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Ascot Preview, 13th Feb 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Perak Turf Club Trophy - Scott Embry
Simon Miller's 2 year olds are very much on-point and the money will come for this one, no doubt about it. Likely to be a very short priced favourite Kimbo's Girl couldn't have been any more impressive on debut only going down the narrowest of margins to Dainty Tess, a juvenile I have a fair bit of time for. Should take natural improvement from that run and be far too slick for the opponents here. Wrinkly the minor end of the exacta which is likely to pay around $1.30. Hard to see any of the debutants make an impact in this race and for Rock and Roll Train it's another outing to see the back of horses and to try and beat just one of them home. Keen on the Miller galloper but how short is too short? I'm only 5'3 so it's not something that worries me!
6. KIMBO'S GIRL - 1. WRINKLY - 3. CLEVER DICK
SUGGESTED BET - 6. KIMBO'S GIRL $100
Simon Miller's 2 year olds are very much on-point and the money will come for this one, no doubt about it. Likely to be a very short priced favourite Kimbo's Girl couldn't have been any more impressive on debut only going down the narrowest of margins to Dainty Tess, a juvenile I have a fair bit of time for. Should take natural improvement from that run and be far too slick for the opponents here. Wrinkly the minor end of the exacta which is likely to pay around $1.30. Hard to see any of the debutants make an impact in this race and for Rock and Roll Train it's another outing to see the back of horses and to try and beat just one of them home. Keen on the Miller galloper but how short is too short? I'm only 5'3 so it's not something that worries me!
6. KIMBO'S GIRL - 1. WRINKLY - 3. CLEVER DICK
SUGGESTED BET - 6. KIMBO'S GIRL $100
Comments
Giving Uncle George one more chance to break through for a victory this preparation. Has been incredibly well supported at each and every outing for the JT Warick stable and looks much better suited back at 2100m than he was last week over 1800 when backed from 10s into 5s with punters yet again funding the bookies Christmas party. With Pikey into the saddle, on a weeks' back-up I'm giving him the nod. Dark Alert will be pilotted by Clint Johnson-Porter for some weight relief and will obviously miss the services of the states best hoop. Well weighted and in a rich vein of form, hard to knock him and pretty hard to see him being beaten but I'll stick with the value of Uncle George. Disappointing to see Aaron Mitchell lose the ride on Keysbrook after a textbook winning effort last start. Multiple placings to Delicacy before finally breaking through for a second career victory last start. Is this another #streetbandit
9. UNCLE GEORGE - 2. DARK ALERT - 6. KEYSBROOK
Hoping for a speed battle out in front with She Rules All, Fire Born and even Discord Witch likely to push forward from their respective alleys in an attempt to find a spot in running. From a brilliant barrier draw I expect the Pontiff to settle Clobberetta a little handier to the speed and get the run of the race just in behind them. Last start Studio Fifty Four went out harder than a honeymooning couple and the race was ultimately contested between those at the front of the chasing pack giving Clobberetta no hope. Start before was a ripper chasing hard behind highly talented mare Cool Passion. Small field suits and if She Rules All and Fire Born can engage in a mini battle up front I think Clobberetta can knock them off. She Rules All was an impressive winner for Ben Kennedy and now carries 4kg less from that victory care of CJP's 2kg claim. Should hit the front at some stage and look the winner. Distant Memory knocked off Furious Dame at Bunbury and should figure again in a wide open 1200m event, one I'll stay away from.
