Harness 2025

Chopchop43 · January 2025

JayJay said:
Getting Inbox and private emails telling me I am doing it all wrong, I should be doing this, I should be quoting the average starting price of the favourite, I should be eliminating outriders both short and long priced, I should be showing a graph with Standard deviation, the data sample is too small, should be doing it track by track, class by class, should be comparing PBD with RBD, should be quoting last years figures etc etc etc. So taking all that gratuitous advice on board, I'll leave it to the experts.

<br/ I was just asking the question out of curiosity, I mean out the end of the day I guess the best measurement of how successful the NR system is or isn't will only be known once they release turnover figures in the future

warrenrobinson · January 2025

Interesting facts, the 2.28 handicap model worked you win you take a handicap no dropbacks pretty simple, MCR failed, HWOE failed so now we have NR so from day one some industry participants aren't happy eg GP owners association, GP and people who were involved with the introduction of the models that have failed so let me give you a little advice f...off and find another hobby.

Frog · January 2025

No birdcage interviews Monday & Tuesday, is this also

a new change in 2025 ???

Chopchop43 · January 2025

warrenrobinson said:
Interesting facts, the 2.28 handicap model worked you win you take a handicap no dropbacks pretty simple, MCR failed, HWOE failed so now we have NR so from day one some industry participants aren't happy eg GP owners association, GP and people who were involved with the introduction of the models that have failed so let me give you a little advice f...off and find another hobby.

so if it worked why is it non existent now ?? Or did it only work in your opinion??? Remember we don't work on opinions we just work on facts. I think people are entitled to like or dislike what they want if, everyone was to just 'fuck off' as your high iq response suggests then we most likely wouldn't have an industry, I'll openly admit I'm not optimistic about the nr system, if it was so good why is it that well known that it's nationally hated by the majority of participants over east ?? And to that point what makes people think it's going to work over here. Or is it a case of it's just the lesser of 2 evils so support it ???

Markovina · January 2025

Ive been consistent in my view all along that handicapping systems have very little affect on Trots turnover

One thing i would possibly look at - last Sunday i think it was i was betting on a few Swan Hill Trots races , and on my computer i caught the last 200 metres of a gallops race at Sha Tin - i dont follow them or bet on them , but i saw the last 200 metres vision , it was the race Purton got hopelessly pocketed on the fave who ran 3rd

A $16 pop won the race , the 2nd horse paid $15 a place , and all dividends Vic/Super - NSW and QLD/Unitab were identical

So i looked up that race on TAB.Com , and i was staggered by the pool sizes eg 7 million in the quinella which paid over $500 on the race - so im assuming all the Aust money accross the 3 totes is in with the local HK Money and there is just one giant pool and even at 5 HK Dollars to 1 Aussie its still $1.4 mil Aust in that quinella pool

The bottom line in Aust just have 1 big Trots tote pool comprising Vic/Super - NSW and Unitab/qld - they can still have and run their own fixed odds book - but if there was just one big Trots Tote pool - and especially with quin/tri/1st 4 - those pools might hold serious money which punters love betting into and thus Trots turnover might get a bit of a jolt

meatpie · January 2025

Markovina said:
Ive been consistent in my view all along that handicapping systems have very little affect on Trots turnover

One thing i would possibly look at - last Sunday i think it was i was betting on a few Swan Hill Trots races , and on my computer i caught the last 200 metres of a gallops race at Sha Tin - i dont follow them or bet on them , but i saw the last 200 metres vision , it was the race Purton got hopelessly pocketed on the fave who ran 3rd

A $16 pop won the race , the 2nd horse paid $15 a place , and all dividends Vic/Super - NSW and QLD/Unitab were identical

So i looked up that race on TAB.Com , and i was staggered by the pool sizes eg 7 million in the quinella which paid over $500 on the race - so im assuming all the Aust money accross the 3 totes is in with the local HK Money and there is just one giant pool and even at 5 HK Dollars to 1 Aussie its still $1.4 mil Aust in that quinella pool

The bottom line in Aust just have 1 big Trots tote pool comprising Vic/Super - NSW and Unitab/qld - they can still have and run their own fixed odds book - but if there was just one big Trots Tote pool - and especially with quin/tri/1st 4 - those pools might hold serious money which punters love betting into and thus Trots turnover might get a bit of a jolt

It's called World Pool

Most of Australia's biggest thoroughbred races and pretty sure a large number of the feature Australian meetings bet into the World Pool, very prevalent at Spring Carnival.

getthechange · January 2025

Chopchop43 said:

JayJay said:
13 race meetings now run, 102 races, average winning starting price still holding way above the direct comparison fro 2024 at $6.11.

