In this Discussion
- DamienWyer October 2019
- Elitist October 2019
- H-BOMBER October 2019
- hash October 2019
- LuckyLongshots October 2019
- paraletic October 2019
- Ridersonthestorm33 October 2019
- Rodent October 2019
- sonny October 2019
- TheDiva October 2019
- Thewogboys October 2019
Who's Online
0 Members & 27 Non Members
Above benchmark?
West Australian Racing
Rodent
7,446 posts
Comments
Very much a buzz word. if u watch racing.com the buzz word there is “syndicates” are coming for this horse...
H-BOMBER likes this post.
H-BOMBER likes this post.
So the way I see it is that for a 60+ race for instance it should be run a certain way based on years of race data. This is the created bench mark for a 60+ race, which for all intents and purposes is 0 lengths. It looks as though it is broken up into 200m splits.
Then the race is run and won on the day. Data such as track condition, wind etc are taken into account, somehow. Then, the numbers are crunched for the leader and the winner of the race to give comparitive splits and hence comparisons to the bench mark figure. So the more negative the number, the quicker the split is and therefore this is "x lengths above benchmark". Vice versa if positive.
What does it actually tell you though? Let's take Jericho Missile as an example.
Puntingform give you the last 800m in 200m splits I'm seconds. To me this means nothing but when all is inputted to the computer it will give you 200m split times for each 200 from the the 800. It also gives you To6 ( to the 600 split)
To6 = 12.39
8-6 = 11.00
6-4 = 11.40
4-2 = 11.28
2-F = 11.40
Again, these times mean SFA if you don't have a bench mark to assess them against. As the computer program does, it says the following, which is in the benchmark column in lengths. This is for Jericho Missile
To6 = 6.4
L6 = -8.7
Therefore the finish benchmark value for Jericho Missile is -2.3 lengths. So he WENT VERY SLOW (6.4 lengths slower than benchmark) to the 600m mark and then WENT VERY FAST last 600m (8.9 lengths faster than benchmark).
The race itself measured as follows
To6 = 0.4
L6 = -2.7
So the race benchmark value is of course the same, -2.3 lengths. But the To6 value is important.
It says that To the 600m mark, the race pace itself was run fairly close to what it should have, based on previous data etc. It also says that Jericho Missile was well off them, to the tune of 6 lengths.
Then, the race pace for the last 600m was -2.7 lengths, so quite quick. Hence why Jericho Missile had to run -8.7 lengths better than bench mark to win from a 6 length deficit at the 600m.
So does this mean anything?
Maybe.
Watching the replay you can see this quite clearly. What does it say going forward?
1400-1600 m shouldn't be a problem for Jericho Missile providing the race is run at near bench mark for the first 600m so he can unleash his powerful last 600m burst. If the race is run slow to the 600m then he's on trouble. Plus he's never gone 1200m+.
To me, if I've interpreted correctly, this is a whole lot of data to explain what you see on a reply, specific to the winner against the race. Not sure if I'll jump into it.
TheDiva, Thewogboys likes this post.
Replays, replays, replays - that's all you need - Little Fish three and four wide the entire race in a Hannans behind a Railway Stakes contender - 12/1 next start in an average field. Megazone fair dinkum poleaxed at Geraldton carrying 62kgs, they normally don't recover from checks like that in the run, narrowly went down, 20/1 winner next start.
There's that many variables with times, the only time that matters is if you're in gaol.
H-BOMBER, MinesACorona, Flanders, Thewogboys likes this post.
Chris Nelson (thoroughbred industry Form Analyst and Media Commentator)
H-BOMBER likes this post.