5. CLOBBERETTA - 2. SHE RULES ALL - 1. DISTANT MEMORY
I think we can narrow this down to 3 winning hopes. In my opinion numbers 5-13 can not win as well as Discoville, who is 0 from 7 at Ascot and carries 58.5kg from an awkward gate. That leaves only 3 chances. I've settled on O'Reilly's Crumpet as I think he has the most potential for improvement. First-up effort was blistering behind Excellently and then second-up was pushed to 1800m and caught flat footed when Confusing let loose three wide and put them all to the sword. Dropping back to a mile might be a good move and with only 55kg on his back I'm going his way. Tom Almighty has obviously settled perfectly back into the Danny Morton stables after a fruitless stint in Kalgoorlie. Backed from 81 into 26 first-up at Bunbury when shooting up along the cutaway from last and then 20s into 8s second-up when almost nailing Countercat. Must carry a big impost but is racing very well. Slick Talker is a horse I like however, I have a rule against backing run-on type horses from barrier 1, especially when there is an inexperienced apprentice aboard. That being the case Slick Talker falls to the third of my three winning chances.
4. O'REILLY'S CRUMPET (NZ) - 1. TOM ALMIGHTY - 3. SLICK TALKER
SUGGESTED BET - 4. O'REILLY'S CRUMPET (NZ) $50 x $50
Forgiving the last start effort of Famous Someday and tipping him on his first-up victory at Pinjarra, which was highly impressive. Looks very well placed here in this mid-week grader and from a solid draw can prove the testing material. Was very well commissioned second-up before flopping but if you forgive that run then he is right in the mix. Throwing up some value for second in Count Kala. To my eyes there is a genuine lack of pace in the race and I think Parnham will be proactive and send the daughter of Danehill Express straight to the front. From there she makes her own luck and can definitely run a cheeky race at juicy odds. Fermentation was probably lucky in the fact she raced on a swoopers dominated track. I think back to a potentially leader-bias surface and she might find the 1200m a bit short for her liking. Happy to risk the likely favourite and put two ahead of her.
2. FAMOUS SOMEDAY - 5. COUNT KALA - 8. FERMENTATION (NZ)
SUGGESTED BET - 2. FAMOUS SOMEDAY $10 x $40
Just Act Natural has grown from start to start and should find the fence here and prove hard to catch yet again. Has a very high crusing speed and will be looking to run them into the ground at his first crack at Saturday grade. This is much harder than his recent runs however should be right up against the paint when they swing the bend for home. Pushin' Shapes hasn't won since his 2 year old debut but has found himself in top class races ever since. Yoshi Noxious drops in grade after a 9 week freshen-up and should be right there. They represent the class in the race and should give a genuine showing. Expecting Steal The Light to spear across from the outside gate and ensure the sparks are flying from the start which should allow Le Patron to settle into a much more suitable position off the back of a hot tempo. He is a lot better than he showed behind surprise winner Castle Queen. High Tea is a talented type resuming but might find a few of these a bit too sharp. Very hard race to pin point a winner and definitely a race to follow the money.
4. JUST ACT NATURAL - 2. PUSHIN' SHAPES - 1. YOSHI NOXIOUS
I think I probably jumped the gun a bit last week by putting Benito on top after a highly encouraging run over 1200 when beaten a lip by highly talented mare Volkoff. With the high levels we expect of a galloper like Benito last start was a shocker. Comfortable lead before crumbling under pressure like my beloved Dockers in September. However, I'm sticking with him. He is a 1000m horse and has finally dropped into a 1000m event. This is surely the race which has been picked out for him on the calender for a long time and I'm putting faith in David Harrison to have him spot on for this assignment. Forgive and forget, I'm buttering up again. Woolibar is much better than his first-up run and can give this a shake at eachway odds. Terkel is now a 7 year old who can be summarised in three words: enigmatic, fresh, sprinter. 80% of his career victories have come either first or second-up and beyond that he may as well head to the paddock for another rest. Lightly raced with only 26 career starts, he possesses a powerful finish when right and from barrier 1 should get a lovely tow into the race.
