Is This WA Horse a Future Eastern States Cup Winner??

PC · January 2013

What do you think? Does this WA horse have a chance in the Caulfield/Melbourne Cups in the spring? Probably not but it would be nice for a WA stayer to do well in the east.

It all starts with an Adelaide Cup campaign. See link below to have a read.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/a/-/racing/15826066/talent-show-raring-to-go/

Cheers,
PC.

thefalcon · January 2013

only way to go.....best of luck to them.
that is NOT said tongue in cheek....a genuine wish for success.

RIO · January 2013

At this stage not in the Victorian cups, but the Adelaide Cup is a fair campaign for her..She is a Jeune and should get the distance..and if she gets dragged into the race as she did in the 2400m race i can't see why she wouldn't be able to give it a shot..

lets put it this way..I'd do it now whilst she is full of herself rather than leaving it a few months and saying ...she has stood up well, maybe we should have..and with her rating now there isn't much else that is too attractive....

But she'd have to do real well in the Adelaide campaign to front up for the Vic Cups..like really well..

Doesn't do well in Adelaide, come back and have another crack at the Perth Cup next year and then send her to the breeding barn

AndrewCarter · January 2013

Zero hope, unless it goes to a decent trainer over there for obvious reasons.

thefalcon · January 2013

bit cruel, andrew...not like you to rubbish the underdog.....

Devilwearsprada · January 2013

you would be a mug to back it to win, perth cup was it's first win in almost a year, to think it will replicate that again is unlikely, considering it has won once before at benchmark 80 then next race came last in a benchmark 68 lmao. Like ive said before, unpredictable... i just like bagging horses out, that have no chance, just because it fluked the perth cup people are getting all happy in the pants about it, go back and look at it's form.

AndrewCarter · January 2013

Not being cruel Falcon just stating a fact that it's a waste of time taking her over there as you have to know what you're doing to travel a horse successfully and it's not something the trainer would have a great deal of experience in doing if any, plus it had every possible break go its way in the Perth Cup.

Apart from Mr Moet which definitely didn't get the best ride I've ever seen from Staecky, it should also bump into a considerably stronger standard of field over there.

They would have more chance staying here and running in the Pinjarra and Bunbury Cups although maybe it would be crucified at the weights now even though it was a one off lucky win. I am also well aware it was a good run in the Cox as I gave it a realistic place chance at odds in the Cup but that doesn't mean it's going to reproduce the same form and get the same breaks in the run in any decent staying race over there especially with all the factors that are stacked against it.

thefalcon · January 2013

its the only option, andrew. good on them for having a go.
its adelaide or the breeding barn.

Piston_Broke · January 2013

plenty of WA horses go to an E/S trainer and cant get warm

Vorgtraffic · January 2013

e.g.. any horse sent to mick price

darkshines · January 2013

the falcon said:
its the only option, andrew. good on them for having a go.
its adelaide or the breeding barn.

Yep. It's rooted here with the rating. So if not now, next prep it has to leave (or be retired). Adelaide Cup? Jeez can't imagine them being superstars (no Euro blow-ins in that?)

It has one thing a lot won't - can stick. Not expecting it to win but could go better than most would think. First time in a staying race in WA it didn't strike a muddling pace - wins.

If Guyno (who got beat by pharquing Guest Wing) can subsequently beat a G1 winner in a decent 2400 race over there, I don't think it is completely unreasonable to have a throw at the stumps in an Adelaide Cup?

Maybe all along true ability has been hidden behind sit and sprint tempos.

Andrew - find it amusing how you'll champion some causes (ad nasuem) . . . . and then jump the fence and stick the slipper into others no problem . . .

TheDiva · January 2013

Like falc and darkshines, I agree, where else are they going to go with the horse?
Adelaide would be the weaker of the cups she could go to....the owners have a bit of coin now...so why not have a dip?

AndrewCarter · January 2013

Darkshines, how is being realistic sticking the slipper into anyone.

Successfully travelling a horse is a skill and requires experience to master, the trainer concerned has an extremely poor strike rate of winners to runners and that is a fact, you can argue as much as you like about that but that is a statistical reality.

They didn't expect to win when coming off a very good run on its home turf as the owners didn't even show up on the day, I obviously gave it a better chance than they did based upon its previous run as I had it in all of my trifecta's but with Mr Moet to win.

The race panned out perfectly for it and something I've failed to mention is that I've always had a bit of time for the horse but it's got about as much chance of winning an Adelaide Cup being trained by the current trainer as I would have if you saddled me up in it.

