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Ascot Preview, 27th Feb 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Morley Growers Market Plate - Scott Embry
Easy to tip last start winner Wrinkly in the first and I'm sure a lot will but I'll look outside the box and pop the Durrant trained first started My Journey on top. Blinkers added to race gear for his debut in his second-prep after going to the trials twice in September. I like the fact he has been out for a spell after his initial preparation. Most recent trial beaten a head by My Naughty Blonde when tramping three wide throughout was excellent. As a value runner, likely eachway price, I'll give him the nod. Ellens Choice made good ground late over 1100m on debut at Bunbury on a leader bias track behind two pretty talented 2 year olds in Fair Nakita and Invicible Mode. Expect that form to hold up. Throwing one up at odds in Snitzel colt Destined For Fame. Think he'll open around 50-1 and I'll nibble at that. Trialled behind boom 2 year old Atacama Sky and then behind Lusha, who is unraced, but a horse everyone will want to jump aboard on debut. Very green and even tried to jump the crossing after the trial but could surprise a few.
7. MY JOURNEY - 9. ELLENS CHOICE - 4. DESTINED FOR FAME
Easy to tip last start winner Wrinkly in the first and I'm sure a lot will but I'll look outside the box and pop the Durrant trained first started My Journey on top. Blinkers added to race gear for his debut in his second-prep after going to the trials twice in September. I like the fact he has been out for a spell after his initial preparation. Most recent trial beaten a head by My Naughty Blonde when tramping three wide throughout was excellent. As a value runner, likely eachway price, I'll give him the nod. Ellens Choice made good ground late over 1100m on debut at Bunbury on a leader bias track behind two pretty talented 2 year olds in Fair Nakita and Invicible Mode. Expect that form to hold up. Throwing one up at odds in Snitzel colt Destined For Fame. Think he'll open around 50-1 and I'll nibble at that. Trialled behind boom 2 year old Atacama Sky and then behind Lusha, who is unraced, but a horse everyone will want to jump aboard on debut. Very green and even tried to jump the crossing after the trial but could surprise a few.
7. MY JOURNEY - 9. ELLENS CHOICE - 4. DESTINED FOR FAME
Comments
Today is the day for Cougar Express. Loses Paul Harvey from the saddle but gets highly credentialed apprentice Aaron Mitchell aboard and from barrier 2 he should lead without any challenge, control and win. Has had the better of Bayatorio, Saxy Grace, Keysbrook and Uncle George at recent starts and meets most of those gallopers better at the weights for beating them home. The race looked his for the taking last start until The Ladies Choice rounded the field from last in a suicide mission jihad to get him beaten. Danny Miller doesn't accompany 500-1 shot Rock Prince so I can't see anything making a ridiculous mid-race move and it should be Cougar Express' for the taking. Uncle George is backed week in, week out and his loyal punters are yet to really steal anything from the bookies. He should be around the place yet again but hasn't graced the winners' enclosure for 931 days. Bayatorio is closing in on a middle distance victory but is yet to win over 1400m or at Ascot after 15 attempts.
1. COUGAR EXPRESS - 9. UNCLE GEORGE - 2. BAYATORIO
SUGGESTED BET - 1. COUGAR EXPRESS $100
I was all over North Ridge second-up and the money certainly came for him when he swept round the field three wide with cover and put rivals to the sword in a Game of Thrones style slaughter. Rises 1.5kg to 59 and meets main rivals Muskets at Dawn 1.5kg and Outlaw Pete 2kg worse at the weights. Happy enough to have the talented son of Danehill Express on top again but very wary of the weight swings and I'll bank my last start winnings rather than re-investing. Outlaw Pete's final furlong suggested he is back on top of his game and will be very hard to hold out. Muskets At Dawn will roll forwards and shouldn't have to spend a penny in running, there looks a lack of genuine pace allowing Mitchell to control the tempo out in front. Crystal Gardens is potentially the value play after getting a cheap kill in Albany and meets Muskets At Dawn and Zoetomtaya significantly better at the weights for narrow recent defeats. Socially Unique is a talented type rising sharply in grade but can easily figure in a very open and competitive race.
1. NORTH RIDGE - 5. OUTLAW PETE - 7. CRYSTAL GARDENS
Definitely no shortage of speed in this race with Jingtang, Castle Queen, Chillie Storm, Loopy's Ladies and Recoiled all more than capable of locking horns in an early speed battle which should ensure a blistering 1000m dash for cash. I found it hard to split Bristanto and Peggie's Maree but am leaning towards Brisanto from a slightly better barrier draw. I thought her effort last start behind Just Act Natural was brilliant. Caught 4 wide just off the speed throughout, to keep fighting all the way to the line was impressive. In-form hoop Pat Carbery jumps back into the saddle and I think she should be perfectly positioned just off the pace to pounce on them late. I'll definitely be saving on Peggie's Maree, a talented Blackfriars filly who will likely settle a length or two behind Brisanto and be unleashing her powerful turn of foot late in the piece. Those two as a bracket winning selection, a fair way ahead of the rest of the field.
