G'day Punter!

Sign In Register

In this Discussion

Who's Online

0 Members & 10 Non Members

Golf Betting

Sport

Comments

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Burns was hanging tough too H? Could choke like a few near the top but thoughts?
    JT was going good early but dumped 2 or was it 3 shots and lost his momentum which could be costly, he is good enough to win it and is best placed out of the top tier guys but its close to a lottery there are so many guys at -4 or better.
    Cheering for Smith he has to be a chance, the Cinderella story guy(channelling Bill Murray rn)probably flops Imo.

    My spec will be some sort of investment before the off tonite on Burns and maybe a lobster on Reed who is 5 back but was on song yesterday arvo.
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    Ive had small investmets to cover my position

    Cam Smith $8.50
    Berger $13
    Molinari $34
    Kisner $61

    5 more units out for 20.8 back
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    Thunderstruck said:

    Burns was hanging tough too H? Could choke like a few near the top but thoughts?
    JT was going good early but dumped 2 or was it 3 shots and lost his momentum which could be costly, he is good enough to win it and is best placed out of the top tier guys but its close to a lottery there are so many guys at -4 or better.
    Cheering for Smith he has to be a chance, the Cinderella story guy(channelling Bill Murray rn)probably flops Imo.

    My spec will be some sort of investment before the off tonite on Burns and maybe a lobster on Reed who is 5 back but was on song yesterday arvo.

    Burns definately a good show, I couldnt back them all and decided Cam Smith was better to back than burns at the prices. Wouldnt suprise if Rahm just went past them!

    Thunderstruck likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    edited March 2022
    H-BOMBER said:

    Thunderstruck said:

    Burns was hanging tough too H? Could choke like a few near the top but thoughts?
    JT was going good early but dumped 2 or was it 3 shots and lost his momentum which could be costly, he is good enough to win it and is best placed out of the top tier guys but its close to a lottery there are so many guys at -4 or better.
    Cheering for Smith he has to be a chance, the Cinderella story guy(channelling Bill Murray rn)probably flops Imo.

    My spec will be some sort of investment before the off tonite on Burns and maybe a lobster on Reed who is 5 back but was on song yesterday arvo.

    Burns definately a good show, I couldnt back them all and decided Cam Smith was better to back than burns at the prices. Wouldnt suprise if Rahm just went past them!



    Yeh he is due I suppose, his putting is a big problem he religiously leaves shots out there.Early on in round 3 he had a poor 3 putt bogey, an eagle putt from close missed by a whisker and the very next hole a very makeable birdie is missed.Could have been 3 under for the round after 3 or 4 holes instead goes even par.

    Burns is skinny I see at 8/8.50 that is not much value as he was erratic but scrambled well..sacking that idea lol we know what happens now(leader @ the end of Round 3 I predict as a chance $7)

    Smith is a bit better price on Sportsbet @$10 plus i will still have a spec on Reed at the crazy $101 and Henley @$67, both very rough hopes at -4 currently.
    Good luck mate.

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    edited March 2022
    Or...Rahm could just implode..and did with a quintuple bogey 9 on the 4th hole...and that hole is playing easy as provided your in the fairway.

    Smithy off to a flyer 3 under after 3 holes and leads by a shot!
    +1 -1
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    4 straight birdies and now leads by 2 c'mon champ! B-)
    +1 -1
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Cam Smith what a rollercoaster, 2 clear by halfway into the back nine(after 3 straight bogeys 7,8,9 brought him back to equal leader)and then starts duck hooking the driver..and on 16 a birdie hole where he could arguably seal the deal still 2 up shanks one hard left ffs.
    Casey breathing down his neck, shits about to get real.

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    edited March 2022
    Cam Smith you are outstanding!!
    Shoots 66 with 10 birdies but 4 bogeys, 13 one putts two great clutch efforts for par.JUST 10 putts on the back 9 what an amazing putter.
    Absolutely outstanding work even though it got rocky late in the back nine..too tired rn to summarise the dramas lol

    A bloody LEGEND you are Smithy :x =D>

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • TheSwooperTheSwooper    1,718 posts
    Well done you two. Certainly get viewing value for your investments!
    +1 -1
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Only 3 weeks til the masters Cam, ease up on the partying this time lol
    Touching scenes, he hadnt seen his parents for 2 and 1/2 years how special is that.

