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Railways Stakes 2012

West Australian Racing
Rogue_GreenRogue_Green    294 posts
edited November 2012 West Australian Racing
I thought i better start a fresh page on the 2012 Railway stakes.
Looks like a half decent rendition this year, can anyone see the Eastern States horses troubling our best? Good luck picking Fat Al, he's a hard horse to catch. Yosie another, she just runs on every race but its always too late. Wall Street i think is the one who is under the radar, just tracking along nicely. Unsure if this race was an after thought, or his main aim but if hes 100% fit then he will run a race.

On to the local hopes. Luckygray i think is the top hope, even though carrying 58kg i can see him running a race. Bit of an unknown is Ranger. We all know he is a consistent horse without being a punters favourite, but he gets in nicely with the 53kg. I just think now down to $5 and only ran in trials up to this, will those trials be enough for him?
Outside of those two horses, Machino will be running on but cant see him beating either Luckygray or Ranger and if West River Kevydon gets a soft lead (which i doubt with Fat Al in the race) he might give some cheek.
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Comments

  • RIORIO    14,902 posts
    When I saw this thread I thought beauty, let the arguments begin....bit of fun to spice up the week. But I reckon you have got it spot on RG..Wall Street is the best of the east coast and LG just has to perform as he should and it is his..Ranger is an unknown this prep, but as you say, just doesn't have the luck, or sparkle, or kick to go with the better horses. Also I missed getting on at $13, where I reckon his value is and $5 is well under..haha

    LG working hard down the outside for me over Wall Street with Ranger just passing West River Kevydon or Fat Al - depending on who gets the better barrier out of those two.
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  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,985 posts
    Even though Luckygray carries a lot more weight than last year, he has matured into a much better horse. Ranger is weighted to win but my concern is that by avoiding racing, he be hard enough in the final 100M ?
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  • Rogue_GreenRogue_Green    294 posts
    Damien Wyer said:

    Even though Luckygray carries a lot more weight than last year, he has matured into a much better horse. Ranger is weighted to win but my concern is that by avoiding racing, he be hard enough in the final 100M ?

    Thats the unkown i guess with Ranger, we havnt seen him apart from trials. Where we know Luckygray has matured and become a much better horse than last year. Looking at it logically, he hasnt increased in rating points from last year and most of the other horses above him have. So at the weights he is pretty much on the mark. Would be good to know from the stable what there real goal is. Is he going to be almost totally set for the Railway, or is this his warm up to the Kingston Town?
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  • darkshinesdarkshines    2,837 posts
    edited November 2012
    Ranger is a horse who obviously appreciates softer tracks. a) His peak performance (last years Lee Steere on soft ground) was comparable to Luckygray's win this year, and b) going in to this first up is a clear give-away that his legs don't stand up.

    Bearing that in mind he is unders IMO.

    He'd be very well placed at the front end of the spring in Melbourne when the tracks are damp over 1400 (like what Luckygray tried this year - but that was a different story).
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  • Rogue_GreenRogue_Green    294 posts
    I've just watched the replay of last years Railway, over the last 200m Luckygray is going 3 strides to every other horses 1 stride. He ate up the ground coming off the corner. When Shauny pushes that buttom i think we will see exactly the same thing happen, even with the 5kg extra from last year. He is at least 5kg better a horse.
    Best of luck to every other horse trying to go with him. I have also been told Luckygray has come on since his first up run. Ticking along ver nicely i hear.
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  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,248 posts
    he takes that bend at ascot so well....the other horse i remember taking the bend that well and covering half the field while turning was Marasco in his hey day.
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  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,985 posts
    The Diva said:

    he takes that bend at ascot so well....the other horse i remember taking the bend that well and covering half the field while turning was Marasco in his hey day.

    Not the he is a Raliway horse, but Barakey rails better than most
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  • Rogue_GreenRogue_Green    294 posts
    Damien Wyer said:

    The Diva said:

    he takes that bend at ascot so well....the other horse i remember taking the bend that well and covering half the field while turning was Marasco in his hey day.

