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Railways Stakes 2012

West Australian Racing

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  • darkshinesdarkshines    2,837 posts
    Going to be interesting to see how how long MM stays in the Perth Cup field . . . or he may well start . . . who knows . . .
    +1 -1
  • thefalconthefalcon    20,483 posts
    no way i'd say darkshines.
    the kt and then the cox..both wfa.
    what to do then? its a dilemma we would all like to have.
    remember he will be only 3 races into his prep.
    maybe a short break and then off east.
    he'd be weighted out of the country cups, so east is the only option.
    reluctantly give him to a trainer over there and see what happens, adam has too big and successful a team to ping-pong back and forth.
    +1 -1
  • darkshinesdarkshines    2,837 posts
    I think you missed my drift falc . . . I doubt he starts too, but as topweight how long he stays in will be interesting.

    Right now that would be a disadvantage, but that could change
    +1 -1
  • RIORIO    14,902 posts
    ooohhh..are you suggesting that it depends on what other horse from that stable are in with a chance??? ;)
    +1 -1
  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,248 posts
    Why would you pull him out?
    +1 -1
  • ICEICE    683 posts
    2.65 way unders no bet for me
    +1 -1
  • SemipropunterSemipropunter    438 posts
    Rogue_Green said:

    dungy said:

    Semipro punter said:

    dungy said:

    ICE said:

    BrisburghPhil said:

    Rogue_Green said:

    BrisburghPhil said:

    SLIPPERGOLDEN said:

    BrisburghPhil said:

    SLIPPERGOLDEN said:

    Hey Phil when does your book go to press?

    Noted. It is too long!
    My comment wasn't meant to be a negative Phil.. just picking up on the observation.you appear to enjoy writing. You obviously put a fair amount of time and effort into that contribution so cheers for that.

    I took it as constructive criticism.Very easy to lose interest in this day and age if something isn't brief and to the point.
    The Raiway is a race i've always liked and I've done a 'Focus' on it a couple of times in the past on a private forum. I was completely gutted the year Sniper's Bullet won because it just totally defied history at the time. This is really the first one I've done since and not sure I'll do another one on this or any race. Very time consuming and exhausting when you have a full time job. And you go back through the post once you've finished it and realise how many errors there are! Maybe better to just pick the bones out of the race so to speak. I've had a look back at my comments re Mr. Moet and still shaking my head about not having at least a saver on it, because I did have a few others in the race. Ranger blinkered me. If i was going to back a horse first up @ 1600m in a G1 it was going to be on a horse that was actually well weighted and exposed at this level.

    Yet to really have a good look at the replay but my first thought was that Rosie Rocket was a certainty beaten. The fact she didn't get over from that barrier cruelled it for her well and truly, but she still ran 3rd. Haven't even looked at the run of Luckygray but at the 150m mark the commentator was calling it the winner and it loomed ominously. For mine he still isn't a genuine 1600m horse but time will tell.
    Jeez Phil your a harsh judge on a horse not being a genuine 1600m horse. May i ask you, which horse/horses are genuine 1600m horses? Fatl Al? Yosei?

    The very best horses are judged on their handicap form and if they can flow it through to weight for age races. Surely 2nd in a handicap where he gave 3/4 of the field 5kg, proves he is a genuine 1600m horse? He didnt win, but god he gave it a good rattle. A last 600m faster than every other horse by almost half a second when the pace wasnt over killed.
    I'll be interested to hear your comments Phil.
    Well firstly Fat Al has won at 2000 so there is no doubt he can run 1600m RG. Secondly if you read my comments about Yosei before the race I said i doubted her at a mile. Pace not over killed? They went under 60 seconds for the first 1000m which is a bit quicker than I anticipated.

    I've just watched the replay a few times. Really, how far should ROSIE ROCKET have won the race by if she had cover in the race? I'd say she wins by 2L. You admoniished me for mentioning that narrow victory Luckygray had at WFA over Rosie Rocket in June when he was second up. But you failed to mention that Rosie Rocket was first up after a 2.5 month break, so which horse was underdone??

