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Ascot Preview, 6th Feb 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Amelia Park Beef Handicap - Perth Turf Talk
Not the highest class company but definitely a high quality race to start the day. Found it incredibly hard to split the top 3 and am confident the winner will come from one of them. In the end I went with the Durrant runner in Dreamtime Dancer. I have a bit of time for this filly and mentioned in the last preview that 1100m first-up would be too sharp for her. I think she did a really good job to get within 1.5 lengths of Rhi's Rocket over that trip and will thrive over further. One to follow. Black Dynamite comes from the same race and was super impressive on debut. With natural improvement should go close. Speaking of going close Spirit Bird almost knocked off Man Booker in the WA Guineas. First-up here after a very soft trial, with the Pontiff on board, sure to have a myriad of support.
6. DREAMTIME DANCER - 5. BLACK DYNAMITE - 1. SPIRIT BIRD (NZ)
Not the highest class company but definitely a high quality race to start the day. Found it incredibly hard to split the top 3 and am confident the winner will come from one of them. In the end I went with the Durrant runner in Dreamtime Dancer. I have a bit of time for this filly and mentioned in the last preview that 1100m first-up would be too sharp for her. I think she did a really good job to get within 1.5 lengths of Rhi's Rocket over that trip and will thrive over further. One to follow. Black Dynamite comes from the same race and was super impressive on debut. With natural improvement should go close. Speaking of going close Spirit Bird almost knocked off Man Booker in the WA Guineas. First-up here after a very soft trial, with the Pontiff on board, sure to have a myriad of support.
6. DREAMTIME DANCER - 5. BLACK DYNAMITE - 1. SPIRIT BIRD (NZ)
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METRO - 3UP 62+ (+2) 60+
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METRO - 3UP 62+ 62+
This race has no depth to it at all and I normally wouldn't be jumping aboard a horse coming out of a Pinjarra maiden victory but I think this race is perfect for Rosewood Hill. If Noske can get her rolling from the side barrier and she jumps relatively well then should be within striking distance. Has a nice turn of foot and looks very well placed here to notch an early Saturday victory. The $1.04 favourite in this event is Darren McAullay referring to Daisy Express as the "Iron Mare" and I'm popping her into second at odds. This field definitely lacks any depth what so ever and she is always around the mark and a live places hope yet again. Peacemaking surprised most first-up for Lindsay Smith when leading all the way. He should find the fence again here ahead of maiden galloper Champagne Charger who will appreciate a lesser grade.
7. ROSEWOOD HILL - 4. DAISY EXPRESS - 3. PEACEMAKING
SUGGESTED BET - 7. ROSEWOOD HILL $50 x $50
I never thought I would be tipping Vengabus over a mile but the way he kept finding late in the race last start suggests he will have no troubles at all. Aaron Mitchell jumps aboard for some weight relief and while I initially thought that Carry The Nation would be able to turn the tables on Vengabus after watching the replay he really did have his chance over 1500m and there was nothing to suggest that Vengabus was stopping. Happy to put him on top and tip him to make it a winning hat-trick. Carry The Nation the obvious danger. Rebelson mixes his distances like my 18 year old sister and her friends mix their drinks. Must be exciting for the DMac gelding to go to the races just to find out what distance he's tackling this week. I think the mile is probably ideal for him and represents value at around the $12 mark.
1. VENGABUS - 2. CARRY THE NATION - 4. REBELSON
SUGGESTED BET - 1. VENGABUS $50
Really happy to play Marchand here as the value runner to potentially knock off the more favoured Kennocha. Just comparing the quality of opposition last start I think Marchand can give the favourite a run for her money. Marchand finished alongside quality like Volkoff, Benito and Lenience thumping opponents like North Ridge, Petrol Power, Crown Lawyer and Flytego. Only rises 2kg on that effort and should go close. Kennocha was impressive when sporting the dreaded bar-plates first-up and extended her incredible first-up record to 4 starts for 3 wins. Yet to win second-up but a deserving favourite. Those two are well ahead of the rest for mine and I'll be on the quinella. Secret Nova best of the rest.
1. MARCHAND - 6. KENNOCHA - 2. SECRET NOVA
SUGGESTED BET - 1. MARCHAND $20 x $80
Already Famous is a galloper I would consider to be fool-proof. Rarely runs a bad race and with a career places strike rate of 56% after 36 starts, a second-up record of 5 starts for 2 wins and W.Pike in the saddle I think we can safely and confidently invest on the Anne King trained gelding here. First-up effort behind Vengabus was outstanding when coming from well off the pace to encouragingly grind into third. Should appreciate every inch of 1800m in a lacklustre field and go very close. Pikey showed on Wednesday that he is unstoppable after riding 'that cat' Fitzrovia to his second career victory after winning a Leinster maiden. Excellently looks the only speed in the race and carrying only 51kg of little Randy-Randy Tan should run a very cheeky race out in front. Bayatorio chased hard over 2100m and dropping back to 1800 is a plus, don't dismiss.
