New Handicapping System for the Trots

JayJay · March 2021

"Lots of horses coming here from east still, wonder why"

Roman Aviator is the 61st horse to leave WA for the east in the last 12 months.

westerncat · March 2021

JayJay said:
"Lots of horses coming here from east still, wonder why"

Roman Aviator is the 61st horse to leave WA for the east in the last 12 months.

I would say there's a 0% chance 61 horses have left WA to race interstate within the last 12 months....

westerncat · March 2021

Just out of interest, did you get a count on how many horses have come from NZ and East to WA in the last 12 months?

Or only check what horses left? Should every other state and country sell horses to race elsewhere, except WA? should every stable keep every horse racing until they're 14, and not get any new horses coming through? or should they just keep adding horses and not move any on?

Did you check on when a horse is sold to the east, did that trainer replace it? within the next 12 months?

Chopchop43 · March 2021

westerncat said:
Just out of interest, did you get a count on how many horses have come from NZ and East to WA in the last 12 months?
Or only check what horses left? Should every other state and country sell horses to race elsewhere, except WA? should every stable keep every horse racing until they're 14, and not get any new horses coming through? or should they just keep adding horses and not move any on?
Did you check on when a horse is sold to the east, did that trainer replace it? within the next 12 months?

I dare say if you have been paying any attention to the terrible field sizes we've had here over the past 6 months at least you'd see that we are losing more horse to the east/usa, than we are bringing in, keep an eye on the racing over in nsw and you'd see jayjay would be fairly spot on with he's numbers, the Jurd stable over there would be made up with a majority of ex wa pacers at the moment

JayJay · March 2021

The numbers are an inconvenient truth, in fact add on Taroona Bromac as number 62.

I would expect, and hope, that as in many previous decades, the nett flow of horses into WA (from E/S or NZ) would far exceed the flow out of the state. With a serious and worsening decline in foaling numbers, it is the only way WA can put fields together. Otherwise, there would be a very contracted racing product.

One of the KPI's of the new model was to improve the longevity of a horses career and capacity to earn. With the likes of very decent horses such as Taroona Bromac, Jack William, Roman Aviator and many others, and the lower ability cohort as well, owners have clearly indicated that the KPI is not being met.

With the duality of handicapping systems, opportunities for high HWOE horses with low NR's heading east far exceed the reverse flow of low HWOE/high NR horses heading west. What is I think more worrying is the recent trend of horses from WA with pretty high NR's heading east.

I see the dual systems in place and the lack of uniformity across Australia as the issue. We nor the East will ever go back to MCR, the East will never adopt HWOE and it seems we will never adopt NR. A classic mexican stand off.

westerncat · March 2021

Are you sure the number of 62, isn’t including horses sold to the USA? I highly doubt that 62 have left WA to go race interstate
I’d also like to know where to find this exact data, of horses that left the state WITHIN the last 12 months
To race race somewhere else inside Australia.

But I still find it irrelevant, unless you can give all the info, as in the numbers coming in.. to get a true picture. Can’t expect to keep every horse and buy new ones too!! And as you’ll notice, a lot of the horses leaving aren’t offered for sale in WA.

westerncat · March 2021

Chopchop43 said:

westerncat said:
Just out of interest, did you get a count on how many horses have come from NZ and East to WA in the last 12 months?
Or only check what horses left? Should every other state and country sell horses to race elsewhere, except WA? should every stable keep every horse racing until they're 14, and not get any new horses coming through? or should they just keep adding horses and not move any on?
Did you check on when a horse is sold to the east, did that trainer replace it? within the next 12 months?

I dare say if you have been paying any attention to the terrible field sizes we've had here over the past 6 months at least you'd see that we are losing more horse to the east/usa, than we are bringing in, keep an eye on the racing over in nsw and you'd see jayjay would be fairly spot on with he's numbers, the Jurd stable over there would be made up with a majority of ex wa pacers at the moment

Im not stating this as a fact, even with my exaggerated "0% chance" I just don't believe there is any chance 62 horses left WA to go and race interstate within the last year.... 62 between interstate and the USA... Maybe. probably stretched to 14-15 months too.