8. BRISANTO - 7. PEGGIE'S MAREE - 5. EXPRESS BOY
This should give us a genuine indication of just how good Just Act Natural is. Was relatively slow away last start but was able to quickly muster pace and lead from his inside draw. Barrier 11 here makes things a little tougher but there doesn't look to be any real challengers for the lead and I expect Smith to slide over from the wide alley and find the fence again. From there he controls the race and probably wins. Carrying 59kg, tackling 1200m for the first time at Ascot, conceeding weight to every other runner and drawn the outside, I think there are enough questionmarks to go wide in this leg of the quaddie and hope for a result. I'll be including Le Patron, Patrimonio, Black Dynamite, Pushin' Shapes, Showy Chloe and High Tea as blowout hopes. The favourite could easily lead and win but there are some very handy types at juicy prices right behind him.
1. JUST ACT NATURAL - 6. LE PATRON - 2. BLACK DYNAMITE
Anyone who follows this forum will know that I'm a massive fan of So Ambitious. Half brother to Proart and Shamardashing out of the extremely well performed race mare Beaux Art. I've been spruiking this horse for a number of months and I think he's finally put it all together. Big strong son of Celtus who loves to roll along out in front and run rivals into the ground. He is perfectly suited to The Pontiff's riding style and responds incredibly well to a strong whip rider and so the big questionmark over him here is Aaron Mitchell jumping into the saddle. I expect Mitchell to put two or three lengths on the field from the 1200 and from there they'll struggle to reel him in. Mr Mankini tackles a trip for the first time in his short career and comes from arguably stronger form-lines than any of these. The Kersley-Tan combination is on fire and no surpirse to see him stretch So Ambitious. Flying Force has been up for a long time without winning but continues to savage the line and will pinch one sooner rather than later. Happy to narrow this down to a 3 horse race for the quaddie.
3. SO AMBITIOUS - 1. MR MANKINI - 6. FLYING FORCE
SUGGESTED BET - 3. SO AMBITIOUS $30 x $70
Pounamu is 2 from 2 in WA after arriving in the state as a 13 start maiden from NSW. However, for those who looked a little deeper, his form-lines as a 3 year old were top class contesting Group and Listed races behind the likes of Sweynesse, Volkstock'n'barrel, Hampton Court and Australia's newest supermare, Winx. 2 starts at Ascot for 2 wins, 2 starts for Pat Carbery for 2 wins and 2 starts at 1400m for 2 wins. It's very hard to see where the challengers come from and he looks set to rise through the grades rapidly. Many, like myself, will have him earmarked as the best bet on the card. William Pike could easily be going into the final race without a winner with his only rides under double figures being Socially Unique in a tough race and noted non-winner Uncle George. Pike teams up with Riki Tiki Tavi here and I think he is probably the value play in the race. Fast finishing efforts behind Fuld's Bet and It's It over 1200 were backed up last start by a luckless fifth to Pounamu. Meets that galloper 2kg better at the weights and was finishing off very nicely late. PTT Quaddie Club: 5,7,8,9 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,8 / 1,3,6 / 6,9 - $100 = 60%
6. POUNAMU - 9. RIKKI TIKKI TAVI - 1. CONJOB
SUGGESTED BET - 6. POUNAMU $100
Nothing more consistent or gutsy than in-form mare. Once mares hit form they'll give it absolutely everything and many build up imposing records. This race sees three in-form mares clashing in Volkoff, Secret Nova and Kennocha. It's hard not to tip Volkoff who can low fly over the final furlong to nab leaders who look to have the winners cheque in their grasp with only 50m to run. Is yet to finish outside the top 2 at Ascot from 7 attempts and carrying only 55kg this race looks very winnable again. Secret Nova is another in-form mare and her fighting finish last start was super impressive. Looked gone at the 100 with Bourne Supremacy and Classical Prince unleashing to her outside but stuck her neck out at the right time and scored a brilliant gritty win. Should get a very soft run from barrier 1 and be there at the only time that really matters. Marchand is a horse of mine and I love his consistency, should appreciate getting Troy Turner into the saddle again after dealing with young claiming apprentices and big weights. Kennocha has a remarkable record over her short career but will need to be sharp from the awkward gate.
9. VOLKOFF - 5. SECRET NOVA - 8. MARCHAND
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Pounamu - Best Bet
Marchand - Value. Hopefully lead all the way now that Kennocha is out
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No attempt to be up on speed on a day when that is where you have to be.