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Ascot Preview, 15th Oct 2016

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    3,054 posts
edited October 2016 West Australian Racing
R1. Silks Plate - Chris Nelson

Simon Miller has always boasted an exceptionally good record with 2 year old's and his powerful yard produced the first 2 year old winner of the season in Achenar Star who was ultra impressive sitting three wide throughout and pulling away to win. He is looking to make it 2 from 2 here with Seannie and looks to have a very good chance of doing so. The trial performance over 950m could not have been any quieter with Ryan Hill easing the Sebring Filly into the race and leaving her untested down the straight. Awkwardly drawn in barrier 10 but expect to see her stide forward into a prominent position on speed and give a big sight on debut. Golden Trigger won the trial that Seannie was in when leading from start to finish. Looks to be a juvenile with lots of speed and the likely leader of the race, usually the place to be at Ascot. She Loves To Talk showed enough in trials to be competitive.

8. SEANNIE - 1. GOLDEN TRIGGER - 9. SHE LOVES TO TALK

SUGGESTED BET - 8. SEANNIE $50 x $50

Comments

  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    3,054 posts
    edited October 2016
    R3. Hosemasters Plate - Chris Nelson

    This is an intriguing little race for the 3 year olds with many on a Guineas preparation stepping up to 1400m. The favourite Minus Looks has undeniable ability having won both of his career starts to date, however, could not have enjoyed a more economical run last start when tracking up behind the leader Caipriniah and then easing off her heels over the final 200m to reel her in. Unlikely to get as cosy a run here and we will get to see just how good he is. Royal Missile has solid form around Bonny Be Good who has stamped herself as one of the better 3 year olds in the state so far this preparation. Will get back on a potentially leader bias track which is the major concern. Variation was beaten a long way by Swift Platinum but hit the line well to suggest 1400m would be to his liking. Should get a soft run from the inside. Sunset Pete is still a maiden but looks the leader and can kick.

    4. ROYAL MISSILE - 5. VARIATION - 6. SUNSET PETE
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    3,054 posts
    edited October 2016
    R8. Mumm Champagne Handicap - Chris Nelson

    Cool Passion is undefeated at Ascot after 3 starts and with Paul Harvey taking the mount and Blinkers being added to race gear for the first time in her career I think Cool Passion is one of the best bets on the card and don't expect the $5 eachway to last very long. No surprise to see her backed into favouritism by the jump and lead from start to finish. Silverstream has a brilliant first-up record and an electric turn of foot but from barrier 11 will have to do it tough. By race 8 punters will know how the Ascot track is playing and get a very good indication of her winning chances. Bourne Supremacy should get the sofest of runs from barrier 2 and if he gets splits at the right time could be the big threat to Cool Passion. Can not discount Volkoff who flys at Ascot and will relish being back at hers and my favourite track.

    5. COOL PASSION - 10. BOURNE SUPREMACY - 8. SILVERSTREAM

    SUGGESTED BET - 5. COOL PASSION $50 x $50
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    3,054 posts
    edited October 2016
    R7. Northerly Stakes - Chris Nelson

    Extremely exciting to see some of Bob Peters' "A-Team" back on show in preparation for yet another assault on the Perth Summer Carnival. Perfect Reflection returns as a 4 year old mare after a tilt at a few Eastern States races after her 2015 Kingston Town victory over Delicacy. She carried only 50kg on that occasion and rises sharply in the weights for her first-up assignment to 57.5 which could make her vulnerable, however, she oozes class and I think she is definitely still the one to beat. Disposition looks very well weighted in this race carrying an identical weight to stablemate Perfect Reflection. He is yet another Peters galloper who is all class and a deserving second favourite. Neverland will attempt to see out the Peters/Williams trifecta, her record over 1400m, first-up and at Ascot are impecable and should give a genuine account. Lite 'N' In My Veins proved himself last start when winning over a seemingly unsuitable 1200m.