    Not the he is a Raliway horse, but Barakey rails better than most
    Very true, Barakey rails at ascot like a greyhound (well the ones that do it smoothly). And he gets a good kick off the corner when Brown lets the hand brake off.
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  • BrisburghPhilBrisburghPhil    54 posts
    With 53kg Ranger is probably the best weighted horse we have ever seen in this race, let alone any race! How come he gave Luckygray 3.5kg this year , carried 56.5kg and now gets 5kg off him? That is ludicrous and seems like a gross error of judgement by the handicapper. He was beaten 6L last year and got poleaxed. I reckon he would have finished 3L closer than he did..... at least.
    Even first up (he has had 3 trials) I really don't know how you couldn't back him with that weight.
    Historically this is a race that suits on pacers, down in the weights, that are well drawn. The danger for Ranger (no punt intended) is getting as far back as he did last year.
    Luckygray kind of reversed the trend last year but he didn't actually win and his run seemed to end 50m out. Just a slight doubt at the distance for mine with that weight, but I like what has been said by The Diva about his affinity for the bend at Ascot.
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  • darkshinesdarkshines    2,837 posts
    Change in weights for the two all due to the weakness of the race last year.
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  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,248 posts
    barakey is a different proposition. its easy to rail like a greyhound when you've got the rail. Much harder to round them up as you're going round the bend 4 and 5 deep. Luckygray does it so well.
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  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    darkshines said:

    Change in weights for the two all due to the weakness of the race last year.

    ranger has dropped 4 points since last year, and assuming last year was correct, then don't understand why it has.
    it has not failed in wa since, although it may have in vic, but any good handicapper knows you don't drop points when racing out of your class.
    and a quick glance reveals only one bad run here anyway.

    so basically it has dropped 2kg in quality according to the handicapper and this running is also scaled stronger.
    have no idea if he can win it, but am pretty sure he has been treated leniently.
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  • VorgtrafficVorgtraffic    1,755 posts
    I could definitely back fat al at double figure odds
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  • RadmanRadman    1,992 posts
    Ranger is non genuine IMO. 22 starts for 6 wins is a poor record for a horse with that much ability.
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  • RIORIO    14,902 posts
    I don’t know about LG "railing" well but I agree that he takes that bend very well..it is a matter of controlling the drift whilst under full power and just drifting into position, without backing off..LG does it very well...and a lot of that can be attributed to his pilot..IMO he and the fish are best at that in WA
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  • Rogue_GreenRogue_Green    294 posts
    With the weight issue, im no expert on handicaps and weights in these races. But as im sure others can atest to, the handicapper usually uses the highest rated horse to measure the top weight from and then the rest of the weights filter through this. I dont think Ranger has dropped rating points as such, its just that others like Luckygray and Playing god have gained points therefore they go up to near the top of the scale.
    If Luckygray didnt have another run from his Railway run last year until the Lee Steer 2 weeks ago, then he probably would be equal top weight with Playing god and Fat Al.
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  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    this year......
    14 RANGER * 53 m106 WILLIAM PIKE GRANT WILLIAMS

    last year....
    3 RANGER B 5 56 m110 WILLIAM PIKE GRANT WILLIAMS

    that is a drop of 4 points, unless 110-106 = nothing :-?

    oh and i notice the blinkers are back on
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  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,985 posts
    How many times has it happened that a WA horse went to Melbourne and 'failed' then comes back home and is handicapped so fortunately ? I can't remember too many occasions off the top of my head. Most come back and run at their pre-trip rating
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  • Rogue_GreenRogue_Green    294 posts
    carey said:

    this year......
    14 RANGER * 53 m106 WILLIAM PIKE GRANT WILLIAMS

    last year....
    3 RANGER B 5 56 m110 WILLIAM PIKE GRANT WILLIAMS

    that is a drop of 4 points, unless 110-106 = nothing :-?

