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Belmont 30/05 Preview & Selections

West Australian Racing
ChrisChris    5,733 posts

Race 1: TABtouch Punters Club Now On Sale Handicap(1000m)

A field of three-year-old sprinters gets the day startedunder handicap conditions. Long Service Leaf is a highly progressivegelding from the Neville Parnham yard , ridden by Chris Parnham. He arrivespeak-fit and full of confidence after fighting off rivals to secure a narrowbut gritty victory over this track and distance in CL5 company last start.Boasting an outstanding career placement consistency , he possesses a tacticaladvantage from barrier 6. The main danger is Eternal Wine, a MichaelLane-trained filly who won a 3YO OMWLY event over this track and distancebefore going for a spell. She maps beautifully from barrier 1 under BradParnham and looms as the primary saver bet.

  • Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) — Long Service Leaf ($3.58)

Selection Matrix

Selection

Danger

Comment

Long Service Leaf

Eternal Wine

Peak fitness and an excellent place record make him a highly reliable anchor to start the card.

Framed Betting Market (105% Total)

1. Baby Pearl: $5.59 | 2. Sound Of Speed:$15.64 | 3. Long Service Leaf: $3.58 | 4. Eternal Wine: $9.50 | 5.Hot Sea: $4.92 | 6. Paint It Red: $8.38 | 7. We Love Charlie:$10.06

Race 2: Janet Amaglio Memorial Handicap (1000m)

This 1000m dash features a highly competitive blend ofspeed. Magnique maps to control the race for Simon A Miller. While shefaded to tenth first-up after a wide trip , she was incredibly sharp whenholding on for second at Ascot prior to that. She drops significantly in gradehere, gets the benefit of apprentice Natika Riordan claiming down her weight ,and has historically placed consistently across her career starts. She willprove incredibly tough to catch. Overdrive is the clear threat; she putin a massive performance to finish second over this track and distance laststart , and Chris Parnham will ensure she is flying late from the widest gate.

  • Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) — Magnique ($3.78)

Selection Matrix

Selection

Danger

Comment

Magnique

Overdrive

Class drop and a substantial weight relief give her the tactical edge to dictate from the front.

Framed Betting Market (105% Total)

1. Magnique: $3.78 | 2. Let's Talk: $6.46 | 3.Overdrive: $4.77 | 4. Define Beautiful: $9.45 | 5. King's Drama:$7.96 | 6. Spirited Strike: $11.93 | 7. Bassett Hound: $9.45

Race 3: Quayclean Plate (1300m)

An ambiguous set-weights plate for the two-year-olds whereprofessional race day experience is paramount. She's A Splinter looksexcellent value for Josh Brown and Chris Parnham. She broke through for astylish win over 1200m at Pinjarra last start, hitting the line with realauthority despite racing greenly. The extra 100m is an absolute asset for herracing style. Swift Ruler is the default danger; he hit the line withintent for third over 1200m last start and gets the services of William Pikefrom barrier 10.

  • Recommended Bet: Bet (1 Unit) — She's A Splinter ($5.43)

Selection Matrix

Selection

Danger

Comment

She's A Splinter

Swift Ruler

A rare juvenile with a win already under her belt; the 1300m trip suits her perfectly.

Framed Betting Market (105% Total)

1. Swift Ruler: $4.74 | 2. Encroaching: $6.32| 3. Manhattan Rhythm: $18.76 | 4. Spirit Of Dan: $11.85 | 5.Heza Hellraiser: $23.69 | 6. She's A Splinter: $5.43 | 7. MysticSmile: $15.79 | 8. Wild Promise: $23.69 | 9. Untamed Stare:$23.69 | 10. Kashmira: $23.69 | 11. Arabian Charm: $7.90

Race 4: Vale Lois Taylor Handicap (1000m)

The feature sprint of the day provides an electric pacescenario. Desert Whisper carries a hefty 61.0kg but gets an importantweight claim from apprentice Natika Riordan. This mare has raw, unadulteratedspeed, boasting 7 victories over the 1000m short course. She won beautifully atAscot two starts back by sustaining a fierce tempo , and she loves this track. KayTee Why is the primary threat; he is beautifully weighted at 58.0kg forWilliam Pike and has a history of peak performances at this exact track anddistance. For the value seekers, Ginnivan represents a high-odds roughieworth micro-staking ; he handles Belmont exceptionally well first-up and couldsurprise.

  • Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) — Desert Whisper ($2.60)
  • Roughie Value: Bomb (0.5 Units) — Ginnivan ($20.55)

Selection Matrix

Selection

Danger

Comment

Desert Whisper

Kay Tee Why

Her career record and distance dominance make her the clear standard-bearer.

Framed Betting Market (105% Total)

1. Desert Whisper: $2.60 | 2. Ginnivan: $20.55| 3. Earthstorm: $9.19 | 4. Kay Tee Why: $5.62 | 5. Too Dardy:$11.36 | 6. Keep Ita Mystery: $9.19 | 7. The Calabrese: $14.06 | 8.Lombadina: $16.22

Race 5: Mrs Mac's Handicap (2100m)

The stayers stretch out over 2100m. Antique Star isour standout selection of the day. She drops into a highly comfortable grade,having completely dictated terms and won easily over 2200m on a soft track heretwo weeks ago. She carries 60.5kg but drops to a highly competitive weightafter Cassey Martinan’s 3kg apprentice claim. With a strong career placefrequency, she is perfectly set up to win again. I Love Your Smile isthe main danger; she caught the eye late when flashing home behind SixinchHeels over a mile last week and will appreciate stepping up to her petdistance.

  • Recommended Bet: Best Bet (3 Units) — Antique Star ($2.49)

Selection Matrix

Selection

Danger

Comment

Antique Star

I Love Your Smile

Dictated the pace to win effortlessly here last start and looks impossible to drop after the claim.

Framed Betting Market (105% Total)

1. Antique Star: $2.49 | 2. I Love Your Smile:$4.32 | 3. Dark Looks: $7.19 | 4. Candlelight Supper: $13.28 | 5.I Dreamed A Dream: $13.28 | 6. Icandoit Onmyown: $36.52 | 7.Savorski: $27.67 | 8. Shamister: $27.67 | 9. Tribal Ruler:$36.52

Race 6: PKF Perth - Hyperion Stakes (Group 3) (1600m)

The headline weight-for-age showcase features some of WA'sfinest. Western Empire effectively picks himself here. His first-upvictory in the Belmont Sprint two weeks ago was utterly arrogant, giving hisrivals a head start before effortlessly sailing away late. He is fitter forthat run, steps up to his preferred mile distance , and gets William Pike inthe saddle. Rope Them In is the natural danger after chasing him homefor a solid second last start, but he will likely be playing for minor honorsagain.

  • Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) — Western Empire ($1.98)

Selection Matrix

Selection

Danger

Comment

Western Empire

Rope Them In

An elite class animal whose first-up win was so dominant that a repeat performance looks inevitable.

Framed Betting Market (105% Total)

1. Western Empire: $1.98 | 2. Magnificent Andy:$13.93 | 3. Rope Them In: $9.11 | 4. Let's Galahvant: $27.85 | 5.Diamond Scene: $22.50 | 6. Sentimental Hero: $22.50 | 7. WestStar: $18.21 | 8. Ginger Baker: $27.85 | 9. River Rubicon:$37.49 | 10. In Good Order: $37.49 | 11. Fluro Neuro: $24.64 | 12.Hoba West: $27.85 | 13. Our Paladin Al: $54.63

Race 7: TABtouch - Westspeed Platinum Series Heat 2(1200m)

A wide-open heat where value can be extracted. MtShirataku is the top seed for the Grant & Alana Williams stable. He putin an enormous performance first-up, forced to sit wide with no cover on thespeed before fighting bravely to be narrowly pipped by Go Go Grommet. With asofter run in transit under Lucy Fiore, he is poised to avenge that defeat. Acornis the primary threat; he was slightly plain behind Go Go Grommet last startbut is a much sharper prospect when ridden with cover, making him a live threatfor William Pike.

  • Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) — Mt Shirataku ($2.16)

Selection Matrix

Selection

Danger

Comment

Mt Shirataku

Acorn

Strips fitter after a brutal, wide run first-up. Expect a cleaner map and a strong response.

Framed Betting Market (105% Total)

1. Ruler Rocket: $15.17 | 2. Go Go Grommet:$11.67 | 3. Mt Shirataku: $2.16 | 4. Acorn: $5.37 | 5.Bartime: $19.84 | 6. Speed Bubble: $30.34 | 7. Bonny Rock:$30.34 | 8. Flagship: $30.34 | 9. Invincible Ruby: $39.68 | 10.Canny Jack: $59.52 | 11. Diamonds'n'rubies: $24.51 | 12. MyLovely Pet: $59.52

Race 8: Happy 19th Birthday Max Wishart Handicap (1600m)

An intriguing mile handicap. Herault stands out as ahighly promising three-year-old for Jason Miller. He is tracking beautifullythis preparation, winning with real authority over 1400m at Belmont last startafter stalking the pace. He retains the services of William Pike , holds astrong lifetime place rate, and looks ready to relish the step up to 1600m. AntiqueQueen is the main danger; she caught the eye working home with purpose fromthe rear last week and will likely settle much closer today.

  • Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) — Herault ($3.23)

Selection Matrix

Selection

Danger

Comment

Herault

Antique Queen

Elite 3YO with a high cruising speed who handles the Belmont configuration perfectly.

Framed Betting Market (105% Total)

1. Grand Reserve: $28.15 | 2. Herault: $3.23 |3. Musgrave: $14.08 | 4. Amamus: $28.15 | 5. Here for Cheques:$18.77 | 6. I'm Crafty: $28.15 | 7. Antique Queen: $7.30 | 8.Barecove Rock: $18.77 | 9. Macciateau: $28.15 | 10. Pray Again:$21.90 | 11. Queen Aria: $19.81 | 12. Spellborn: $14.08 | 13.Where's My Lunch: $37.54 | 14. Diablo Lad: $37.54 | 15. GibraltarGold: $21.90 | 16. Tallangatta: $56.30

Race 9: Solutions Matchmaking Handicap (1400m)

Note: Sisu Warrior has been scratched from this event . Weclose out the card over 1400m. Cool Memory resumes for Darren McAuliffeand represents clear class value. He is a proven first-up performer whopreviously toyed with his rivals to win the Listed Farnley Stakes over thistrack and distance on a heavy track. He carries the top weight of 61.5kg , buthis career stats confirm his class superiority over this field. ThermosphereLad is the main danger; he is ultra-consistent, strips fit, and maps tolead or sit right on the speed from barrier 11.

  • Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) — Cool Memory ($4.70)

Selection Matrix

Selection

Danger

Comment

Cool Memory

Thermosphere Lad

A class animal with excellent fresh records who owns a dynamic winning history at this track and distance.

Framed Betting Market (105% Total)

1. Cool Memory: $4.70 | 2. Rokanori: $17.76 | 3.Simply: $21.94 | 4. Currimundi: $27.17 | 5. Kaptain Kaos:$13.58 | 6. Bakeel: $21.94 | 7. Thermosphere Lad: $8.88 | 8.Drakaina: $17.76 | 9. Russian to the Bar: $17.76 | 10. WubinGold: $35.53 | 11. Opportunistic: $13.58 | 12. Petula: $10.45| 13. Wineaclocksumwhere: $27.17 | 14. Noteworthy: $17.76 | 15.Snippy Which: $15.67

Summary of Best Bets

Confidence Level

Race

Horse Name

Current Live Price

Best Bet

Race 5

Antique Star

$2.49

High

Race 2

Magnique

$3.78

High

Race 4

Desert Whisper

$2.60

High

Race 6

Western Empire

$1.98

High

Race 7

Mt Shirataku

$2.16

High

Race 8

Herault

$3.23

Medium

Race 1

Long Service Leaf

$3.58

Medium

Race 9

Cool Memory

$4.70

Bet

Race 3

She's A Splinter

$5.43

Bomb

Race 4

Ginnivan

$20.55

 

Comments

  • (May 30 01:41AM )
    thefalconthefalcon    20,478 posts
    thanks for your excellent input. =D>

    sonny likes this post.

  • (May 30 03:11AM )
    SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    8,450 posts
    No selections Falcon?

    Hope you are going well on the health front.
  • (May 30 03:22AM )
    SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    8,450 posts
    edited May 30
    The bomb selection Ginnivan is a good each way chance for Jim Taylor in the race acknowledging Lois

    Each way chances for me......

    R5 Dark Looks has conditions to suit and can win
    R6 Hoba West a big chance at long odds and Let's Galahvant a bolter is a chance for novelties
    R7 Mt Shirataku combined with Invincible Ruby in novelties
    R8 Musgrave from Grand Reserve and I'm Crafty
    R9 Noteworthy to run a big race fresh with Currimundi a maddie

  • (May 30 04:28AM )
    Precision1Precision1    588 posts
    If you can find a margin between 2nd and 3rd in race 4 you are better than me………
  • (May 31 03:07AM )
    thefalconthefalcon    20,478 posts
    thanks slip, all's well atm but when you've hit the big 8 zero anything can go wrong. especially after a lifetime of booze and ciggies.
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