Its still not a total picture, if there's 100 horses coming in, where are the horse going to go? just keep accumulating?

without a market to sell on to, horse values drop, and people are less likely to invest...

Smaller field sizes at times aren't unusual for WA, over the years... and with double meetings, meetings on Sundays etc etc. that will continue to happen, as we've never had a big enough horse population to support 5 and 6 meetings a week, plus the addition of races at these meetings

westerncat · March 2021

http://www.harness.org.au/hra/annual/public/stats/horses-cleared-to-usa-eu.pdf

Strange that there's such an uptick in horses leaving to the USA from VIC, QLD and NSW over the last couple years, guess they're just fleeing the NR system, and its not because the higher demand and inflated money they've been offered from the USA

JayJay · March 2021

Manually collated...started with Illusionation (first start in SA on 12/4/20), Rousey (4/6/20) etc etc...I have 62 horses on the list ......not going to go through the whole list but last 20 are Taroona, Roman, Camilla, Jack William, Kamendable Joe, Kamendable Feeling, Master Caribbean, Start up, Lucinda Jamar, Faiselle, Art Tutor, Fair Le Fete, Dibaba, Our Big Slow, Modern Flicks, Get Ready To Rock, Happy As, Join The Queue, Don't Change, Captain Kirk.....etc etc. You can doubt as highly as you like but that's your issue.

Not as confident on USA exports, HRA data shows about 33 from the 2019/20 season but you would know that number better than me.

Small race fields at GP are rare at this time of the year, end of winter, yes, they do occur, extra races ("the 9th race") as per the Tuesday Prime meeting at GP, funded by a stakes cut, rarely happen. Neither Bunbury or Kellerberrin this weekend have 8 races.

westerncat · March 2021

Without knowing all the data, as in imports to WA, trainers replacing horses etc etc (and by the ones you just listed, most those trainers seem to replace horses) its impossible to determine that it has anything to do with out system overall.

The quality of horses here have improved, making them viable to other markets, what happens once they win their couple races over east? (as people here seem to race them 3 times a week and probably get their NR down quicker than any other state) they'll be back in the same boat not earning, not every horse can win every week!!

put on more NWL5 classes here, if horses are getting on their marks too quick, and need cheaper spots to race, I still don't think it will change the fact that horses will move around.

or we could stop all the good horses coming in from NZ, stop any good horse coming in from east, and then no one would want any of our horses that reach their mark, easy fix

AbbysAce · March 2021

The HWOE system has created 2 things.

Horses that cant win in WA but cos there NR drops back are off to the East where they race lower class horses and are competitive.

Horses that can win in WA get to many win $ so they hit there mark quicker so they are sold to America.

Probably not worded 100% correctly but I think people will get the point.

westerncat · March 2021

AbbysAce said:
The HWOE system has created 2 things.

Horses that cant win in WA but cos there NR drops back are off to the East where they race lower class horses and are competitive.

Horses that can win in WA get to many win $ so they hit there mark quicker so they are sold to America.

Probably not worded 100% correctly but I think people will get the point.

The export of horses by % from WA to the USA, in relation to other states is way down over the last two seasons...

Average horses now win 5-10 metro races in WA, with the HWOE being up to 100k -115k with a claim

and the drop back races, Condition race - NW25k - NW20k.

The market has just been strong to the USA, people are allowed to take a profit

Gilgamesh · March 2021

Westerncat you seem to be missing the issue that we don’t breed anywhere near enough horses here in the west to meet the number we need for our field sizes/meetings so we need to be importing far more than we are exporting.

westerncat · March 2021

Gilgamesh said:
Westerncat you seem to be missing the issue that we don’t breed anywhere near enough horses here in the west to meet the number we need for our field sizes/meetings so we need to be importing far more than we are exporting.

Im not missing any issue, no data has been provided to me on imports vs exports year over year.. and I'm not denying we need more horses/trainers to fill 5 meetings + a week, I'm disputing the reasons behind it.

