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Ascot Preview, 20th Feb 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
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R1. Community Tab Plate - Scott Embry
Sticking with the race hardened two year old here and putting Our Time Will Come on top. Likely to be another heavily leader bias Ascot surface and I think that the Jordan gelding can jump straight to the fence and prove very hard to catch. Blessed with natural gate speed shouldn't have to worry about anything crossing it and from there makes it's own luck. Swift Platinum should find a position just off the speed after over racing when leading in the 2 year old Magic Millions race at Pinjarra. The best of the unraced brigade looks to be Atacama Sky, half brother to Guineas winner Man Booker, who has already had his fair share of media support. Not the easiest 2 year old race to fall into on debut and I have questionmarks over the Miller debutant who will likely jump a fairly short commodity, closer to even money than to $3.
1. OUR TIME WILL COME - 2. SWIFT PLATINUM - 4. ATACAMA SKY
Sticking with the race hardened two year old here and putting Our Time Will Come on top. Likely to be another heavily leader bias Ascot surface and I think that the Jordan gelding can jump straight to the fence and prove very hard to catch. Blessed with natural gate speed shouldn't have to worry about anything crossing it and from there makes it's own luck. Swift Platinum should find a position just off the speed after over racing when leading in the 2 year old Magic Millions race at Pinjarra. The best of the unraced brigade looks to be Atacama Sky, half brother to Guineas winner Man Booker, who has already had his fair share of media support. Not the easiest 2 year old race to fall into on debut and I have questionmarks over the Miller debutant who will likely jump a fairly short commodity, closer to even money than to $3.
1. OUR TIME WILL COME - 2. SWIFT PLATINUM - 4. ATACAMA SKY
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In a small field of 6, which can probably be narrowed down to 5 with Under The Sun only winning on rain affected tracks, I'm going with Rebelson who should be able to control the tempo from the front or outside the leader, kick strongly at the top of the home straight and grind home to victory. Carries only 56.5kg for CJP which looks a luxury for the seasoned veteran. DMac definitely had the option of going into the 'Midweek Listed' event that is the 2016 Detonator Stakes but has elected to stay at 1500 and I think this maps perfectly for him. Western Blaze could easily lead them here after settling 3 wide and last, 20 lengths behind Corporate Larrikin first-up and having won twice over 1500m at Ascot previously probably represents the value runner. Carry The Nation has the best turn of foot in the field but will probably be last behind a slow tempo and on paper looks to have everything against him.
2. REBELSON - 3. WESTERN BLAZE - 1. CARRY THE NATION
Been a long time since I could confidently throw out the Sugar Hill Gang lyrics but "Tonto, Jump On It, Jump On It, Jump On It". Super keen on Tonto here second-up and more than happy to label the enigmatic gelding as the best bet on the card. Does put in a number of eye-catching performances but first-up he was absolutely bolting late behind Corporate Larrikin. His final furlong was nothing short of blistering and given a soft run by Pike from barrier 1, as long as he sees daylight, will be winning this. I see the main danger as perennial bridesmaid Saker, lightly weighted in a small field should get every possible chance for the in-form Kersley stable. Already Famous is as genuine and consistent as they come and you can pretty much lock him into the placings every single week. Don't think he can match it with Tonto punch for punch but will always be there abouts at the finish. If Tonto goes under, I'll be as poor as the tooth fairy in Collingwood.
2. TONTO - 7. SAKER - 3. ALREADY FAMOUS
SUGGESTED BET - 2. TONTO $100
Realistically I think it's fair to say that Gold Broker, Demuro, Savanarola and Reset's Mate are running for fitness, with other goals in mind, and the only positive is that owners like myself get a free beer and entry. That leaves 4 horses to contest a glorified midweek level "Listed" event. Bedamijo was a model of consistency last preparation, winning the Listed ATA Handicap after a string of impressive performances. She should roll to the front and prove very hard to catch. Only question mark is a 49 day freshen-up and whether her residual fitness is enough to get her over the line. Silver Plated is a beautiful, big, strong grey 9 year old who has only had 13 career starts. First-up run carrying 59kg over 1400m was enormous, gets a massive weight relief here and must be in contention off that effort. Angola was nibbled at first-up behind Vengabus at odds, was doing his best work after the finishing post and with W.Pike into the saddle coupled with a further furlong to run them down should be showing his best. Watch for him in the Country Cups Series over a genuine trip.
