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1 PLAYING GOD 0 57 m112 STEVEN PARNHAM NEVILLE PARNHAM
2 WARATAH'S SECRET X 0 57 m112 PAUL HARVEY DAVID HARRISON
3 RANGER B 0 56 m110 WILLIAM PIKE GRANT WILLIAMS
4 KING KOOL KAT 0 55 m108 DUNCAN MILLER IAN GLADING
5 LORDS RANSOM 0 54 m106 GRANT WILLIAMS
6 AVIENUS B 0 53 m103 CRAIG WILLIAMS MARK WEBB
7 BATTLE EMBLEM B 0 53 m99 GRANT WILLIAMS
8 BIG TED 0 53 m91 MARCO CHUI IVAN HAGGERTY
9 HE'S REMARKABLE(NZ) * 0 53 m102 KERRIN MC EVOY ROGER JAMES
10 KINCAPLE(NZ) 0 53 m99 TROY TURNER MARK B. REED
11 LUCKYGRAY 0 53 m99 SHAUN O'DONNELL GINO POLETTI
12 MEGA STEEL 0 53 m98 JARRAD NOSKE BRUCE MC CLUNE
13 ROCKY RANGE B 0 53 m92 ALAN MATHEWS
14 SPACECRAFT * 0 53 m101 PETER KNUCKEY DAVID HAYES
15 TRANQUILITY B 0 53 m92 JASON WHITING GRANT WILLIAMS
16 WESTRIVER KEVYDONN 0 53 m97 PAIGE KENNEY
17 OUR OL' FELLA E1 0 53 m88 SHAUN MC GRUDDY STEVE WOLFE
18 RINGMEISTER E2 0 53 m84 LINDSEY SMITH
49825 1 Playing God $7.50 2.60 W/P
100460 2 Waratah`s Secret $15 4.50 W/P
102362 3 Ranger $3.80 1.70 W/P
162314 4 King Kool Kat $31 8.50 W/P
163867 5 Lords Ransom $61 16 W/P
79611 6 Avienus $10 3.20 W/P
8698 7 Battle Emblem $101 26 W/P
3215 8 Big Ted $151 41 W/P
5980 9 He`s Remarkable $7.50 2.60 W/P
13455 10 Kincaple $19 5.50 W/P
25234 11 Luckygray $5.00 2.00 W/P
33747 12 Mega Steel $61 16 W/P
35342 13 Rocky Range $61 16 W/P
49411 14 Spacecraft $21 6.00 W/P
49539 15 Tranquility $15 4.50 W/P
50362 16 Westriver Kevydonn $13 4.00 W/P
52550 17 Our Ol` Fella (1E) $151 41 W/P
53387 18 Ringmeister (2E) $61 16 W/P
cheers
Still possible to get a run...a lot can happen between now and Saturday morning.
I would be trying to have the best available jockey....being second emergency is irrelevant.
cheers
Simply because last start it was $9
Avienus ran 2nd in the Gr1 Caulfield Stakes and is rock-hard fit.
He's Remarkable is in top form, won a nice race during Cup week and was unlucky in the Gr2 mile at the Valley. Due to Avienus not travelling across too well i'm leaning towards him on top and a great e/w bet.
Waratah's also great value. I'd be taking the $4.50 a place on him before i'd take the $3.60 for Ranger.
HR drawn 1. Well it cant win now. KKK drawn well and could do something at good odds.
It was $9 because on weights it couldnt win...BUT it still did......which gives the win even more merit, or are we placing too much emphasis on this win?
Unfortunately it has gone up in the weights with the scratching of the top weights, and the handicapper rated that win very highly (whether rightly of wrongly)
WS was ~$2.30 in that race, ranger was $9. Although WS was beaten 3L, the race was only one possibility of what could have happened. The odds on the day suggest that over a period of time, WS would have won that race more times than ranger. It's as you say, that you shouldn't put too much emphasis on last start as it was one possibility of what could have happened.
Does it seem right to you that a $9 shot becomes a $3.50 shot next start whereas a $2.30 shot drifts to $14.
A simple example was on the weekend in a race in brisbane. Our Recidivist was a $5 shot against $3.50 favourite rundle. Our Recidivist wins the race by 1.3L at their last start. At the next start, rundle turns the tables at $5.50 where OR runs at $1.80 favourite. Does this seem right to you? The market simply hasn't acknowledged that a race is only one snapshot of what could have happened.
the one that got harshly treated as far as it goes was the kenny horse.
it was supposedly a 92+ hcp.
but the horse that made it thus was a light of better days, and out of the 1st four placegetters, 3 of them were out of the handicap(they would have received less weight if possible), so it was complete and utter nonsense to post race call the race a 92+ and give the winner what amounts to a 2.5kg penalty for winning a substandard race.
92 + 5 =97 rating.......J O K E S V I L L E
now all we need is the pretend pontiff to do his bit and if he does i will refer to him as the real pontiff henceforth :lol:
could not resist the 21 bucks on offer, so although i could get sfa on, i can at least say i got a good price if it salutes.
not that i necessarily expect it to, just it was too big a price to ignore i think.
Carey, Ranger was classed m98 and after the win in the Lee Steere was classed m110, a jump of 12 points in the ratings. This to me suggests it was deemed a very good win, some would say the handicapper rated the win highly? Maybe he should of been penalised more then? Luckygrey also jumped 15 ratings points when winning the Asian Beau on the minimum, does this win rate highly because there was Megatic in the filed, which is a shadow of his former self, but rated highly nonetheless. How much would have he been penalised if Megatic wasn't in the field, is it the same or at the handicapper discretion?
Regardless, the final field is set and the market is what it is. Its up to us to find the winner now
that didn't happen, so although it's rating jumped a good bit, it should have been more(of course that is with the proviso that the ratings of the horses it beat were correct in the first place)
if you look at it how you did, then what say you about the jump for the kenny horse...78 to 97?
that WAS ridiculous, not because it went up 19 points but because the handicapper has made a major error in the so called standard of that race.
it demonstrates what i have known forever, official handicappers don't go in depth, they do it by rote.