    3. PERFECT REFLECTION - 4. DISPOSITION - 9. NEVERLAND
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    3,054 posts
    edited October 2016
    R6. Singin In The Rain Handicap - Chris Nelson

    4 year old Lohnro mare Jestajingle has proven herself an incredibly adaptable galloper coming out and running second on debut at a mile, dropping back to 1200m and then winning at 1000m leading all the way. This preparation she resumed over 1000m, settled back in the field and savaged the line. Drawn barrier 3 here she can sit closer to the speed for Hall and prove the one to beat. Invincible Warrior is an undefeated 3 year old taking on the older horses and can definitely measure up. Debut win on speed was strong holding off Faerie Whisper who ran second at her next start and Miss Somebody who broke her maiden at Northam on Thursday in a sizzling 56 seconds. Should get a lovely tow into the race from the inside gate behind likely leader Greco who I think can run a race at odds. Tongue Tie goes on after being stranded 4 wide throughout in midweek grade. Looks a horse who will love the short, sharp Ascot circuit and is one to include at odds.

    10. JESTAJINGLE - 8. INVINCIBLE WARRIOR - 3. GRECO
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    3,054 posts
    edited October 2016
    R5. Myer Fashions On The Field Handicap - Chris Nelson

    I am willing to risk Kalgoorlie pair Bollywood Blitz and Burkina in the opening leg of the quaddie. They have both had fairly long preparations and make the journey down from the Goldfields to Ascot. I think the two horses at the top of the race book in Proxy and All Too Much will have them covered over 1800. Proxy was a very impressive winner at Belmont over a mile before stepping up to 2200m where he was found wanting over the final stages with dour stayers Fathoms of Gold and Midnight Banquet having his measure dictating from the front. Dropping back to 1800m I think Proxy will go very close to winning. All Too Much should get a very soft run behind the leader or leading himself from barrier 1 and can control the tempo of the race. Should give a sight at his first look at a middle distance. Studio Fifty Four doesn't win out of turn but his effort behind subsequent winner Prying Tom was good and he should get a lovely run on the speed.

    2. PROXY - 1. ALL TOO MUCH - 12. STUDIO FIFTY FOUR (NZ)
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    3,054 posts
    edited October 2016
    R2. Crown Towers Perth Trophy - Chris Nelson

    This may only be a 6 horse field but it's super competitive with a horse like Flying Roar looking for 4 wins on the bounce at $12 in most fixed odds markets. Star Exhibit returns first-up from a spell at Ascot as he did last year when knocking off Pounamu over 1600m. In a small field he will have a short sharp sprint at them down the home straight but I am hoping that with race fitness, a weight advantage and potentially a two length head start that Infathuated can hold him out. Drops in weight with Paul Harvey retaining the mount back to a track where he has enjoyed previous success I think Infathuated around $5 in a small field is good shopping and I will risk the even money favourite first-up. Pounamu is a noted non-winner and one who has run out of chances and excuses for mine.

    4. INFATHUATED - 2. STAR EXHIBIT - 5. POUNAMU

    SUGGESTED BET - 4. INFATHUATED $50 x $50
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    Infathuated $4.8
    Lolong $8.5
    Liten in my veins $15
    Volkoff $11

    Best big priced roughie, definately Vengabus $71

    Quaddie
    1-2-3-5-9-12
    1-5-7-8-10-11
    3-4-5-7-9-10-11
    2-8-9

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • FreoHitmanFreoHitman    426 posts
    Really like the competitiveness of this card , this card bats deeper than it seems 

    Race 1- 1 Golden Trigger           Dangers - 3,4,8,10
    Race 2- 2 Star Exhibit         Dangers - 2,5
    Race 3- 8 Samovare             Dangers - 2,4   Blow Out 7
    Race 4-  No tip -      Blow Out - Smart as a Fox
    Race 5- 1 All Too Much    Danger 2,5     Blow Outs 10,11,12
    Race 6- 12 Wrinkly      Danger 5,8
    Race 7- 9 Neverland     Danger 3,4,5,7,10
    Race 8- can not split 2,5,8,9

    hash likes this post.

  • ChelseaChelsea    1,369 posts
    Samovare
    Lolong
    Viking Forrest
    Volkoff


  • thefalconthefalcon    20,471 posts

    be very cautious, first day at ascot and inclement weather.

    tread lightly boys and girls...

    jum, Chelsea likes this post.

    hash dislikes this post.