There's a bloke over there Jake Stephens who is a very good horseman and has a fantastic set up that would suit the horse who would be the ideal trainer for it, if you're going to go why not at least give it some hope.

Piston_Broke · January 2013

because Ballantyne knows the horse better than anyone, it might not have any hope winning the Adelaide Cup, bout as much hope as anyone gave it of winning the Perth Cup, but it won and the next easiest race for it would be the Adelaide Cup. Giving it to a E/S trainer has some benefit but it's not always the answer.

Rodent · January 2013

Andrew, you come across as an arrogant know all. I don't think you're as smart as you think you are. I for one will be cheering for team Ballantyne and Talent Show in the Adelaide Cup. The thing is, they could win that race and you'll find some mitigating circumstance rather than admit you're wrong.

Aussiereds72 · January 2013

Hahaa your spot on there RODENT admit He's wrong never happens

AndrewCarter · January 2013

Lets get serious, you're not actually going to compare the benefit of having someone with some ability training the horse from an ideal location to someone who knows the horse are you.

He knew the horse so well that they gave it a great chance in the Perth Cup didn't they, no one bothered to even turn up and watch it go around.

Like I said I gave it some place hope and had it in all of my trifecta's to run a place

AndrewCarter · January 2013

Opinionated yes, arrogant no, I express strong opinions that are more often than not based upon and backed up by facts if you don't like that, that is your problem not mine.

Successfully travelling and having a horse perform at its optimum is one of the hardest things a trainer can do, Ballantyne's record as a trainer overall hardly inspires confidence that he will be able to achieve that difficult task, that might be be a harsh assessment but its also factual.

Brunswick_cow · January 2013

Andrew Carter said:
Opinionated yes, arrogant no, I express strong opinions that are more often than not based upon and backed up by facts if you don't like that, that is your problem not mine.

Successfully travelling and having a horse perform at its optimum is one of the hardest things a trainer can do, Ballantyne's record as a trainer overall hardly inspires confidence that he will be able to achieve that difficult task, that might be be a harsh assessment but its also factual.

Opinionated YES, arrogant YES.

If I'm wrong them I'm a monkey's uncle and guess what.....I don't like banana's!! :(|) :(|)
=)) =)) =)) =)) =))
3:-O <):)

Fastmoney · January 2013

AC

Not really interested in the thread, however assessing a trainers ability based on his strike rate to runners isn`t the best guide.

Talent Show is a typical example of the horses that Ballantyne gets to train eg. generally been rejected by other trainers.

Apart from a select few, most trainers (including many high profile trainers) would struggle with that sort of stock.

Many of the Ballantyne type trainers would do just as well as many of the top trainers (here and interstate) if they had the same opportunities.

AndrewCarter · January 2013

Incorrect fastmoney he had quite a few of Bob Peter's horses a while back and with very few exceptions they didn't go any good either.

Anyway your welcome to back his horses I very rarely do except when I know their natural ability exceeds his training, a la Miss Omeresa, whom I followed last prep after finding it in trials and I got my decent pay day out of it first up this prep.

AndrewCarter · January 2013

Plenty of small trainers go good and train a hell of a lot better than some so called leading trainers and I support a number of them, Ballantyne however is not on that list. That's my considered opinion but you're entitled to your own.

thefalcon · January 2013

jeez andrew give the bloke a bit of peace.
hes trained a cup winner. have you?

AndrewCarter · January 2013

I'm just stating facts falcon I've been attacked for having an opinion about his relatively ability as a trainer and pointing out the blindingly obvious that travelling a horse and having it perform at its optimum is an extremely difficult assignment for someone who's done it previously let alone someone who's never had the experience of doing so.
There's very few trainers here that I would give a horse to and not necessarily because they can or can't train.

squirt · January 2013

Im going with AC here! The horse I have run in the PC, over 3200 did good.but a bit like the runner this year...LUCKY I;d be breeding!

Fastmoney · January 2013

Andrew Carter said:
Incorrect fastmoney he had quite a few of Bob Peter's horses a while back and with very few exceptions they didn't go any good either.

Anyway your welcome to back his horses I very rarely do except when I know their natural ability exceeds his training, a la Miss Omeresa, whom I followed last prep after finding it in trials and I got my decent pay day out of it first up this prep.

Andrew Carter said:
I'm just stating facts falcon I've been attacked for having an opinion about his relatively ability as a trainer and pointing out the blindingly obvious that travelling a horse and having it perform at its optimum is an extremely difficult assignment for someone who's done it previously let alone someone who's never had the experience of doing so.
There's very few trainers here that I would give a horse to and not necessarily because they can or can't train.