1. BENITO - 2. WOOLIBAR - 12. TERKEL
SUGGESTED BET - 1. BENITO $10 x $90
Massive North Ridge fan and stepping straight into a 1500m event off the back of what was realistically an 1100m trial first-up should go very close to winning. Baraki Beats will ensure there is a very genuine tempo set with Muskets At Dawn right behind him. They should roll along out in front and allow Steve Parnham to ease North Ridge about 4 lengths behind them and then unleash his powerful turn of foot late in the race. As long as there isn't a strong easterly breeze blowing then he should get his chance to run them down. Baraki Beats is a must lead to win type of horse and will pull his way forwards no matter what. Hasn't run a bad race this preparation and should go very close to stealing another one. Outlaw Pete trialled in impressive fashion before being a major first-up flop. He is lightyears better than that and definitely one to include in any exotic and quaddie investments. Terror Force was arguably a good thing beaten last start when running into more obsticles than Anthony Morabito. Again is a get-back runner from barrier 1 who will need luck at crucial stages of the race.
4. NORTH RIDGE - 1. BARAKI BEATS - 6. OUTLAW PETE
SUGGESTED BET - 4. NORTH RIDGE $30 x $70
Being a Hale boy I do find it hard to jump aboard the Redbacks bandwagon but sometimes you have to put feelings aside and marvel at raw ability. Red Ora is a cult hero of WA racing and when he is in the mounting yard you can feel the talent percolating. I'll never forget that luckless third in the 2015 Hannans when he picked himself up and charged into the placings after losing radio contact with the field rounding the home corner. He was caught in the unfamiliar role of pace-maker first-up and put on a galloping exhibition. Rises 4.5kg on that win and meets First Among Equals 2.5kg worse at the weights but that win was nothing short of emphatic and in the Cyril Flower you could say he's the pick of the bunch. I'm confident he will go mighty close to bagging another Listed victory here. First Among Equals looks better suited with an extra 100m to chase down Red Ora and with the noted weight advantage should be charging late. Dream Lifter claimed a second Great Southern trophy when destroying rivals at Mt Barker. This is much harder but he can measure up.
2. RED ORA - 5. FIRST AMONG EQUALS - 4. DREAM LIFTER
SUGGESTED BET - 2. RED ORA $100
No doubt in my mind that Red Paddy should be chasing a winning hat-trick. When he got knocked off by Smarty Wilson the horse was lucky to hold its feet and Aaron Mitchell did a very good job to stay in the saddle. If you've got 2 minutes for a laugh go onto youtube and type in "Byron Pickett hit on Brendan Krummel" that's a pretty solid comparison to what Red Paddy copped to the hind quarters costing him the race. Got the job done a fortnight later easing the pain of a fair few religious Simon Miller supporters and looks well placed again here. Star Glitter was heavily backed to beat him that day and did a good job to finish within a short neck, however, conceeds Red Paddy 1kg from that defeat. Ripper Red owes me a pocket full of Bradmans after his last start embarrassment. Is a talented type who will win one sooner rather than later but for now I'll have to buy my furniture at Ikea and not Dankz. PTT Quaddie Club Mint: 1,2,4,7,12 / 1,2,3,4,6,12 / 2,5 / 4,7,8,10 - $100 = 42%
7. RED PADDY (NZ) - 10. STAR GLITTER - 8. RIPPER RED
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In form Jockey
Great barrier
PUSHIN SHAPES
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So I'm going with the connections of the one who beat me that day; B Kersley and Brad Parnham with Yoshi Noxious.
He beat me last time in at a maiden on a Wed at 50's from memory. The runs after that showed great progress.
First up tomorrow and I hope class will tell.
Pushing Shapes is a stablemate of Let it Slip and is even shorter in the market.
Yoshi IMO has more form on the board and I believe will benefit greatly from a more vigorous rider.
Otherwise, there is the v impressive Keysbrook from last Sat. And yes I will have a saver on Saxy Grace!
North Ridge looks like he is back. But when will Outback Pete fulfill his potential?
And do you believe the improvement of Red Aura? I'll go for it!
Ripper Red I'm keen on, think the barrier actually helps it's chances. Just get it wide to the outside Jarrod
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I'll be back into all-ups but with Pushing Shapes!
Pike on so I'll bracket him with North Ridge.
Moving to the fave JAN as has a past close 2nd to Rhis Rocket who would street these.