The small time trainers don't want to race the top few stables that import hundreds of NZ horses at 100K + landed, with their homebreds, that continual stream of low assed, high class horse coming through deters people, add to that, the same stables team driving every race (and if not to the level of "team driving", at bare minimum collusion) it turns people away.

regardless of which system we have, some horses will suit one or the other better at any given time, and with the % of horses being sold to the USA having risen higher over the last couple season in other states vs WA, that should just show people its a demand driven sales boom, which has slowed in recent months, due to the downturn in the USA economy, and the issue of racetrack casinos not being allowed to run at capacity with covid, thus having a negative impact on stake money....and that will likely come to a complete stop once the USA tracks lose their slot money in the coming years.

focusing on horses that are being sold at over their true value, isn't fixing anything, and as I've said, a mute point if the trainers are selling those horses to replace them with more suitable horses.

Chopchop43 · March 2021

westerncat said:

Chopchop43 said:

westerncat said:
Just out of interest, did you get a count on how many horses have come from NZ and East to WA in the last 12 months?
Or only check what horses left? Should every other state and country sell horses to race elsewhere, except WA? should every stable keep every horse racing until they're 14, and not get any new horses coming through? or should they just keep adding horses and not move any on?
Did you check on when a horse is sold to the east, did that trainer replace it? within the next 12 months?

I dare say if you have been paying any attention to the terrible field sizes we've had here over the past 6 months at least you'd see that we are losing more horse to the east/usa, than we are bringing in, keep an eye on the racing over in nsw and you'd see jayjay would be fairly spot on with he's numbers, the Jurd stable over there would be made up with a majority of ex wa pacers at the moment
Im not stating this as a fact, even with my exaggerated "0% chance" I just don't believe there is any chance 62 horses left WA to go and race interstate within the last year.... 62 between interstate and the USA... Maybe. probably stretched to 14-15 months too.

Its still not a total picture, if there's 100 horses coming in, where are the horse going to go? just keep accumulating?
without a market to sell on to, horse values drop, and people are less likely to invest...

Smaller field sizes at times aren't unusual for WA, over the years... and with double meetings, meetings on Sundays etc etc. that will continue to happen, as we've never had a big enough horse population to support 5 and 6 meetings a week, plus the addition of races at these meetings

only months ago we seen a whole meeting fall over due to lack of nominations, first time I can recall this happening, as a trainer the amount of notifications I receive in regards to extended noms is at a rate I've never seen before, the number of 6 horses fields going around on a regular basis is becoming ridiculous, I don't think this is due to being " that time of year" we plain and simply don't have to pool of horses we once had to accommodate the amount of meetings we are running. Is it a coincidence that since this new system has come into play that these issues have now become a reality of this once strong industry we had over here?

westerncat · March 2021

Forrest for the trees.

the underlying issues have been there for ages, the system is an easy excuse.

Ive said all that's worth saying, and could care less what system they use, won't solve anything, and there will be the same amount of people still complaining about the wrong things..

I actually hope the change it, just so everyone can say "it was changed too late" when there is zero positive change in horse population after its changed..

Its good that people care and want to make things better, but the voices that are generally listened to, are the wrong ones.

Gloucester Park being run into the ground, anyone with some experience in entertainment/bars/nightlife, would make that place a Friday night entertainment venue, free entry - $2 happy hour beers, cheap appetisers/snack food at happy hour, a decent name brand restaurant, decent live band/DJ, good advertising etc etc. wouldn't be hard to get the place packed with that location.. and the horse racing is an add on, once people start showing up and drinking a few beers after work there, they stay all night and have a bet, plus drink and eat more after happy hour when its full price...

that gets people aware of the racing, and then they'll see it on TV and have a bet, when they aren't at the venue.

Just simple things over all in the industry, but no one wants to do anything for long term growth, they'd rather make Changes that make the books look passable, by parking cars and switching meetings to other tracks.

maybeso · March 2021

According to RWWA there have been 70 horses exported to the Eastern States in the past 12 months. There have been 91 horses imported into WA in the same time, from all states and NZ. There have been 25 horses exported to the USA.

Your numbers are out a tad, Jay Jay.

maybeso · March 2021

Whilst I am posting ... TABWA turnover on the trots for the previous 12 months is up approx 43%. Unfortunately, or fortunately, whichever way you want to look at it, the other two codes have experienced similar growth.

