Caulfield & Melbourne Cup WeightsEast Coast Racing

PC

Today, Racing Victoria Chief Handicapper Greg Carpenter released the weights for the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup. Now it gets interesting. Last year's Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare will carry 57kg - a 5kg increase on last year's weight. Well done to Greg and his team as always.

See link below for the weights


https://www.racenet.com.au/news/melbourne-cup-weights-vow-and-declare-gets-57kg-for-tilt-at-backtoback-cups-20200908

Thunderstruck

V & D has no hope with 57 and getting penalised 3.5 for winning by a head is harsh.
Surprise Baby going up a kilo is a bit rich too.
Connections are happy enough with Verry Elleegant getting 55 that's good enough for me.
I had the impression Russian Camelot was going CC then MC but its up in the air for a couple what route they take i guess..a bonus with his allocated weight is Ollie will stick throughout as he can ride at 53.5.

PC

I actually think VE has got in light. 55kg for a horse who, prior to the weights being declared, has won 2 G1 WFA races this year. 56kg would of been a better weight.

VE only has 0.5kg more then Surprise Baby and VE has been the better performed horse so far

PC

Thunderstruck said:

V & D has no hope with 57 and getting penalised 3.5 for winning by a head is harsh.
Surprise Baby going up a kilo is a bit rich too.
Connections are happy enough with Verry Elleegant getting 55 that's good enough for me.
I had the impression Russian Camelot was going CC then MC but its up in the air for a couple what route they take i guess..a bonus with his allocated weight is Ollie will stick throughout as he can ride at 53.5.

History is against Vow And Declare. The last Melbourne Cup winnner to carry 57kg+ was Makybe Diva in 2005, she carried 58kg. However the last male horse to carry 57kg (which Vow And Declare has) and win the Melbourne Cup was Gold And Black in 1977.

therealkramer

@PC Protectionist(2014) carried 56.5kg and won by 4. I doubt the 0.5kg would have stopped it. Nonetheless, most winners carry less than 55kg

Criterion(3rd, 2015) carried 57.5kg and sat on a moderate pace...it was no two miler but you don't need to be if the tempo is agreeable. 

PC

therealkramer said:

@PC Protectionist(2014) carried 56.5kg and won by 4. I doubt the 0.5kg would have stopped it. Nonetheless, most winners carry less than 55kg

Criterion(3rd, 2015) carried 57.5kg and sat on a moderate pace...it was no two miler but you don't need to be if the tempo is agreeable. 

Protectionist is a much better stayer then Vow And Declare. Protectionist got a Timeform rating of 128 for the Melbourne Cup win in 2014, in comparison Vow And Declare was given 117 for his Cup win in 2019.

Criterion ran well in 2017 with 57kg but as you said wasn't a "proper 2-miler". The pace was slow up front and he was in the top 7 or 8 from memory during running.

PC

https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/news/australian-racing/racing-twitter-fuming-over-melbourne-cup-weight-penalty/628818

therealkramer

PC said:

therealkramer said:

@PC Protectionist(2014) carried 56.5kg and won by 4. I doubt the 0.5kg would have stopped it. Nonetheless, most winners carry less than 55kg

Criterion(3rd, 2015) carried 57.5kg and sat on a moderate pace...it was no two miler but you don't need to be if the tempo is agreeable. 

Protectionist is a much better stayer then Vow And Declare. Protectionist got a Timeform rating of 128 for the Melbourne Cup win in 2014, in comparison Vow And Declare was given 117 for his Cup win in 2019.

Criterion ran well in 2017 with 57kg but as you said wasn't a "proper 2-miler". The pace was slow up front and he was in the top 7 or 8 from memory during running.

A lot of these ratings are heavily weighted by times. Protectionist's 2014 winning time(3:17.71) was the 2nd fastest since 1990 with only Media Puzzle's win(3:16.97) quicker. Protectionist, ridden patiently, benefited from a fast tempo and the 4 length winning margin reflects that. The following year, the same margin(4L) separated 1st-11th.  Prince of Penzance, 2015(3:23.15) & Vow And Declare(3:24.76) were farcically run affairs with hard luck stories everywhere.