18 of the 102 races won by concession/junior drivers, opportunities escalating, 4 of the 9 runners in the featured $20,000 Albany Cup, including the winner, utilised concession claims.

Only 22 winners under $2.00 and just 4 under $1.20 with 20 winners at $10 or better.

just out of curiosity wouldn't a better indication of whether or not the nr system is working turnover wise (all be it in such a small sample size) be the average price of each favourite, rather than average price each winner, I mean all good to have an ever shortening $6.11 average winners, but I feel from a punting point of view more people will invest there hard earned on races where there isn't a favourite in the red , hard to make the comparison with the gallops but I feel the reason people invest more frequently into them is the fact your not seeing as many $1.90 or less pops , I guess we'll only know once they have released turnover figures whether or not nr is really making a difference but yes great to see the jnrs get a fair crack

Chopchop43 said:

warrenrobinson said:
Interesting facts, the 2.28 handicap model worked you win you take a handicap no dropbacks pretty simple, MCR failed, HWOE failed so now we have NR so from day one some industry participants aren't happy eg GP owners association, GP and people who were involved with the introduction of the models that have failed so let me give you a little advice f...off and find another hobby.

so if it worked why is it non existent now ?? Or did it only work in your opinion??? Remember we don't work on opinions we just work on facts. I think people are entitled to like or dislike what they want if, everyone was to just '**** off' as your high iq response suggests then we most likely wouldn't have an industry, I'll openly admit I'm not optimistic about the nr system, if it was so good why is it that well known that it's nationally hated by the majority of participants over east ?? And to that point what makes people think it's going to work over here. Or is it a case of it's just the lesser of 2 evils so support it ???

assessment system - it was changed because

2yos commenced racing at 2:38 mark and could win eight races and be on a 2:30 mark which was where 3yos maidens commenced racing

3yos could win two races and be on a 2:28 mark which was where 4yo maidens commenced racing

from memory 2yos could win 5 metro 2yo races and 3yos could win four metro 3yo races and one metro 4yo race and still be eligible for a qualifying stakes race (replaced by M0 under MC which was the fore runner to MCR)

there were a lot of short priced runners and the WATA committee wanted to introduce graded races which was rejected by the industry. BOTRA put forward the MC system which removed a lot of the "free races" which was adopted and was showing a reduction in odds on favs until vested interest infiltrated the committee and the system was undermined

Chopchop43 · January 2025

getthechange said:

Chopchop43 said:

JayJay said:
13 race meetings now run, 102 races, average winning starting price still holding way above the direct comparison fro 2024 at $6.11.

18 of the 102 races won by concession/junior drivers, opportunities escalating, 4 of the 9 runners in the featured $20,000 Albany Cup, including the winner, utilised concession claims.

Only 22 winners under $2.00 and just 4 under $1.20 with 20 winners at $10 or better.

just out of curiosity wouldn't a better indication of whether or not the nr system is working turnover wise (all be it in such a small sample size) be the average price of each favourite, rather than average price each winner, I mean all good to have an ever shortening $6.11 average winners, but I feel from a punting point of view more people will invest there hard earned on races where there isn't a favourite in the red , hard to make the comparison with the gallops but I feel the reason people invest more frequently into them is the fact your not seeing as many $1.90 or less pops , I guess we'll only know once they have released turnover figures whether or not nr is really making a difference but yes great to see the jnrs get a fair crack

Chopchop43 said:

warrenrobinson said:
Interesting facts, the 2.28 handicap model worked you win you take a handicap no dropbacks pretty simple, MCR failed, HWOE failed so now we have NR so from day one some industry participants aren't happy eg GP owners association, GP and people who were involved with the introduction of the models that have failed so let me give you a little advice f...off and find another hobby.

so if it worked why is it non existent now ?? Or did it only work in your opinion??? Remember we don't work on opinions we just work on facts. I think people are entitled to like or dislike what they want if, everyone was to just '**** off' as your high iq response suggests then we most likely wouldn't have an industry, I'll openly admit I'm not optimistic about the nr system, if it was so good why is it that well known that it's nationally hated by the majority of participants over east ?? And to that point what makes people think it's going to work over here. Or is it a case of it's just the lesser of 2 evils so support it ???
assessment system - it was changed because
2yos commenced racing at 2:38 mark and could win eight races and be on a 2:30 mark which was where 3yos maidens commenced racing
3yos could win two races and be on a 2:28 mark which was where 4yo maidens commenced racing
from memory 2yos could win 5 metro 2yo races and 3yos could win four metro 3yo races and one metro 4yo race and still be eligible for a qualifying stakes race (replaced by M0 under MC which was the fore runner to MCR)
there were a lot of short priced runners and the WATA committee wanted to introduce graded races which was rejected by the industry. BOTRA put forward the MC system which removed a lot of the "free races" which was adopted and was showing a reduction in odds on favs until vested interest infiltrated the committee and the system was undermined

sounds like it wasn't as perfect as what some people made it out to seem, end of the day there is never going to be a perfect system but you at least want the majority of participants on board with whatever system we are handed

getthechange · January 2025

as pointed out by chariots the average starting price of winners can be misleading

eg 9 favs winning at $1.20 and a roughie winning at $100 gives an average of $11.08

the sweet spot refers to the preferred starting price range of favorites which RWWA believe will maximise turnover

