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Bunbury Australia Day 26/01 Preview & Selections

West Australian Racing
ChrisChris    5,697 posts

Race 1: NELSON IRRIGATION AUSTRALIA MAIDEN (1000m)

This is a classic 3YO speed battle. Maythisbetheone looks the ultimate professional here. After a tough run in Listed company last prep, she returned with a very game third at Ascot over this distance. She carries 55kg, maps to sit right on the speed from barrier 7, and has the fitness edge over the debutants. The main danger is Deepest Desire, who represents the powerful Pearce camp. He’s trialled like a horse that knows his job, but first-up at the 1000m is a big ask compared to a horse with race fitness.

Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) - MAYTHISBETHEONE ($2.45)

Bomb: Hard To Ignore ($11.00) - Trialling like a jet and could surprise the more fancied runners if they over-cook the lead.

SelectionDangerComment
MaythisbetheoneDeepest DesireFitness and Ascot form vs. Sharp trialler from top yard.

Assessed Market: Maythisbetheone $2.30, Deepest Desire $4.00, My Testimony $4.50, Others $12+


Race 2: HUNTER INDUSTRIES MAIDEN (1000m)

If you’re looking for a short-priced standout, Sharpassa is the one. She was tenacious on debut when holding third at this track and distance. She’s drawn ideally in barrier 4 and gets the services of Lucy Fiore. She’s a "jump and run" type that fits the profile for this rail position perfectly. Hot Chix Lane is the saver; she has been consistent in trials and has enough gate speed to stay out of trouble from the inside alley.

Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) - SHARPASSA ($1.80)

Bomb: Ziolite ($4.80) - Blinkers go on today for the first time, and that usually signals a sharp improvement in speed.

SelectionDangerComment
SharpassaHot Chix LaneProven track form vs. Inside draw and trial consistency.

Assessed Market: Sharpassa $1.75, Hot Chix Lane $4.00, Ziolite $5.50, Others $20+


Race 3: TORO AUSTRALIA MAIDEN (1677m)

Magic Carats is arguably the most reliable horse on the card. With a career-to-date placing rate that would make most owners weep with joy, he finds a race with very little depth. He ran a cracking second here over this trip two starts back and stayed on well for fourth over 1400m last time. Up to 1677m is exactly what he wants. Keri Commander is the one to watch for the saver; if she can dictate from the front, she might give the favorite a fright.

Recommended Bet: Best Bet (3 Units) - MAGIC CARATS ($1.60)

Bomb: Excavation ($9.00) - Has been "just okay" lately, but a return to Bunbury could spark him.

SelectionDangerComment
Magic CaratsKeri CommanderThe class runner vs. On-pace threat.

Assessed Market: Magic Carats $1.55, Keri Commander $7.50, Kody's Belle $8.50, Others $20+


Race 4: NUTRIEN WATER MAIDEN (1400m)

The widest open race of the day. Vampi Queen showed good closing speed on debut to run fifth at this track. With natural improvement and a step up to 1400m, she looks well-placed. However, Barney Rommel is a massive danger. He hit the line hard for second at Pinjarra last start and seems to be relishing the 1200m+ trips. If he gets a clear run from the wide gate, he’s the one they have to hold out.

Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) - VAMPI QUEEN ($2.90)

Bomb: Poppy's Roses ($8.50) - Was luckless last start and could sneak into the money at double figures.

SelectionDangerComment
Vampi QueenBarney RommelClosing speed vs. Strong recent second-place form.

Assessed Market: Vampi Queen $3.20, Barney Rommel $4.50, Principal Dealer $7.50, Others $10+

Comments

  • ChrisChris    5,697 posts

    Race 5: WITTENS IRRIGATION & DESIGN HCP (1677m)

    Annie Warbucks is knocking loudly on the door. She was outclassed slightly in Metro grade but her previous form at the distance is excellent. She maps to sit in the first four and should have first run on the staying types. Venus King is the danger; he’s a Class 1 winner at this track and distance previously and the step up in trip today is exactly what the trainer ordered after a flat run last start.

    Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) - ANNIE WARBUCKS ($2.80)

    Bomb: Maximum Impact ($8.00) - An old stager who is very capable of popping up when the speed is on.

    SelectionDangerComment
    Annie WarbucksVenus KingConsistency vs. Proven track/distance winner.

    Assessed Market: Annie Warbucks $3.00, Venus King $4.20, Tosen Impact $5.50, Others $10+


    Race 6: SWAN DRAUGHT HANDICAP (1000m)

    With the scratching of On The Full, this becomes a match race between Galway Shawl and Hezangelic. I’m leaning toward Galway Shawl; she is 3-from-3 at this track and is a 1000m specialist. She maps to sit behind the speed and peel out late. Hezangelic will lead for fun, and on this rail, he might be impossible to catch, but the favorite has the "will to win" that is hard to bet against.

    Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) - GALWAY SHAWL ($2.45)

    Bomb: Lost Gravity ($9.00) - Has metro class and if the leaders cut each other's throats, he’s the closer.

    SelectionDangerComment
    Galway ShawlHezangelicUnbeaten at track vs. Speed merchant who will lead.

    Assessed Market: Galway Shawl $2.40, Hezangelic $4.50, Coondle $6.00, Others $15+


    Race 7: TABTOUCH SUPPORTS BUNBURY RACING HCP (1100m)

    They are calling Rolling Ruler the "Good Thing" of the day, and it’s hard to argue. He was a monster last prep, winning in Metro grade and then running a huge race in the Summer series at Ascot. He’s essentially a Class 5 horse in a Class 3 race. He’ll carry the 60.5kg with ease and should prove too classy. Miss Finkmeyer won brilliantly here last start and is the obvious saver, but she’ll need a lot of luck to beat the favorite if he's anywhere near 100% fit.

    Recommended Bet: Best Bet (3 Units) - ROLLING RULER ($1.50)

    Bomb: Pingers ($8.00) - Fitter for the first-up win and has the gate speed to keep things interesting.

    SelectionDangerComment
    Rolling RulerMiss FinkmeyerClass above vs. Last-start track winner.

    Assessed Market: Rolling Ruler $1.50, Miss Finkmeyer $6.00, Pingers $9.00, Others $20+


    Summary of Best Bets

    ConfidenceStakeHorseRace
    Best Bet3 UnitsMagic CaratsRace 3
    Best Bet3 UnitsRolling RulerRace 7
    High2 UnitsSharpassaRace 2
    High2 UnitsMaythisbetheoneRace 1
    High2 UnitsGalway ShawlRace 6
    Medium1.5 UnitsVampi QueenRace 4
    Medium1.5 UnitsAnnie WarbucksRace 5
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,930 posts
    edited January 26
    The interesting runner is former Victorian Tosen Impact - a battling type who can stick on in his races, no word beater can assure but he might not have to be to beat this lot. Very one paced when I’ve seen it go around.

    Good luck to former hoop Takahide Ikenushi he was a very good jockey and should have got more opportunities.
  • GrandpaGrandpa    23 posts
    Barney Rommel big overs according to AI like it but the barrier is a concern also like Jobeths Prayer a bit in that race. Enjoy Australia Day fellow Aussies and punters

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • Thoroly_BreadThoroly_Bread    2,348 posts
    I'll throw some tips up now that I can participate on my phone.

    I'll do them as they go because it changes so much as the day goes on.

    Ill try get them in by 5min to go.

  • Thoroly_BreadThoroly_Bread    2,348 posts
    Lyn's Star

    Drop it in on Betfair $100ew

    $9 for the win
    $2.44 place - not matched taking BSP
  • Thoroly_BreadThoroly_Bread    2,348 posts
    Chris said:

    Race 5: WITTENS IRRIGATION & DESIGN HCP (1677m)

    Annie Warbucks is knocking loudly on the door. She was outclassed slightly in Metro grade but her previous form at the distance is excellent. She maps to sit in the first four and should have first run on the staying types. Venus King is the danger; he’s a Class 1 winner at this track and distance previously and the step up in trip today is exactly what the trainer ordered after a flat run last start.

    Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) - ANNIE WARBUCKS ($2.80)

    Bomb: Maximum Impact ($8.00) - An old stager who is very capable of popping up when the speed is on.

    SelectionDangerComment
    Annie WarbucksVenus KingConsistency vs. Proven track/distance winner.

    Assessed Market: Annie Warbucks $3.00, Venus King $4.20, Tosen Impact $5.50, Others $10+


    Race 6: SWAN DRAUGHT HANDICAP (1000m)

    With the scratching of On The Full, this becomes a match race between Galway Shawl and Hezangelic. I’m leaning toward Galway Shawl; she is 3-from-3 at this track and is a 1000m specialist. She maps to sit behind the speed and peel out late. Hezangelic will lead for fun, and on this rail, he might be impossible to catch, but the favorite has the "will to win" that is hard to bet against.

    Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) - GALWAY SHAWL ($2.45)

    Bomb: Lost Gravity ($9.00) - Has metro class and if the leaders cut each other's throats, he’s the closer.

    SelectionDangerComment
    Galway ShawlHezangelicUnbeaten at track vs. Speed merchant who will lead.

    Assessed Market: Galway Shawl $2.40, Hezangelic $4.50, Coondle $6.00, Others $15+


    Race 7: TABTOUCH SUPPORTS BUNBURY RACING HCP (1100m)

    They are calling Rolling Ruler the "Good Thing" of the day, and it’s hard to argue. He was a monster last prep, winning in Metro grade and then running a huge race in the Summer series at Ascot. He’s essentially a Class 5 horse in a Class 3 race. He’ll carry the 60.5kg with ease and should prove too classy. Miss Finkmeyer won brilliantly here last start and is the obvious saver, but she’ll need a lot of luck to beat the favorite if he's anywhere near 100% fit.

    Recommended Bet: Best Bet (3 Units) - ROLLING RULER ($1.50)

    Bomb: Pingers ($8.00) - Fitter for the first-up win and has the gate speed to keep things interesting.

    SelectionDangerComment
    Rolling RulerMiss FinkmeyerClass above vs. Last-start track winner.

    Assessed Market: Rolling Ruler $1.50, Miss Finkmeyer $6.00, Pingers $9.00, Others $20+


    Summary of Best Bets

    ConfidenceStakeHorseRace
    Best Bet3 UnitsMagic CaratsRace 3
    Best Bet3 UnitsRolling RulerRace 7
    High2 UnitsSharpassaRace 2
    High2 UnitsMaythisbetheoneRace 1
    High2 UnitsGalway ShawlRace 6
    Medium1.5 UnitsVampi QueenRace 4
    Medium1.5 UnitsAnnie WarbucksRace 5
    Annie Warbucks is certainly the blackbooker from that.
  • ChrisChris    5,697 posts
    Well done to Bruno Monteleone - 60 starts for 1 win and $56,000 in prizemoney, that's patience personified

    Thoroly_Bread likes this post.

  • Thoroly_BreadThoroly_Bread    2,348 posts
    I like Desert Life early in for race 6

    Ill throw a bit in and try get some good odds early.

    $50 win matched at $14

    $50 in at $3.50 unmatched at this stage.

    I'll keep another $50ew closer to the jump incase the price blows out
  • Thoroly_BreadThoroly_Bread    2,348 posts
    $100ew on Desert Life so a positive result but I thought we would take that
  • Thoroly_BreadThoroly_Bread    2,348 posts
    The last is a tough one, Rolling Ruler is the favourite on paper and the favourite in the market by a long way but it will have none of mine

    Weight will stop a train so I'll look for a sneaky further down the page
  • Thoroly_BreadThoroly_Bread    2,348 posts
    Miss Fynkmyer.

    Let's see what we can get here.

  • Thoroly_BreadThoroly_Bread    2,348 posts
    I have $200 on Miss Fynkmyer for the place at $1.60

    I'm going to hold off for now on the won bet.

    If Rolling Ruler starts even money I'll back him.

    Otherwise win bet will be on Miss Fynkmyer $100
  • Thoroly_BreadThoroly_Bread    2,348 posts
    I missed the win bet but had $200p at $1.41

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

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