What did you buy at the sales?

jum · February 2016

Fair enough. But your argument is winners, from horses, bought from sales. Not winning % from starters. As is the stallion stats

My argument is that with the natural attrition rate of horses,(dead, injured or not up to scratch). From that 255 that would bring down the % as well. Which would make it harder again to get to above 50% winners from horses sold at sale

carey · February 2016

fixed it. i was just checking over a 2 year time span instead of back to october 2008.

it means your stable is better now than it was then!
120 distinct horses with 56 wins for 46.7%
so we can say that your stable is more likely to win a race than the average stable is.
1030 runs all told, where the horse has started AND finished the race, for 160 wins.

all trainers it's......
12554 distinct horses
5279 winners of at least 1 race.
42%

all runs...
runs =149360
wins=13513

Tivers said:

If someone's really bored (Carey ? ;) ) go through the Perth sale lots of say 3-4 years ago and see what they've done.
simples.

i don't keep those sorts of records tivers.

Tivers · February 2016

jum said:
Fair enough. But your argument is winners, from horses, bought from sales. Not winning % from starters. As is the stallion stats
My argument is that with the natural attrition rate of horses,(dead, injured or not up to scratch). From that 255 that would bring down the % as well. Which would make it harder again to get to above 50% winners from horses sold at sale

No, my argument is that Falcon said winners from sale horses were "low single figures" - ie < 5%, to which I (strongly) disagree.

jum · February 2016

Correct. The argument is yours and Falcons :) . I'll stop :-@

paraletic · February 2016

Thats good info to have. Cheers fellas for looking into it. Ok so now we know its close to 50%...... Now how do we turn a profit???

Tivers · February 2016

paraletic said:
Thats good info to have. Cheers fellas for looking into it. Ok so now we know its close to 50%...... Now how do we turn a profit???

Don't over pay.

Which then clashes with the sales thread, where the breeders are wanting more.

jum · February 2016

My guess would be somewhere around 20% to 30% winners to horses sold at sale

Legless · February 2016

Tivers said:
As a completely random sample - just did first 20 lots of 2012 sale.

Should only take you a couple of hours to do the complete sale ;)
:-w

Tivers · February 2016

I'll hold at my >50%

Although not as confidently as an hour or so ago

:))

(Certainly not <5% anyway, was the initial point)

Tivers · February 2016

Legless said:

Tivers said:
As a completely random sample - just did first 20 lots of 2012 sale.
Should only take you a couple of hours to do the complete sale ;)
:-w

Probably.

But I could think of better things to spend the time on.

Just about anything actually..............

:)>-

jum · February 2016

Legless said:

Tivers said:
As a completely random sample - just did first 20 lots of 2012 sale.
Should only take you a couple of hours to do the complete sale ;)
:-w

How many winners from those 20 legless
:-??

Tivers · February 2016

12

Tivers · February 2016

How many made back their purchase price though......................completely seperate matter.

Legless · February 2016

Tivers said:

Legless said:

Tivers said:
As a completely random sample - just did first 20 lots of 2012 sale.
Should only take you a couple of hours to do the complete sale ;)
:-w
Probably.
But I could think of better things to spend the time on.
Just about anything actually..............
:)>-

:-j only 378 to go 8-}

jum · February 2016

I just did the first 100 lots sold at 2013 sale @-)

Of the first 100 lots, they sold for $5.74 million and returned $3,25 million in prize money.

43 of these horses won a race somewhere.

Of these 43. 20 of them only won the 1 race.

Tivers · February 2016

So they are 4 year olds now..............meaning a few more will come through.

Everything keeps coming back to roughly 50%, give or take, win races.

The $ side of it is a different matter..............and goes to show exactly why you need to buy smart ($ wise), wait for the right lots at the right price etc.

And more so - why you can't go buying yearlings over East and miss out of WestSpeed.

On that point - does the $3.25m incl bonuses jum ?

Tivers · February 2016

Tivers said:
As a completely random sample - just did first 20 lots of 2012 sale.
Results are.....................(drum roll).

Winners : 12 (all but 2 multiple wins - most being 5)
Placed : 2
Winless : 4
Unraced : 2

So I will admit - bit lower than I expected, but still in the 50-70% range.

In respect of jum's efforts, I've extended 2012 out to the first 40.

21 - 40 were pretty line ball with 1 - 20 (1 less winner)

So combined the numbers now are

Winners : 23

Placed :3

Winless : 10

Unraced : 4

DamienWyer · February 2016

Was that Lots 1 to 40 or the top 40 Lots ?

Tivers · February 2016

Lots 1-40

DamienWyer · February 2016

Try and get to Lot 85, he could run a bit.

Tivers · February 2016

554

jum · February 2016

Not sure if that was with bonus's or not

Tivers · February 2016

Where'd you get the numbers from ?

jum · February 2016

Went through Auction Results search, to find the mare. matched the year to get the name of horse.

Then went through either CRIS and Racenet to find out horses statistics.

Farking painstaking, but I have not much else to do on a Friday after studying the TABFORM this morning.

Tivers · February 2016

That Excludes Bonus Payments then.

So helps balance the ledger a bit.

They were 3yo's last year, so if we allocate the WestSpeed payments from 2014/15 season to that crop........

Paid out $5,567,856

Subs received $1,968,850

Profit to Owners of $3,599006

Of course that doesn't allow for WestSpeed earned by owner / breeder horses........so say half (at least).

Ohsomodest · February 2016

Interesting conversation fellas.

I haven't bought yet, been talked out of plenty by trainers already. Good to see that some of them take a long term view.

Will buy into one here, and one in Melb or Qld more than likely too.

Have learnt a lot in a short period, but plenty more to learn. Have given up on getting a Lope de Vega, and now know that OCD in horses is not a personality disorder.

And I realise I'll probably lose. But eyes wide open. And if I didn't like risk, and trying to beat the odds, I wouldn't even punt.

Bucks · February 2016

Ohsomodest

Have you enquired into

Lot 82 Dick Turpin x Palace Alice purchased for $38,000 by Impressive racing

Lot 230 Dick Turpin x Bantry Bay purchased for $40,000 by Paul Jordan

In my opinion these are the 2 that i see as the best value for money.

Lot 82

Palace Alice has produced 5 to race all winners

12yo Lords Ransom 11 wins ($869,845)

4yo Palace Intruder 3 wins ($223,850)

6yo King of the palace 5 wins ($108,042)

10yo Fortunellin 2 wins ($25,875)

5yo Castle Keep 1 win ($15,850)

Lot 230

Bantry Bay has produced 4 foals to race all winners

5yo Bayatorio 3 wins ($206,097)

2yo Our Time Will Come 2 wins ($135,200)

6yo Bantry Belle 2 wins ($57,435)

4yo Bomber Bay 2 wins ($48,325)

Both Westspeed Platinum Horses out of mares that can produce

thefalcon · February 2016

great investigative survey, bucks.

both impressive racing and paul Jordan I think would welcome anybody looking for a share.

even I may be tempted into the palace alice foal....

8-X

worstpunteronearth · February 2016

Great spot bucks. What happened to palace Alice in those 4 years in between ?

RIO · February 2016

Dick Turpin is very unproven and it says on AS Book that it was exported to the UK in December. Are they shuttling it or has it been sent back??? Thought it may have stayed here a bit longer if everyone was happy with its performance!?!?!?!

G'day Punter!

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