    I'm not bagging Luckgray. He is top drawer and he run was excellent on Saturday. BUT he was out the back bludging the whole race whilst a horse like RR was working wide the whole way. He got forced horribly wide on the turn but it did actually look as though he would sprout wings and win the race half way down the straight. He couldn't sustain it though and even seemed to lay out a touch, suggesting he didn't quite run it out with the big weight. Either that or he was in the wrong part of the track, the part where no horse won from all day! That factor definitely adds weight to your argument.
    On what we've seen of him thus far do you think he is better @ 1400m or a mile?

    Now he goes to 1800m with the weights very much in his favour at WFA. Perhaps you can enlighten me as to why he got beat as a short priced favourite in the same race last year? He gets his chance this time to dismiss any doubts about his stamina. He might win but I couldn't take anything like the $2.75 offered up. $5 Playing God, $9 Ranger, $13.00 Mr Moet, $15 Rosie Rocket. He'll probably beat Ranger home but not sure about the other 3.

    I'm not professing to be an expert and I'm quite often wrong. Just my opinion atm that his optimum distance is 1400m. Happy to be proven wrong.

    You are spot Phil his pet Distance is 1200-1400 1800m will really test him and at WFA I would say no chance in Qld
    :-B
    I agree he[LG] wont run a strong 1800m didnt last year and wont this year Mr Moet has won at WFA is on the up 10s is a good price ,a couple of mates have 80-1 Mr Moet in the KT
    Only a bad ride from Donga will see Luckygray beaten.They will run along and make it a true staying test but the fact is LG is the best horse in WA, with a sprint that no horse can match. Last year he was a handicapper who was well placed in the Railway. Even if you dismiss the fact that he wasn't 100% in the KT, it wasn't a suprise he was beaten at WFA. This time around he gets weight turn arounds in his favour and is third up,not at the end of along prep. I honestly thought they were bonkers for even nominating for the Railway thisyear, and thought the KT was a much more realistic summer target.
    If you say they will make it a true run staying event then LG has none !!! If they walk and make it a sprint home then he wins .
    He isnt a stayer he is a middle distance horse and a mile sees him out i understand he meets them all better on weights but just reckon he is better at 1400m -1600m IMO is to short to get on now
    As much as i like your comments SemiPro, i doubt they will make it a staying test. What horse in WA is a true stayer? ha.
    If Luckygray is sound, he will be winning the KT. Even his trainer doubts he is a 1800m plus horse, but quality will get horses along way.
    As last year and the year before, Playing god will draw a marble of a gate (im predicting 3 or 4). He will try to pinch a break on the corner and hope no one runs hims down. A 90% Luckygray just wins this. Even with injury concerns and a longer prep last year, he ran 5th when he was a handicapped horse at best. He has upgraded to WFA and has the bulk to carry it.
    Surely Rosie Rocket won't sit four wide in the KT? Playing God will go forward and I'd think Mr Moet will, too or at least get rolling along way out. He looked to just grind away in the railway.If any of the 3yos accept, you would expect them to go forward, too.
    +1 -1
  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    darkshines said:

    Going to be interesting to see how how long MM stays in the Perth Cup field . . . or he may well start . . . who knows . . .

    Very good point DS i thought the exact same thing as Chester Rd will be there main chance now that MM is weighted out with that rating he will be 57/58kg you can see whats going to happen here
    +1 -1
  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    Rogue_Green said:

    ICE said:

    LG 117 for a second WTF

    To be fair it was almost a career best run. But he didnt win, so really he shouldnt get a penalty. WA raters are just rating him out of Perth, shame really for Perth Racing.
    I see Mr Moet up to 112. Ouch, a horse with 24 races under his belt. Unlikely to be progressing that much that he will be competitive in Weight for age race in the East. Possibly a 10 furlong race here, but otherwise i cant see him even figuring in the Perth Cup.
    Shame how one big win can shoot ratings up so high. Same thing happened to Luckygray last year, but he was progressing and i still think he has more scope left.
    Who cares about ratings points when they won a gr-1 $1m race on the weekend
    +1 -1
  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    ICE said:

    2.65 way unders no bet for me

    I agree i wouldnt be on the grey at any price as i said i think if they run along and turn it to a true staying test over the 1800m i dont like him
    +1 -1
  • darkshinesdarkshines    2,837 posts
    darkshines said:

    Going to be interesting to see how how long MM stays in the Perth Cup field . . . or he may well start . . . who knows . . .