  • rustyhrustyh    2,275 posts
    edited October 2016
    X_X
    Far out.......pretty wet and windy!

    :-/
    All OK out at the track?

    Suns out! All good.
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited October 2016
    thefalcon said:

    be very cautious, first day at ascot and inclement weather.

    tread lightly boys and girls...

    Maybe Perfect Reflection is a better bet than i first thought? Bob didn't sound very confident about his top two chances but PR goes more than ok in the slop :)]

    Good 4 according to racenet. Any chance the track is worse than that?

    rustyh likes this post.

  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    thefalcon said:

    be very cautious, first day at ascot and inclement weather.

    tread lightly boys and girls...

    or play wide and go big on your novelty bets
    $-)

    rustyh likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    20,471 posts

    just thought PR and Disp. might not be fully wound up..they have some big plumbs to pick.

    have a look at #10's second up form....

  • jumjum    3,580 posts

    Two Races in a row, Sir Willie snags his rides back too last :-??

    I backed both the Farrkers

  • GrayGray    4,090 posts
    Wes Cameron worst tipster of weather ever
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited October 2016
    Uh oh...now I have Perfect Reflection as the 2ND and final leg of a multi after 2016 Winterbottom Stakes winner Voodoo Lad won the last race at Caulfield X_X [-O<
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    Perfect Reflection out to $3!?!Disposition being backed. Oh dear. I can't watch
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    Good horse that, on at 15s :)

    carey likes this post.

  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    Yep. I cant catch her. She looked a million dollars but the late money told the tale L-)
  • BlacksAFakeBlacksAFake    2,377 posts
    PR has lost a few lengths since before she went to Melbourne,not same turn of foot there.
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited October 2016
    Interesting ride on Disposition given the amount of betting support. Was never really in the race and was lengths off the drifting stablemate in the run.
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts

    PR has lost a few lengths since before she went to Melbourne,not same turn of foot there.

    Was a lot closer in the run than she's normally be. I wonder if they are playing possum until the Railway weights are released.  The horse looked ready, it certainly wasn't fat but somehow they 'knew' she was off....interesting :)]

    thefalcon likes this post.

  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited October 2016
    Watched the replay she didn't run through the line even though she got to within maybe half a length right on the post. I really don't know that's three flops in a row after winning five straight. Worrying signs.
  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    why does she have to have been off?
    maybe simply not good enough on the day.
    if pike rode most of his horses that way, he would probably have a better record than he already does.
    and she hasn't beaten anything yet.
    except for the one run where the track was way off.
  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    and in that race(KT) the pace was massive, where leaders had buckleys and none.

    how much did you win on that rodent?

  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    If they put her further forward than she'd usually be then it would explain the betting drift and also the confidence behind the move for the stablemate. The winner was urged along before she was and she didnt really let down for more than a few strides, then she makes up more ground on the line. They don't win very often anywhere when they drift like that. I'll be interested to see what happened on betfair As i said if the Railway is the plan it makes no sense to win today and cop even more weight...if that's the way you approach things.
  • BlacksAFakeBlacksAFake    2,377 posts
    Seriously Kramer,this time last year she would have put 4 on them in a heartbeat,probably a reason Weir sent her back??

    dungy likes this post.

  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited October 2016
    I saw something on twitter where Weir conceded he got it wrong with her. I havent read it but it appeared to be him admitting his mistakes rather than saying the horse wasn't good enough. She was in set weight races and then a WFA race so there was no immediate penalty for winning. I mean they said they were going back over 1800m with 50kg at Ascot! Before the rain came that would have been suicide. Now today she carries the same weight as Disposition(without checking id say she gets 2kg from him at WFA)and settles in front of him. I can understand if the Railway is the aim then these races don't mean much in the bigger picture.
  • RodentRodent    7,445 posts
    carey said:

    and in that race(KT) the pace was massive, where leaders had buckleys and none.

    how much did you win on that rodent?

    Too busy golfing. I won enough to cover my green fees. Tomorrow I'll have a proper bet.

    dungy likes this post.

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