8. BEDAMIJO - 7. SILVER PLATED - 1. ANGOLA
Let It Slip deserves favouritism after her barnstorming victory in the 3 year old Magic Millions race and I would expect will open up around the $2.10 mark, however, I'm tipping Glitterbell to turn the tables here. Glitterbell is undoubtedly one of the best Magic Millions Yearling purchases of 2014. Lot 399, purchased by owner/trainer Mike Santich, for the grand total of $2000. Money extremely well spent as the 3 year old daughter of Proart has already amassed over $170 000 in stakes money and looks very well placed here to add to that total. Fairly luckless in the run at Pinjarra with Carbery forced to change direction and lose momentum with only 150 to run, just as Noske was able to gracefully drift off the fence with Let It Slip, a race winning move. With a 3kg weight swing over Let It Slip I think Glitterbell looks a good chance to turn the tables on the favourite. Let It Slip the obvious danger and those two look to have a mortgage over this race, with the quinella a popular investment. Nothing much jumps out of the page for third so I'll stick with the same form-lines and pop Castle Queen in, but a fair way off the top 2.
6. GLITTERBELL - 1. LET IT SLIP - 2. CASTLE QUEEN
SUGGESTED BET - 6. GLITTERBELL $25 x $25
This is probably the hardest race of the day to dissect but in the end I'm pretty happy with my top 3. The relatively luckless pair Socially Unique and Eurosun as well as Paris Dream. Last start Eurosun spent the majority of the race galloping in the shallows of the Swan River while Socially Unique was badly held up at crucial stages and used by Pike as a bumper car down the entire length of the straight. Paris Dream ticks two of my boxes, namely blinkers on and dropping back from 2100 to a mile. Putting those three on top together basically as a bracket winning selection and I'm quietly confident that in a very evenly graded race the winner will come from one of those three horses. Beyond them you can make a case for almost every single runner so if you're a wide quaddie player, like our mate Hash, then by all means this race screams 'field job', however, personally, I'll be playing just the 3 fancies.
6. SOCIALLY UNIQUE - 1. EUROSUN - 8. PARIS DREAM
On a massively lacklustre and disappointing card we finally have a race to get excited about. The Challenge Stakes for 3 year olds is filled with clashing form-lines and looks, on paper, to be an absolute belter of a race. Hard to believe I'm in again, but I think this race is picture perfect for my wallet burning mate, Blackwood. Think she probably under-done for her first-up effort when caught flatfooted in a slowly run race behind The Blue Nipper and should improve lengths here. Finally draws a barrier and should get a very soft run in transit just behind the speed and from there can go through her gears and reel the leaders in. Who Dat Singa will be looking to glide across from the outside and take up the running but from barrier 13 is in danger of being caught wide throughout. The Cobbla ran a cracker first-up in the 3 year old Magic Millions and will eat up 1500m but much like Who Dat Singa was dealt a bitter blow at the barrier draw. Arcadia Delight was running alongside Perfect Reflection and Blackwood throughout her last prep and is sure to make her presence felt. Beyond those 4 I'll include Black Dynamite, Spirit Bird and Forever Diamonds to give me 7 chances in a wide leg of the quaddie.
4. BLACKWOOD - 2. WHO DAT SINGA (NZ) - 6. THE COBBLA
SUGGESTED BET - 4. BLACKWOOD $10 x $40
Hard to tip against Regal Commander who is rapidly rising through the grades and been simply too good for all recent opposition. In an interview Adam Durrant suggested Regal Commander was vulnerable first-up and if he won, "had seriously improved". When ridden positively on-speed first-up he showed his class putting rivals to the sword with relative ease. Happy to put him on top here and expect him to sizzle down the middle of the track and zap these. Throwing in two on-speed runners as cover, in Gigante and Lenience. Lenience drops back sharply in grade after taking on the best of the west in recent outings. Gigante is on a weeks' back-up after a luckless 1000m dash for cash, an unsuitable distance for the bulky son of Stratum. Pretty confident Regal Commander can out-sprint Classical Prince over the concluding stages so I'll risk the Miller gelding and leave him out of both my selections and quaddie. PTT Quaddie Club: 1,6 / 1,6,8 / 2,3,4,5,6,13,14 / 2,5,8 - $100 = 79%
8. REGAL COMMANDER - 2. LENIENCE - 5. GIGANTE
SUGGESTED BET - 8. REGAL COMMANDER $100