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- Bushbookie January 16
- Chris January 16
- Ngawyni January 17
- Ridersonthestorm33 January 18
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Ascot 17/01 Preview & Selections
West Australian Racing
Chris
5,697 posts
Race 1: MAGIC MILLIONS PLATE (1000m)
The babies kick us off and it’s hard to look past Daryte (6). She was a standout in her Belmont trial on Jan 5, cruising away to win by a length with plenty in hand. William Pike takes the ride for Trevor Andrews, which is usually a "bet first, ask questions later" scenario. Her main threat is Burning Bridges (1), who showed grit when third on debut at Pinjarra and comes from the powerful Parnham camp.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) - Daryte ($2.30)
| Selection | Danger | Comment |
| Daryte | Burning Bridges | Trial star with the Wizard on board. Bridges has the race experience. |
Framed Market (105%)
Daryte: $2.10
Burning Bridges: $4.00
Farnova: $6.00
Kute As Kan Be: $12.00
Field: $21.00+
Race 2: CELEBRATION OF LIFE DAY TROPHY (1500m)
Noteworthy (4) is the class runner here, dropping back from a solid fifth in the Group 3 La Trice. She loves this track with three wins and multiple placings. With only 55.5kg and Clint Johnston-Porter riding, she should have the engine to overhaul Silver Eye (5), who is a "fifty percenter" (15 places from 27 starts) and won over 1400m here last start.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) - Noteworthy ($2.60)
| Selection | Danger | Comment |
| Noteworthy | Silver Eye | Big drop in class from Group company. Silver Eye is the form danger. |
Framed Market (105%)
Noteworthy: $2.40
Silver Eye: $3.50
Without Reg: $5.00
Bruce Almighty: $10.00
Field: $21.00+
Race 3: MCA POLYTRACK HANDICAP (1800m)
This is a match-up of "fifty percenters." Our Paladin Al (6) has a ridiculous strike rate, placing in 8 of his 9 lifetime starts. He drops 3kg today thanks to Holly Nottle’s apprentice claim, bringing him down to a very competitive weight. He was narrowly beaten last start after a monster win the run prior. Battle Commander (7) is the danger, having fended off challengers to win at this track and distance just 16 days ago.
Recommended Bet: Best Bet (3 Units) - Our Paladin Al ($1.90)
Bomb: Atlantis Beach (8) at $41.00. He had a horror run at Bunbury but his best is better than these odds.
| Selection | Danger | Comment |
| Our Paladin Al | Battle Commander | Nottle’s 3kg claim is the tie-breaker for this consistent type. |
Framed Market (105%)
Our Paladin Al: $1.85
Battle Commander: $6.00
Fly With Caution: $7.50
Arcadia Park: $9.00
Field: $15.00+
Race 4: SWAN DRAUGHT PLATE (1200m)
Playin'it Sweet (1) is arguably the best horse on the card. She is a 100% "fifty percenter" (9 starts, 9 times in the frame) and a Listed winner. She drops from a high-quality second-place finish to a SWP grade here. More importantly, Holly Nottle’s 3kg claim offsets the big weight, making her a "good thing" in my book. She's Hot (7) won well at Pinjarra last start but needs to find another gear to beat the top pick.
Recommended Bet: Best Bet (3 Units) - Playin'it Sweet ($1.80)
| Selection | Danger | Comment |
| Playin'it Sweet | She's Hot | Listed winner dropping in grade with a weight claim. Too good. |
Framed Market (105%)
Playin'it Sweet: $1.65
She's Hot: $5.50
Bassett Hound: $6.00
Our Naughty Secret: $15.00
Field: $26.00+
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Comments
Race 5: WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1400m)
This is a wide-open affair, but Helluva Goddess represents great value. She’s a 57% career placer and her win two starts back was dominant. She gets the 3kg claim and drawn 8, she can slot in just behind the speed. Desert Dancing is the favorite and deservedly so after a string of seconds, but I'm betting on the "Goddess" to overhaul her late.
Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) - Helluva Goddess ($3.70)
Betting Market (105%)
Race 6: BISLEY WORKWEAR HANDICAP (1200m)
Supernatural is the one to beat. With 9 placings from 15 starts (60%), she is in career-best form following a "wings on her feet" win at Albany. Adam Durrant has her flying and the Tech Ratings have her as a clear 100. Sonoftheboss is the danger; he’s a 53% placer who loves to set a high tempo.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) - Supernatural ($2.70)
Betting Market (105%)
Race 7: DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP (1500m)
Bold Hero looks perfectly placed here. He’s a 53% career placer and was arguably the run of the race last start when beaten for speed early but finishing off like a steam train. Up to 1500m is exactly what he wants. Dennis Choux is the saver; another 53% placer who showed a brilliant turn of foot for second last start.
Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) - Bold Hero ($4.40)
Betting Market (105%)
Race 8: RELIABLE ASSET MAINTENANCE HANDICAP (1800m)
Territory Man has only had 5 starts but has finished in the money 4 times (80%). He’s a progressive type and Williams/Pike is a combination that rarely misses in these metro special conditions races. He was game when second over 1600m and the extra 200m is a plus. Sweet Surrender is the main threat, coming off a stylish win at Geraldton.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) - Territory Man ($2.35)
Betting Market (105%)
Race 9: PETERS INVESTMENTS HANDICAP (1000m)
We wrap up the day with a flyer. Santanova is as honest as they come with 9 placings from 13 starts (69%). She was a victim of a wide gate last start and did a mountain of work. Drawn 8 here, Pike should be able to find a more economical path. Twisted Steel is the class, but Santanova’s consistency at the 1000m dash is the deciding factor.
Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) - Santanova ($4.80)
Betting Market (105%)
Summary of Best Bets
They’re in race 5 - liked his run recently at Albany made up solid ground on the short priced favourite - was a good return to form - going each way - The Spruiker.
In the same event - this guy can be hard to follow, saw him thunder home one Saturday when placed at Belmont Park at100/1 was also second beaten a nose in a Pinjarra Grandstand Cup going back a bit, however also seen him be the first horse beaten, he’s a bit of a one paced grinder now, first up run at Pinjarra was good when worked hard 3 wide no cover and boxed on well to finish 4th - has a good draw - each way - Royal Gap.
They around 12/1 and 20/1, hoping one of them can scrape into the money.
Ridersonthestorm33 dislikes this post.
Royal Gap - Geraldton horse through and through. Very hard to follow that one.