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Albany selections

West Australian Racing

Race 1: TABTOUCH HAVE YOU GOT THE TOUCH MAIDEN (1600m)

Maidens over the mile are often where bankrolls go to die, but we have to start somewhere. Sea Of Galilee looks the obvious one here. The 4YO gelding hasn't set the world on fire, but in a field this thin, his recent 3rd at this track and distance suggests he’s finding his feet. He maps to get a soft run and simply needs to reproduce his last start to go close.

The Danger: Arafisio. She’s been around the block more times than a taxi driver, but her best runs have been at this track. If the track is genuinely Soft, her experience might just pinch a place.

SelectionDangerComment
Sea Of GalileeArafisioNot a race to mortgage the house on. Small play only.

Confidence: Bet (1 Unit)


Race 2: WESTERN RACEPIX MAIDEN (1232m)

I’ve found our first "Fifty Percenter" and she looks ready to break the duck. Lady Coco brings a record of 13 starts for 6 seconds and 2 thirds (61% place rate). That screams consistency. Crucially, she has form on Soft tracks (4:0-3-0), so if the rain hangs around, she won’t be bothered. She hits the line hard and finds a very winnable race here.

The Danger: Lyn's Star. Another mare with decent place stats (27%). She resumes here and has placed first-up before. Watch the market late.

SelectionDangerComment
Lady CocoLyn's StarThe numbers don't lie. She finds the line and handles the wet.

Confidence: Best Bet (3 Units)


Race 3: WELLINGTON AND REEVES HANDICAP (1900m)

This is a fascinating contest. Deadly And Fast carries the grandstand (61kg), but class is permanent. He drops significantly in grade here and his record on Soft going (11:2-2-2) is superior to his rivals. He’s a genuine stayer who will grind this lot into the dust if he gets rolling early.

The Danger: Cape Doctor. A true "Fifty Percenter" (55% place rate). He gets in with a featherweight 54kg. That 7kg swing against the top weight is massive over 1900m.

SelectionDangerComment
Deadly And FastCape DoctorBacking the class horse to defy the weight on a rain-affected track.

Confidence: High (2 Units)

Comments

  • ChrisChris    5,736 posts

    Race 4: CELEBRATE BOXING DAY AT THE ARC HANDICAP (1100m)

    My original ratings pointed to De Grandhomme (60% place rate), but his Soft track stats (8:0-0-1) are a flashing red light on a Soft 5. Instead, I’m pivoting to Secret Stones. This gelding is as honest as the day is long (53% place rate) and has won twice on Soft going. He drops nicely in weight and draws to get the run of the race.

    The Danger: Reconnaissance. Lightly raced and showed plenty of ability winning a maiden recently. Could be anything, but the price might be short.

    SelectionDangerComment
    Secret StonesReconnaissancePivoting to the proven wet-tracker. Great value.

    Confidence: Medium (1.5 Units)


    Race 5: LITTLE CREATURES HANDICAP (1500m)

    This is the race of the day. We have two absolute standout "Fifty Percenters" clashing. Red Top (71% place rate) is a serious animal. He carries 63.5kg which is a concern, but his class edge is undeniable, and he loves the wet (5:2-0-0).

    However, Lova Session (59% place rate) is the giant killer here. She drops 8.5kg on Red Top and has won 4 times on Soft tracks. The weight swing is enormous. I'm sticking with Red Top for class, but Lova Session is the bet of the day if you want to play safe on an Each-Way basis.

    The Danger: Lova Session. The weight difference is the big equalizer. If Red Top feels the pinch, she will be there.

    SelectionDangerComment
    Red TopLova SessionClass vs Weight. I'm backing Class, but saving on the lightweight mare.

    Confidence: Medium (1.5 Units)

  • ChrisChris    5,736 posts

    Race 5: LITTLE CREATURES HANDICAP (1500m)

    This is the race of the day. We have two absolute standout "Fifty Percenters" clashing. Red Top (71% place rate) is a serious animal. He carries 63.5kg which is a concern, but his class edge is undeniable, and he loves the wet (5:2-0-0).

    However, Lova Session (59% place rate) is the giant killer here. She drops 8.5kg on Red Top and has won 4 times on Soft tracks. The weight swing is enormous. I'm sticking with Red Top for class, but Lova Session is the bet of the day if you want to play safe on an Each-Way basis.

    The Danger: Lova Session. The weight difference is the big equalizer. If Red Top feels the pinch, she will be there.

    SelectionDangerComment
    Red TopLova SessionClass vs Weight. I'm backing Class, but saving on the lightweight mare.

    Confidence: Medium (1.5 Units)


    Race 6: STATEWIDE HORSE TRANSPORT HANDICAP (1600m)

    A tough race. Roundabout Glory looks the best of a bad bunch. He’s been around the mark in better company and his 3rd at Albany two starts back reads well for this. The 1600m is the query, but in a race devoid of strong form, his class might get him home.

    The Danger: Mister Popcorn. Ran a blinder for 2nd last start at big odds. If he reproduces that, he’s in the finish.

    SelectionDangerComment
    Roundabout GloryMister PopcornA raffle. Small stakes only.

    Confidence: Bomb (0.5 Units)

  • ChrisChris    5,736 posts

    Race 7: TABTOUCH BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (1232m)

    We finish with a progressive type. Questioneverything has started twice for a win and a second (100% place rate). The win last start at this track was arrogant. He rises in weight but looks to have gears that the others don't possess.

    The Danger: Gaspardo. Another honest "Fifty Percenter". He rarely runs a bad race and will be hitting the line hard when others are stopping.

    SelectionDangerComment
    QuestioneverythingGaspardoOn the up. Looks a class above this field.

    Confidence: High (2 Units)

  • ChrisChris    5,736 posts

    Winning More: Summary of Best Bets

    RaceHorseStakeConfidencePrice (Est)
    R2Lady Coco3 UnitsBest Bet$2.40
    R3Deadly And Fast2 UnitsHigh$4.20
    R7Questioneverything2 UnitsHigh$2.80
    R4Secret Stones1.5 UnitsMedium$6.50
    R5Red Top1.5 UnitsMedium$3.50
    R1Sea Of Galilee1 UnitBet$3.00
    R6Roundabout Glory0.5 UnitsBomb$12.00
    Total Outlay: 11.5 Units.
  • RodentRodent    7,483 posts
    Talking thru my kick but why didn't Tash track Why Me into the race? Would have $hit in. Indicative of how I'm travelling.
  • ChrisChris    5,736 posts
    AI is travelling no better
  • RodentRodent    7,483 posts
    It cost me the early quaddy. Not happy  :((
  • loose_gooseloose_goose    2,135 posts
    Interessted in the wet comments, Albany was a Good 4, my local track spy down there siad thete had been no rain for a week , other than a bit drizzle, so not sure why originally was pur up as a Soft 5..
    Chris said:

    AI is travelling no better


  • loose_gooseloose_goose    2,135 posts
    Rodent said:

    Talking thru my kick but why didn't Tash track Why Me into the race? Would have $hit in. Indicative of how I'm travelling.

    I thought the same & went back to the replay, those two leaders were at each others throats setting a quick tempo, they were done on the corner I don't think Tash expected to have headed them on straightening. The leaders were so bad the horse that ran 4th was gone on the corner & still ran 4th

    I was interested to see why Cavill Prince lost ground going down the back from boxseat to near last, but nothing in the report.
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