I have no intention of updating the attachments and agree that it is a very small sample but are posted as a matter of interest

Chopchop43 · January 2025

getthechange said:
as pointed out by chariots the average starting price of winners can be misleading
eg 9 favs winning at $1.20 and a roughie winning at $100 gives an average of $11.08

the sweet spot refers to the preferred starting price range of favorites which RWWA believe will maximise turnover

I have no intention of updating the attachments and agree that it is a very small sample but are posted as a matter of interest

that's what I was getting at before, would the average starting price of favourites be a better way to measure the success to a degree of the nr system rather than average price of the winner

TimmyBee · January 2025

Chopchop43 said:

getthechange said:

Chopchop43 said:

JayJay said:
13 race meetings now run, 102 races, average winning starting price still holding way above the direct comparison fro 2024 at $6.11.

18 of the 102 races won by concession/junior drivers, opportunities escalating, 4 of the 9 runners in the featured $20,000 Albany Cup, including the winner, utilised concession claims.

Only 22 winners under $2.00 and just 4 under $1.20 with 20 winners at $10 or better.

just out of curiosity wouldn't a better indication of whether or not the nr system is working turnover wise (all be it in such a small sample size) be the average price of each favourite, rather than average price each winner, I mean all good to have an ever shortening $6.11 average winners, but I feel from a punting point of view more people will invest there hard earned on races where there isn't a favourite in the red , hard to make the comparison with the gallops but I feel the reason people invest more frequently into them is the fact your not seeing as many $1.90 or less pops , I guess we'll only know once they have released turnover figures whether or not nr is really making a difference but yes great to see the jnrs get a fair crack

Chopchop43 said:

warrenrobinson said:
Interesting facts, the 2.28 handicap model worked you win you take a handicap no dropbacks pretty simple, MCR failed, HWOE failed so now we have NR so from day one some industry participants aren't happy eg GP owners association, GP and people who were involved with the introduction of the models that have failed so let me give you a little advice f...off and find another hobby.

so if it worked why is it non existent now ?? Or did it only work in your opinion??? Remember we don't work on opinions we just work on facts. I think people are entitled to like or dislike what they want if, everyone was to just '**** off' as your high iq response suggests then we most likely wouldn't have an industry, I'll openly admit I'm not optimistic about the nr system, if it was so good why is it that well known that it's nationally hated by the majority of participants over east ?? And to that point what makes people think it's going to work over here. Or is it a case of it's just the lesser of 2 evils so support it ???
assessment system - it was changed because
2yos commenced racing at 2:38 mark and could win eight races and be on a 2:30 mark which was where 3yos maidens commenced racing
3yos could win two races and be on a 2:28 mark which was where 4yo maidens commenced racing
from memory 2yos could win 5 metro 2yo races and 3yos could win four metro 3yo races and one metro 4yo race and still be eligible for a qualifying stakes race (replaced by M0 under MC which was the fore runner to MCR)
there were a lot of short priced runners and the WATA committee wanted to introduce graded races which was rejected by the industry. BOTRA put forward the MC system which removed a lot of the "free races" which was adopted and was showing a reduction in odds on favs until vested interest infiltrated the committee and the system was undermined

sounds like it wasn't as perfect as what some people made it out to seem, end of the day there is never going to be a perfect system but you at least want the majority of participants on board with whatever system we are handed

don’t be too harsh, the memory does start to go…

sonny · January 2025

Yes it is true that it is misleading but how many 100/1 chances win on a 10 race programme..and I agree the average s.p of the favs would be better in my opinion

Chopchop43 · January 2025

sonny said:
Yes it is true that it is misleading but how many 100/1 chances win on a 10 race programme..and I agree the average s.p of the favs would be better in my opinion

not too many that's for sure, but usually there 100/1 for a reason and most wouldn't of had a cent on them

Moonraker · January 2025

A question that has been on my mind the last few weeks....

Why at GP fridays are they they running 2 not full FFA races at $31k? obvious answer is to get race numbers up.

But wouldnt it make more sense to to make one full field and have the lower assessed horses race in other eligable races?

or alternatively have the weaker of the 2 races race for a a lower stake?