    Honorable mention to the unknown Lahiri he hung tough all day and had a birdie chip to tie it up on 18..
    Think he will be happy with his $2.18 mill cheque.
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    Smithy!

    @Thunderstruck riding every shot and sweating, you love to see it

    Thunderstruck likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    What a great last round. I will admit, i didnt watch it live, these late nights, early mornings are killing me, ageing me rapidly :))

    But I did watch the last 4 holes down the stretch on replay and it just proves the point of how many things have to go right for a winner to win. Smith finished off his thrid round not too badly and was only 2 off the pace and yet it still took a 66 to win by 1 shot! And his putter was on fire and his short game was as elite as ever. And as good as his shot on 17 was, it was "unintentional". Great for Smith, he has proven that when the putter gets hot he wins or finishes top 2/3. He actually finsihed near last in Off the Tee stats!! Shows how dominant his short game really is

    What about Lahiri toughing it out for outright second. The bloke stuck fat all day and literally came down to the second last shot of the day. He was gutted, but in the light of day tomorrow will look back at ann outright second, 2.18 million and a spot at the Masters as a win for the 352 OWG ranked player in the world. There has to be a win somewhere for him soon, maybe one of the lesser tournamnets such as Valspar (if he is playing this week) or the John Deere. But thats probably a bit unfair as his game this week would put him in contention at any of the majors. 

    Others bits from the week

    Write off any form lines through late/early starters from Thrusday and Friday. Blokes like Morikawa, Xander, Brooks etc all had it the toughest and i wouldnt read anythiung into their missed cuts

    Go and watch the Hovland /Berger/Dahmen group replay of hole 16, quite the disagreement about where the ball crossed into the water between the 3. Berger is starting to profile like Patrick Reed in terms of "bending the rules" and "complaining"

    The Norwegain commentary of Hovlands hole in one is fantastic.

    DJ closed with a course record equally 63 with a hole out eagle on the 9th. When conditions were good and the pressure off, he has found his game again. Black booker with the Match play and the Masters in a few weeks

    Henley started his 4th round by going Double bogey on the first and then albatross on the second hole. Not bad haha

    Jon Rahm now has solidified his position as a non winner and wont carry my money BEFORE any tournament for the foreseeable future. He had a 9 on a par 4. Number 1 blokes in the world, in form, do not do this. 


    The washup punting wise was a loss, but was softened by the hedge mid 3rd round to cover my initial outrights. Originally was going to go hard to cover the whole tournament but didnt have the stones to do it such was the volatility of the week.

    Players Outlay 40 units

    Returned 30.52 units (Smith win, Berger and Hovland top 20s)

    Nett -9.48 units

    LPGA outlay 5 units, 0 returned, nett -5


    Overall this year

    Start of the week, -71.5 units (with 45 units counted here in play)

    returned 30.52

    NETT year = -40.98 units

    On to Valspar in 2 days !

    Thunderstruck likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    edited March 2022
    Yeh man I'm stuffed lol couldn't find the words for some of that summary you made too effing tired.
    The shot on 17 was stunning albeit jaggy and then his chip out of trouble on 18 that went in the water(after another rough tee shot)I couldn't believe it, he did so well to only bogey.The mentally strong Lahiri then birdies 17(what a clutch putt)and it's 1 the diff.Great watching so happy for Smithy and hats off to Lahiri he did not falter at all.

    As Paul Casey said later the best man won today.
    Cam putted like a legend, was great with the irons short or long yet drove at times like a b grader lol.
    I am liking this join in at the Round 3 point and betting the last couple of weeks!
    +1 -1
  • detonatordetonator    4,397 posts
    Never back the leader after 54 holes. Would love to know the stats on how many falter in the last round.
    Do as I say not as I do. Haha
    @-)
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    The tour average is around 43% for 54 hole leaders to go on and win the tournament. These stats date back to 2006. This is all data on the PGA tour

    Now compare this to Tiger

    Tiger is 44 out of 46 when leading at the 54 hole mark (96%)

    He is also 25/25 when leading by at least 3 shots after 54 holes

    This week, of the last 28 X 54 hole leaders at the PGA championship, Lahiri is only the second man in history to shoot in the 60s on his final round. The average is over 74 shots.