2. ALREADY FAMOUS - 5. EXCELLENTLY - 3. BAYATORIO
SUGGESTED BET - 2. ALREADY FAMOUS $50 x $50
Taking a little stance against Regal Commander here and leaving him out of my top 4. With a gun barrier draw, a noted front-running apprentice and a 1.5kg weight swing on Volkoff I'm going with Benito to break a long run of outs. There is a serious lack of 1000m 72+ handicaps making it very hard for David Harrison to place Benito, a genuine 1000m sprinter. Has only been able to get into two 1000m races this preparation and they have both been Listed events where he has run into Sheidel. For now 1100m is as good as it gets and this looks a very winnable race for him. Volkoff is absolutely flying and the obvious danger again. Woolibar has met solid pre-post support on most markets suggesting he will run a race first-up. In this leg of the quaddie I'm going with: Benito, Pininci, Woolibar, Volkoff and Regal Commander. But from a betting perspective I'll be playing Benito places heavy and laying Regal Commander who I think is vulnerable first-up in a big field which oozes quality.
1. BENITO - 9. VOLKOFF - 6. WOOLIBAR
SUGGESTED BET - 1. BENITO $50
This is quite possibly the hardest race of the day. Big question mark over Paris Dream stepping up from a mile to 2100m and we've seen many flop at their first attempt over a journey before. For that reason I'm going to tip some value and put a genuine stayer on top in So Ambitious. I'll admit there were tears in my eyes as Paul Harvey elected to stick with Sonnen and abandon So Ambitious. If the Pontiff were on board she would be one of the best bets on the card but alas we have SDM who I have a bit of time for. Should be allowed to roll forwards and probably leads this field and from there is in with a massive chance. Needs every single centimetre of 2100 and in a field where many are trying the trip for the first time I think she can turn it into a true staying test on a very hot day and prevail. Keysbrook was very well supported last start over the trip and made a searching mid-race move. Always around the mark and probably a safe places investment. Paris Dream is out of a Zabeel mare and bred to get this trip but in a big field, on a hot day, must be a bit of a risk as favourite?!
7. SO AMBITIOUS - 1. KEYSBROOK - 14. PARIS DREAM
SUGGESTED BET - 7. SO AMBITIOUS $10 x $40
Narrowing the final race down to 4 horses, the two favourites in Pounamu and Socially Unique and then two for a bit of value coming from the same race in Next Contestant and Riki Tiki Tavi. Pounamu couldn't have been more impressive in his WA debut when crossing the boarder as a 13 start maiden which I'm sure put most off on face value. However, for those who looked a little deeper and had a bit more time on their hands would have noticed a second in the Group 3 Coca-Cola Stakes at Newcastle to Sweynesse followed by a third in the Group 3 Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill and even a relatively competitive 6.75 length defeat to Winx in the Pharlap. Those races boasted extremely strong form references for an Ascot mid-weeker and fixed flucs of $12 into $4.80 suggested that there were a fair few who found those stats as appealing as I did. Putting Pounamu on top again and the hardest to beat. Next Contestant is closing in on another win after a pair of fast finishing efforts. 1400m is his go and will be charging late. Riki Tiki Tavi is about 20-1 and probably not a winning chance but I'll include him as a blowout hope. Runs have been excellent and onces W.Pike jumps back into the saddle he will be winning. Socially Unique the other runner in my quaddie. PTT Quaddie Club: 2,3,4,5 / 1,3,6,9,13 / 1,4,7,10,13,14 / 3,6,9,11 - $100 = 20.8%
11. POUNAMU - 3. NEXT CONTESTANT - 6. RIKKI TIKKI TAVI
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I looked at it and considered it but I think this time in it'll need atleast 1 run before winning, first up at 1400 is a tough ask for any horse
Dreamtime Dancer for me, 1100 to 1400 in the space of one run is the only concern, got the form behind a good one in Rhi's Rocket and was wide all the way last start over a trip too short for the horse yet still only got beaten less than 2 lengths
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Good luck if your punting..I'd be amazed if i risk a fiver on any of these!!!!
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Good luck if your punting..I'd be amazed if i risk a fiver on any of these!!!!
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Corporate Larrikin won easily against its own class last week and performed okay against a 90+ horse in Dream Lifter the run before in the Mungrup Sprint. Did it easy last week and deserves to be in the betting. Big ask to beat Vengabus, but big ask for any horse to get 3 in a row in the city.
A race to stay away from i reckon
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