes this post.
R1 Rebel King
R2 Takanori
R3 Arcadia Rose
R4 Ningaloo Blitz/Star Of Husson
R5 Gladstone
R6 Celebrity Miss
R7 Elite Belle
R8 Moet Me