    Compare then to Berger a few weeks back. He held a 5 shot lead after 54 holes and the record was 16/17 went on to win after leading by 5+ shots.

    Stats courtesy of @justinraygolf

    detonator likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Waiting for your summary H for the Valspar tournament(no pressure), in the meantime i was having a little sticky at the outright market and I have my eye on a speculator bet.
    Gary Woodland @$51.
    Was right amongst it when Scheffler won 10 days ago, arguably could have won but for bombing out on 17 with a double bogey, he then missed the cut at the Players may have got the wrong rub of the conditions though not sure on that.
    Bonus is he will be fresher than the top guys and whilst not a top 20 golfer I think he may give a sight?
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    Will share my PGA and Europe thoughts in greater depth tomorrow

    Early.days though in Europe


    Europe outright ($9.46)
    Langasque
    Rosner
    Lawrence
    Luiten
    Du Plessis

    Top 20
    Armitage
    Bekker
    Langasque
    Fisher
    Lawrence

    FRL all these blokes ($6.17)


    PGA

    No genius here
    *Outright*
    Thomas
    Johnson
    Viktor
    Morikawa
    Hatton

    *Top20*
    Lowry
    Hatton
    Oosthuizen
    Kokrak
    Bubba
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    edited March 2022
    The field for Valspar has stood up somewhat after last weeks marathon at the Players. I think players and punters alike all had gof fatiguie after last week and its taken a few days to get motivated back into it

    Ive posted players above, no genius this week as I really feel that Valspar will be dominated by the top bunch of players

    If you are willing to forgive and forget last week, I think Morikawa and DJ probably rank my best of the 5 mentioned for outrights, however, it may be worth aiting a round of two before diving in

    The play might be the top 20s. The 6 i like and as avove and follows

    Lowry
    Hatton
    Oosthuizen
    Kokrak
    Bubba
    Kisner
    Kizzire

    You can back them all and eek a small profit if 2 out of the 6 finish top 20, as follows

    Top 20 Finish
    Player Odds Amount Spend Return
    Lowry 2 3.13 6.26
    Hatton 1.8 3.48 6.26
    Oosthuizen1.8 3.48 6.26
    Bubba 2.75 2.28 6.26
    Kokrak 2.38 2.63 6.26
    Kisner 3.25 1.93 6.26
    Kizzire 4.25 1.47 6.26
    Total 15 units
    Result Units back Profit/Loss
    1 x top 20 6.26 -8.74
    2 x top 20 12.53 -2.47
    3 x top 20 18.79 3.79
    4 x top 20 25.05 10.05
    5 x top 20 31.32 16.32
    6 x top 20 37.58 22.58
    7 x top 20 43.84 28.84

    Alternatively, go for the quick return and inflated odds on the FRL for all players mentioned at around $3.02, as follows

    Player Odds Spend  Result
    Thomas 19 1.59 30.20
    Johnson 29 1.04 30.20
    Viktor 19 1.59 30.20
    Morikawa 26 1.16 30.20
    Hatton 34 0.89 30.20
    Lowry 34 0.89 30.20
    Oosthuizen 34 0.89 30.20
    Bubba 56 0.54 30.20
    Kisner 67 0.45 30.20
    Kizzire 81 0.37 30.20
    Kokrak 51 0.59 30.20
    Total 10.00 30.20

    So for 25 units total, you could get back maximum 74.04 units if all 7 run top 20 and you nail the FRL. Worst case scenario is of course none in the top 20 and no FRL, so 0 units back. 

    If I had to narrow it down, Morikawa, Hovland and DJ would be my main outrights and for the top 20, really like the looks of Bubba, Kokrak Kisner and Kizzire at the odds available.
    Good Luck
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    This week Ive spent 

    5 units outright on Hovland, Morikawa and DJ at $4.02, return 20.1 units

    5 units top 20 on Bubba, Kokrak, Kisner and Kizzire, withn returns of 0, 3.76, 7.53, 11.3 and 15 units depending on outcomes

    spent 5 units on FRL bets on all above mentioned at $4.77, retrun 23.86 units

    Good luck
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    James Hart Du Preez, $1001 to win in South Africa, opens his forst DP World tour event with a 63 and the first round lead, where he was also $1001 to lead. 