Muldoon · January 2025

Chopchop43 said:

getthechange said:
as pointed out by chariots the average starting price of winners can be misleading
eg 9 favs winning at $1.20 and a roughie winning at $100 gives an average of $11.08

the sweet spot refers to the preferred starting price range of favorites which RWWA believe will maximise turnover

I have no intention of updating the attachments and agree that it is a very small sample but are posted as a matter of interest

that's what I was getting at before, would the average starting price of favourites be a better way to measure the success to a degree of the nr system rather than average price of the winner

GP Tues 6 fav. won in 7 races Ave Fav Price $ $1.74 Ave Winner $ 1.84 High Win $3.80

Bun Mon 4 fav. won in 8 races Ave Fav Price $ 1.65 Ave Winner $2.96 High Win $6.

Alb Sat 2 Fav. won in 7 races Ave Fav Price $ 2.13 Ave Winner $ 5.08 High Win $16.

warrenrobinson · January 2025

Interesting stat, HWOE 318 Fridays no full programs, NR 5 Fridays this week full fields long way to go but encouraging.

Frog · January 2025

I remember the days you had to be a C4 to get off a float at GP on a Friday night,

this Friday great meeting with maidens going around for $20k plus prize money.

Tuesday a must stay home programme 6 races god bless the trotters and 5 horse

field and 2 7 horse fields, cancel all other options Tuesday night must watch.

2 yrs / 3 yrs / R 0 / C 0 / M 0, what a great and easy grading system.

Now 3 yrs 4 yrs, off to the USA in record numbers and we are left with full

fields at the second meeting and Pinjarra now looks like Collie / Williams

meetings.

Frog · January 2025

After Busso and Albany the GP Friday nights fields may look

like this for some time. Hasn't been many new horses from the

East or NZ lately. Sign of the time with prize money talks.

warrenrobinson · January 2025

Frog said:
I remember the days you had to be a C4 to get off a float at GP on a Friday night,
this Friday great meeting with maidens going around for $20k plus prize money.
Tuesday a must stay home programme 6 races god bless the trotters and 5 horse
field and 2 7 horse fields, cancel all other options Tuesday night must watch.
2 yrs / 3 yrs / R 0 / C 0 / M 0, what a great and easy grading system.
Now 3 yrs 4 yrs, off to the USA in record numbers and we are left with full
fields at the second meeting and Pinjarra now looks like Collie / Williams
meetings.

warrenrobinson · January 2025

I keep saying it RWWA and the WATA before it have failed our industry the figures state that, friday night GP looks good with full fields for the first time in 6plus years but as you mentioned a lot of country horses. Play a reserve football team from the country at Optus on a friday and see how many attend.

Chopchop43 · January 2025

Frog said:
After Busso and Albany the GP Friday nights fields may look
like this for some time. Hasn't been many new horses from the
East or NZ lately. Sign of the time with prize money talks.

<br/ just to expensive to get them over anymore, especially from nz, always found it rather exciting when a high priced export landed and got to racing over here

warrenrobinson · February 2025

Interesting story on RWWA re Harness new NR first month's figures certainly promising.

Frog · February 2025

It does sound promising on paper, BUT if you look at Busso

results the new NR systems have made the standing starts

much more even with more chances in every race, look at

Trotters cup Friday and Pinjarra Monday and GP Tuesday

(rare GP stand) There is value to be had in the stands with

the new system. The mobiles are mostly odds on favs with

some you wouldnt back with your worst friends money. So

down to turnover figures to tell the real story.

With Albany and Busso about to finish this could turn the

tables on what looks good. More stands are the go for average

price winners.

Betonme · February 2025

Agree somewhat on the stands but they are running 3 different stand types.
One based on NR, one based on discretionary, and the other based on how many lifetime wins.
My personal opinion is they stick to the first two.

Frog · February 2025

Plus more of them , at least one a meeting.

GP when on top of its game had 2 , country

front 2,100 mts and metro front 2,500mts,

maybe an easy way to increase turnover.

Frog · February 2025

Years ago the best 3 races stands.

Thanks to A H and F K now mobiles.

Freo cup, Hunter cup and Kilmore cups.

Now days have odds on pops leading all

the way mobiles.

Plus Inters and Miracle mile.

Chopchop43 · February 2025

1 months figures isn't enough of a sample size either side of the argument you may sit on , let's see turnover figures in a year's time before we pass judgement

warrenrobinson · February 2025

Surely we understand the meaning of update.

Chopchop43 · February 2025

Well just like rwwa using statistics and the media to pump up the HWOE system updates without a substantial amount of data are really meaningless at this point of time

warrenrobinson · February 2025

HWOE updates?

G'day Punter!

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