    Mad prediction ..... poor gallop Dec 30 and Mr Moet late scratching. Chester Road meets three quarts of field 2kg better than it should ... or maybe I'm being too Dick Francis????
    +1 -1
  • ICEICE    683 posts
    dungy said:

    ICE said:

    2.65 way unders no bet for me

    I agree i wouldnt be on the grey at any price as i said i think if they run along and turn it to a true staying test over the 1800m i dont like him

    :)) =))
    +1 -1
  • Piston_BrokePiston_Broke    2,047 posts
    I think he will start he is going East anyway, the way Meeres has been riding 4 wide would be a good ride. Willie to win the cup
    +1 -1
  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    Piston_Broke said:

    I think he will start he is going East anyway, the way Meeres has been riding 4 wide would be a good ride. Willie to win the cup

    Im keen Chester Rd took some early fixed prices so im sticking with him
    +1 -1
  • raconteurraconteur    610 posts
    Does it seem that there is a very narrow Trainers' base for this year's Cup with AD / NDP / GW having 10 of the 16 between them?

    At least we know what will make the pace - sorry, I mean lead, in the absence of Great Wall of China.
    +1 -1
  • squirtsquirt    32 posts
    Exactly raconteur, those three trainers should not flood the big races. Its BS, Should only be allowed 1 runne and give the little blokes a chance of getting in. Unfortunately you go to the trials and they have that many coming along that it'll always be flooded by these guys. Boring
    +1 -1
  • squirtsquirt    32 posts
    Also a lot of these horses don't even get to the track. The breeding is turning over too many horses. Its like a production line. And I'm a punter, but feel for the poor nags, don't have much time for a lot of the steerers on top.
    +1 -1
  • RexRex    406 posts
    squirt said:

    Exactly raconteur, those three trainers should not flood the big races. Its BS, Should only be allowed 1 runne and give the little blokes a chance of getting in. Unfortunately you go to the trials and they have that many coming along that it'll always be flooded by these guys. Boring

    +1 -1
  • RexRex    406 posts
    So are you saying squirt that as an owner paying huge monthly trainig fees that if you have a horse good enough to start in a big race and your trainer has other horses good enough to be in the same race you should give your horse to the little bloke to give him a chance. All owners should be classed equal especialy as they pay the bills and not the screeming punters at the local pub that don't even know what a horse costs to train or cares. It is about time that the owners that support the industry should be looked after. If there is any malpractice in a race that is what stewards are for. Would be prety boring at the local slop shop without owners and horses.
    +1 -1
  • thefalconthefalcon    20,483 posts
    i nearly spewed when i read the rant of the "man with china teeth" that battle emblem did not get a start.
    he has clutted the field with a few that cannot win, scratch them and give others a start!!
    my roughie was big josh...2nd emergency, deserved a start imo.
    +1 -1
  • squirtsquirt    32 posts
    Hello Rex, see your point, and have been an owner and paid those bills and have had a horse in the PC, I just think that stewards should allocate it around equally. I realize it needs to be competetive, And every owner thinks they have a winner. Why cant they have certain races during the year that allows the winner to automatically nominates them to get into these big races. Also put it back to 3200, that use to sort the men out from the boys!!
    +1 -1
  • RexRex    406 posts
    Thanks squirt and I agree with you regarding the cup as there isn't enough true staying races now and makes it hard when breeding stayers. It is a pity that the cup is always run on century plus day but it has been that way since year dot
    +1 -1
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