    That 63 included 2 bogeys on the last 2 holes of the day and he was on track for a 59 with 2 holes to play.

    He is by far the longest hitter to ever be on the DP World tour. I doubnt it will last BUT he is -2 through 5 holes today

    My blokes pretty much faired well on day 1. My best at -7 was Langasque and Hennie Du Plessis shot -6. du Plessis is 2 under through 2 holes early today. Joost Luiten also only 4 back with a good start today, he is now at -6
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    Over at Valspar, a very crowded leaderboard with 4 players on -7. My best was DJ on -4 for the day. Morikawa 1 back and Hovland a further 1 back at -2

    The scoring is low so there may be a cut in the realms of -4! Very different to last week

    I took Thomas out of my lineup and he striped it on the back 9 for a -5 start. Could be very costly
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    James Hart Du Preez, $1001 to win in South Africa, opens his forst DP World tour event with a 63 and the first round lead, where he was also $1001 to lead. 


    That 63 included 2 bogeys on the last 2 holes of the day and he was on track for a 59 with 2 holes to play.

    He is by far the longest hitter to ever be on the DP World tour. I doubnt it will last BUT he is -2 through 5 holes today

    My blokes pretty much faired well on day 1. My best at -7 was Langasque and Hennie Du Plessis shot -6. du Plessis is 2 under through 2 holes early today. Joost Luiten also only 4 back with a good start today, he is now at -6



    Di Preez shoots 66 to lead by 5 shots, from a host on -10, including my blokes Luiten and Bekker
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    Burmester now on a 59 watch after going to -8 through 11 holes. He has just eagled 10 AND 11
    +1 -1
  • detonatordetonator    4,397 posts
    Back 2nd 3rd and 4th going into the final round in the PGA and collect the choccies.

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Yep I've pencilled in the leader to ch chh CHOKE :D

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    Norris faultering in Sth Africa while Langasque charging. Lead only 2 now, was 7 at the start of the day [-O<
    +1 -1
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Thomas mooting it @ +1 after 12 and 4 back(yep, i backed the spud and today he is doing nothing all day nor on the dominant for him back 9 so far)
    Meanwhile Burns leads by 2 at -18 and barring a choke he wins it looks likely.
    Riley dumped with a triple at 5 but has clawed 1 shot back so is half a chance but Burns is looking good atm.
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    @Thunderstruck favorite son Sam Burns wins back to back Valspar championships, after holding off PGA tour rookie Davis Riley in a 2nd hole playoff, draining a 30+ foot birdie to kill off any chance Riley had to win. It is his third win in 12 months on the tour and is quickly establishing himself at an elite player, now ranked 10 in the world. He knocks Dustin Johnson out of the top 10 which is the first time DJ is out of the top 10 in 7 years! The new breed of young modern golfer are starting to take the golf world from the likes of DJ, Spieth, Thomas etc etc and I'm here for it.

    My tournament netted a zero. Non of my 3 were ever in the hunt for outright and unfortunately Kizzire and Kisner could score low enough on the last day to keep the Top 20 alive. Back to the drawing board.

    The drawing board contains two tournaments this week, one starting Wednesday and the other starting Thursday. Wednesday is the start of the WGC Dell Matchplay, which you either love or hate. Last year won by Horshal. Also we have the Corales Puntacana Championship in the Dominican Republic, won last year by Joel Damen, who was last seen green side with beer in hand congratulating Sam Burns winning Valspar.

    Fields and brackets for the match play out soon.

    Thunderstruck, detonator likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    Norris faultering in Sth Africa while Langasque charging. Lead only 2 now, was 7 at the start of the day [-O<




    Norris steadied on the back 9 while the others fell away to win the Steyn Championship. My blokes were on contention bit couldn't get any closer than 2 shots from the leader at any stage.

    No collects on the outrights with Langasque, Bekker, Lawrence all saluting top 20, while Fisher missed the cut and Armitage finished well back out of top 20.

    7.6 units returned is a loss of 7.4 units on the tournament
    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    Overall started the week -40.8 units

    This week 30 out for 7.6 returned = -22.4

    Nett position -63.2 units :(|)
    +1 -1
Sign In or Register to comment.