    oh and i notice the blinkers are back on

    Apologies, i just assumed that considering he hadnt really run in WA apart from his nice Kingston Town 2nd his points would be at least the same. Surely with Luckygrays failure over East, they take this into account too? ha, clearly not.
    So if is the way it should be, then Ranger gets 55kg like Yosie?
    Seems like a more reasonable weight considering, it seems the handicapper hasnt even considered his 2nd in the Kingston Town where he beat Luckygray at weight for age?
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  • careycarey    6,424 posts

    the horse dropped 2 points after the railway last year.
    got 1 or 2 back after the kt.
    why it dropped 2 points i have no idea considering it was pole axed.
    perhaps mr hunter neglected to read the report or watch the replay, or maybe he has a bias, don't know.
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  • Piston_BrokePiston_Broke    2,047 posts
    Damien Wyer said:

    The Diva said:

    he takes that bend at ascot so well....the other horse i remember taking the bend that well and covering half the field while turning was Marasco in his hey day.

    Not the he is a Raliway horse, but Barakey rails better than most

    really I always noticed he is at least 1 off the fence when he straightens, my thought was he goes too quick to rail so good, I have noticed he has a flat spot at some stage in the straight then gets going again about 75m before the line, a couple of times he looks a littlle vulnerable (when he hits that flat spot) then seems to get things under control again, maybe because the opposition gets too tired chasing him at his high speed for 600

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  • hashhash    7,495 posts

    Full field declared for 2012 Railway Stakes


    http://www.racenet.com.au/news/85395/Full-field-declared-for-2012-Railway-Stakes?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

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  • SemipropunterSemipropunter    438 posts
    2kg = 1 length therefore Luckygray is 2.5l(5kg) superior to Ranger. Sounds about right :-?
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  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,985 posts
    Piston_Broke said:

    Damien Wyer said:

    The Diva said:

    he takes that bend at ascot so well....the other horse i remember taking the bend that well and covering half the field while turning was Marasco in his hey day.

    Not the he is a Raliway horse, but Barakey rails better than most

    really I always noticed he is at least 1 off the fence when he straightens, my thought was he goes too quick to rail so good, I have noticed he has a flat spot at some stage in the straight then gets going again about 75m before the line, a couple of times he looks a littlle vulnerable (when he hits that flat spot) then seems to get things under control again, maybe because the opposition gets too tired chasing him at his high speed for 600

    I just thought that was switching from 'automatic' to 'cruise control' ?
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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,483 posts
    boys, don't forget the parnham horse god has spoken drops to 53kg after that great run behind lucky....just a thought...
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  • Rogue_GreenRogue_Green    294 posts
    the falcon said:

    boys, don't forget the parnham horse god has spoken drops to 53kg after that great run behind lucky....just a thought...

    Both Parnham horses drew nicely, they will be camped just off the speed when Fat Al comes accross. Be interesting to see if WRKD wants to lead or Fat Al does.
    Can see Ranger getting a nice run as well from his barrier, if he is well enough and fit enough im sure he will be in this. Cant go past Luckygray though, even with the weight i think he is in this all day.
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  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    1kg = 1 length
    Semipro punter said:

    2kg = 1 length therefore Luckygray is 2.5l(5kg) superior to Ranger. Sounds about right :-?

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  • Rogue_GreenRogue_Green    294 posts
    dungy said:

    1kg = 1 length

    Semipro punter said:

    2kg = 1 length therefore Luckygray is 2.5l(5kg) superior to Ranger. Sounds about right :-?

    I thought the 1kg=1 length was referring to races more than 2000m? The Dunaden camp were claiming this was the case over the Melb Cup, so you wouldnt think over a 1600m race it would have as much of an impact.

    Everything is relative, but with Ranger getting the same weight as a 93 rater in the race. Obvioulsy Mr Peters has pulled the right strings, and spoken to the right people.
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  • octaviusoctavius    2,290 posts
    Yes, it is pretty common knowledge that 1kg = 1 length of a piece of string over any distance...
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  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    octavius said:

    Yes, it is pretty common knowledge that 1kg = 1 length of a piece of string over any distance...

    stick to footy Occy :)
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