He may have had some of Bob Peters horses, but were they the first pick?

He was always the secondary stable.

You stated that your opinion was based on his winning strike rate.

If you think he can`t train that`s fine but using someones strike rate as a measuring stick isn`t a fair assessment tool.

Whether I or anyone else wants to back his horses has nothing to do with his training ability and if you decide to put a line through horses because of who trains them and ignore actual race form it raises serious doubts about your punting ability.

You don`t know Ballantyne, you don`t know how he trains but you are adamant he can`t train.

Your opinion of Jake Stephens is also dubious.

Training winners at Gawler, Murray Bridge,Balaklava and Strathalbyn for under 10K isn`t much of a claim to fame.

Without Alcopop no-one would even know his name.

You have repeatedly mentioned that you are stating facts to support your opinion but I can`t see any facts in this thread.

Aussiereds72 · January 2013

fast money you will get used to that

AndrewCarter · January 2013

Jake Stephens has already proven he can travel a horse for starters having travelled to HK and have the horse run out of his skin.
Alcopop has had more problems than you can poke a stick at yet is still racing well at the very top level as an 8yo, that alone suggests that the guy has some idea about what he's doing, and his horses that have ability when they strike form they invariably string together a number of wins, again you have to be able to train to keep them at their peak for any length of time.
Don't put words into my mouth either, do you really think I use Ballantyne's strike rate or that of other trainers as an evaluation of their relative ability, it is a minor indicator of their relative ability if you don't have any idea about the trainer and that's it. I was using that purely as an indicator to some who may not know anything about him as a trainer.
Secondly he didn't get the second stringers from Bob Peters either and in addition to this he has had plenty of recent horses of his own that have shown ability while fresh and at their first couple of starts or in trials and not go on. His horses have very little depth to their preparation and if you were to be brutally honest I wouldn't give him a hobby horse. He's a very average trainer but some horses do suit certain trainers and Talent Show, a mare in form, is the exception to the rule.

Rodent · January 2013

Andrew Carter said:
Opinionated yes, arrogant no, I express strong opinions that are more often than not based upon and backed up by facts if you don't like that, that is your problem not mine.

Arrogant: overbearing, presumtuous

Are you still sure you're not arrogant?

Fastmoney · January 2013

Andrew Carter said:
Jake Stephens has already proven he can travel a horse for starters having travelled to HK and have the horse run out of his skin.
Alcopop has had more problems than you can poke a stick at yet is still racing well at the very top level as an 8yo, that alone suggests that the guy has some idea about what he's doing, and his horses that have ability when they strike form they invariably string together a number of wins, again you have to be able to train to keep them at their peak for any length of time.
Don't put words into my mouth either, do you really think I use Ballantyne's strike rate or that of other trainers as an evaluation of their relative ability, it is a minor indicator of their relative ability if you don't have any idea about the trainer and that's it. I was using that purely as an indicator to some who may not know anything about him as a trainer.
Secondly he didn't get the second stringers from Bob Peters either and in addition to this he has had plenty of recent horses of his own that have shown ability while fresh and at their first couple of starts or in trials and not go on. His horses have very little depth to their preparation and if you were to be brutally honest I wouldn't give him a hobby horse. He's a very average trainer but some horses do suit certain trainers and Talent Show, a mare in form, is the exception to the rule.

I guess you`re the leader of the J. Stephens fan club.

You obviously want to ignore his lack of Metro wins by the other horses in his stable and base your judgement of his training ability on one horse.

Can`t see where I put words into your mouth.

You`ve made it clear that you think Ballantyne can`t train.

That is your opinion but don`t kid yourself it is based on fact.

Throwing up strike rates, Bob Peters horses, horses not going on and your own punting prowess shows your warped bias against one trainer, regardless of whatever success he has.

Convincing yourself WITHOUT FACTS is an ill - informed opinion

Why don`t you list all the horses that have left Ballantyne`s stable that have improved and gone on to win multiple City races.

If you think Balllantyne is a complete mug why don`t get your mates together, buy 1 of his horses and send it to Stephens and see how it goes.

Until you do that your opinion is just that, an opinion, no better and probably worse than anyone elses.

TheDiva · January 2013

I'm pretty certain Ballantine got the second stringers.
Check out the ammo of the others that were training for bob at the time and compare them.
Much like Ross and Clint price are playing second fiddle to Williams at present, you wouldn't judge them on that?

G'day Punter!

In this Discussion

Who's Online

Is This WA Horse a Future Eastern States Cup Winner??

Comments