JayJay · March 2021

So a nett loss of 4 horses, when it very much needs to be a substantial plus figure to maintain a racing population.

westerncat · March 2021

GP - Friday

Bunbury - Saturday

Central - Sunday

Pinj - Monday

GP - Tuesday

Wagin - Thurs

Surely common sense could have been used months back, and some of these meetings should have been scrapped... way too many meetings over the last couple seasons

freodockers · March 2021

Horses are also retired are they not ???

AbbysAce · March 2021

maybeso said:
Have a look at race 10 at Ouyen last Sunday, ex WA horses run the trifecta, would these horse be leaving the state if we had a NR system?

maybeso said:

curmudgeon · March 2021

The horses going to the US and those arriving from NZ rarely intersect with the type of horse going east on the racetrack.

Move them on ....what a nice euphemism.

VillageKid · March 2021

WC I agree with your comments on GP.

If only we had some visionary execs on board who had the idea/plan for the track and surrounds into an racing/entertainment precinct to rival the Crown across the river!

We already have the location which is step 1!

AbbysAce · March 2021

“EPONA” initiative – a Western Australia Mares Credit Scheme

Has anyone thought about the consequences of the filly and mares leaving to the east with breeding credits?

This is the flow on effect.

The mares will go to a stallion in the east.

There yearlings will go thru the sales ring in the east.

They will be broken in and trained in the east.

They will race in the east.

Markovina · March 2021

maybeso said:
According to RWWA there have been 70 horses exported to the Eastern States in the past 12 months. There have been 91 horses imported into WA in the same time, from all states and NZ. There have been 25 horses exported to the USA.

Your numbers are out a tad, Jay Jay.

Not being rude - but i think your being misleading

The NZ imports ( re this discussion ) are 1000% irrelevant

What is relevant is - of those 91 horses imported - how many are from the Eastern States - you say 70 horses have been exported to the E/States - then give us the number imported from the E/States then we are comparing Apples with Apples

westerncat · March 2021

AbbysAce said:
“EPONA” initiative – a Western Australia Mares Credit Scheme

Has anyone thought about the consequences of the filly and mares leaving to the east with breeding credits?

This is the flow on effect.

The mares will go to a stallion in the east.
There yearlings will go thru the sales ring in the east.
They will be broken in and trained in the east.
They will race in the east.

Breeding credits wouldn't be valid in the east, would need to be bred in WA from my understanding

JayJay · March 2021

Mares (that I know of from my inaccurate and apparently conservative list):

Rousey, Salome Miss, Tajie Baby, Semi Ramide, Dracarys,Soho Major Player, The Glass Ceiling, Rockstar Diva, Georgie Mae, Nightwatch Star, Lady Lani, Get Ready To Rock, Modern Flicks, Fair La Fete, Faiselle, Lucinda Jamar, Camilla, Taroona Bromac

AbbysAce · March 2021

westerncat said:

AbbysAce said:
“EPONA” initiative – a Western Australia Mares Credit Scheme

Has anyone thought about the consequences of the filly and mares leaving to the east with breeding credits?

This is the flow on effect.

The mares will go to a stallion in the east.
There yearlings will go thru the sales ring in the east.
They will be broken in and trained in the east.
They will race in the east.
Breeding credits wouldn't be valid in the east, would need to be bred in WA from my understanding

Yes correct, but there is the same scheme in NSW and Vic.

maybeso · March 2021

Markovina said:

maybeso said:
According to RWWA there have been 70 horses exported to the Eastern States in the past 12 months. There have been 91 horses imported into WA in the same time, from all states and NZ. There have been 25 horses exported to the USA.

Your numbers are out a tad, Jay Jay.
Not being rude - but i think your being misleading

The NZ imports ( re this discussion ) are 1000% irrelevant

What is relevant is - of those 91 horses imported - how many are from the Eastern States - you say 70 horses have been exported to the E/States - then give us the number imported from the E/States then we are comparing Apples with Apples

I have no idea of the breakdown. A question was asked, and an answer was given. If you want to know the breakdown you could talk to RWWA and ask for it, I'd have thought.

If RWWA has these stats on hand without having to look them up, I think it would be pretty safe to assume that RWWA is aware the horse population drain is of concern.

What they plan to do to deal with the situation is anyone's guess.

G'day Punter!

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