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WA Pacing Cup night.
Harness & Greyhounds
Gilgamesh
5,004 posts
Beautiful night for it, anyone with a slight interest or no other plans get out there and enjoy it! Here's a bit of a look from me.
R1: No1 Ultimate Major has opened up $1.18 and $1.30 in the two early fixed odds markets. Far too short for me to be involved but that's what you get now days with the majority of races random barrier draws a lot of the races have an obvious pick going around a ridiculously cramped price which puts a lot of people off the punt, that's progress apparently. He should lead and be very hard to beat, like a lot of horses does his best work in that position. 8 will follow the lead throughout and should be an anchor for the FF and I think 9 Intrepidation will go straight to the fence behind it and be a big FF player as well (loves the fence).5 Mexicano should get outside the lead early and then get the lovely trail on 11 Braview Bomber who is an interesting runner having won 5 of his last 7 he could stretch the odds on horses neck. For me they are the First Four chances.
Bet: I might have something on 8 Intrepidation the place if I can get around $5 and a FF 1/8,9/5,8,9,11/5,8,9,11 then moving the 8,9 through the boxes for a small amount.
R2: G Hall snr has consistently talked down 2 Authorised, initially I had him just leading this and winning but with the 1 Look Down Charlie also announcing they would be shooting for an all the way win I've gone cold. The other good chance in the race 5 Jasper Freeway does his best work when leading as well so if all three shoot for the top it could set it up for a swooper but I couldn't tell you who that would be, maybe Dardy Delight but I wouldn't be putting my money on it to get over these.
Bet: Another one that doesn't look like a betting race, I've had something very small on No1 Look Down Charlie at $35/$7 purely for an interest, it would have to improve on its career record but either leading or leaders back at that price it gets a chance to do that.
R3: My one real bet for the night No4 Classic American. Anyone who has read my comments on this horse knows that I have an opinion of him. I think the stable have tended to under drive him in the past, I went back and had a look at some of his early runs and his very first run he really charged the arm. Snr said during the week that they would look to be a bit more positive tonight, I think he can find the front tonight but even if he cant he is versatile. $2.20 was available early, into $1.75 and $1.30 now, if I wasn't on early I'd probably still be happy to jump on at the $1.75 and I'm not a shorty backer. 8 Niknak Paddy Whack can sprint very quickly so if for some reason Classic American is forced to do a power of work and Paddy can find himself getting some late splits he will charge and is to me the only danger.
R4: Mentioned many time Erskine Range doesn't do his best at GP (2wins from 26 goes here vs 13wins from 22 starts elsewhere) and he has been $1.70 into $1.45 but you'd be brave to pick something against him in this. Only danger is that both the 1&2 horses will wont to be trailing him so he could have to do a little bit early but it shouldn't bother him. If they do over do it early 11 Max Meridius is a talent but he'd probably need to be a career best run to beat Erskine Range from that draw and I don't like to back them under that scenario.
Bet: I've had something on No1 Bettor As at $3 the place thinking he'll get leaders back, if the 2 happened to cross it I'd expect him to run well from that position too so may take the exacta 4 form 1&2.
R5: If Ballas Arockstar was race fit and you could be guaranteed he would lead then I'd be all over him but he's not and you cant. I've had something small on No3 Say It Now at $15 thinking he might be able to get across, he does excel as a front runner and does have some zip off the arm. I'm taking on 11 Soho Lennon (possibly at my peril) just on the thinking that Local Rogue led and really made him stretch to beat him a couple of months ago and both Say It Now and Ballas Arockstar are better horse than him.
R6: Tough race for the mares, no confidence but think Lucky Joy can slot in quickly and has a touch of class, at $6 am happy to be on EW.
R7: I think Mr Nickel is big chance of being crossed and at around even money i'm happy to take him on,. Think 2 Grand Cru is the horse to cross him, he is versatile so if he doesn't cross I wont be throwing away my ticket. Interestingly he opened up $4.40 with one agency and $17 the other! Mr Nickel does do his best on top, in that scenario it bring Ben Cartwright into it but I think he may be struggling to get off tonight and be one of the hard luck stories of the night. Ohoka Kentucky was vey good last week, if they happen to burn and he can get a good trail he'll be a nice knock out chance.
Bet: No2 Grand Cru EW.
R8: Ducks and Drakes in the Pacing Cup. If Northview Punter and Toretto weren't stable mates you could be confident of Northview shooting for an all the way win. The fact that they are stable mates and if Northvew does hand up to Toretto it gives them 2 live chances rather than one so I'd expect Toretto to be leading from Northview Punter. They will want to be coming out quickly as Bettors Fire will have to come out looking to get across. Even with the magnificent record David Hercules this is his real chance to silent any doubters. It's far from a vintage line up but if he can come from 11, work around them and give them a beating he deserves to be given a but more respect than he has. If he doesn't he'll probably always be remember as one who could blow them away on his own terms but that's about it. For me my biggest concern with Herc has always been that he can fall away many lengths from one week to the next, I think if he can just show up as well as he was last week he'll be winning.
Bet: When David Hercules got out to $3.50 I had to have something on, I think Northview Punter might get out to EW odds on the night and if so I will have something on him as well. There has been some backing for those long in the markets but I can't see any surprise results here.
R9: I think if any of the 2,3 or 4 land on top they will want to be leading, I suspect it may be 4 Our Calvados and if he was leading I'd like to be on him EW. It's looking like Rockyoubaby will be pretty short, could blow them away but I'd be more than happy to take him on. This is a nice race class wise for 11 Some Kinda Tactics, if he can step he can run very nicely at an EW price. I'd suspect he'd make the early move around them but can come from behind them as well.
Bet: I don't think you can go wrong backing either of Our Calvados or Some Kinda Tactics EW, that said I've got a fair few bets on already and don't have one on in this race so not my best but if I'm up no doubt I'll play.
R10: Have been lacking in number of 3 year olds but not in quality. Really looking forward to this one, see if Rycroft can do things right tonight. No punt but plenty of interest.
Good luck everyone, like I said get along!
R1: No1 Ultimate Major has opened up $1.18 and $1.30 in the two early fixed odds markets. Far too short for me to be involved but that's what you get now days with the majority of races random barrier draws a lot of the races have an obvious pick going around a ridiculously cramped price which puts a lot of people off the punt, that's progress apparently. He should lead and be very hard to beat, like a lot of horses does his best work in that position. 8 will follow the lead throughout and should be an anchor for the FF and I think 9 Intrepidation will go straight to the fence behind it and be a big FF player as well (loves the fence).5 Mexicano should get outside the lead early and then get the lovely trail on 11 Braview Bomber who is an interesting runner having won 5 of his last 7 he could stretch the odds on horses neck. For me they are the First Four chances.
Bet: I might have something on 8 Intrepidation the place if I can get around $5 and a FF 1/8,9/5,8,9,11/5,8,9,11 then moving the 8,9 through the boxes for a small amount.
R2: G Hall snr has consistently talked down 2 Authorised, initially I had him just leading this and winning but with the 1 Look Down Charlie also announcing they would be shooting for an all the way win I've gone cold. The other good chance in the race 5 Jasper Freeway does his best work when leading as well so if all three shoot for the top it could set it up for a swooper but I couldn't tell you who that would be, maybe Dardy Delight but I wouldn't be putting my money on it to get over these.
Bet: Another one that doesn't look like a betting race, I've had something very small on No1 Look Down Charlie at $35/$7 purely for an interest, it would have to improve on its career record but either leading or leaders back at that price it gets a chance to do that.
R3: My one real bet for the night No4 Classic American. Anyone who has read my comments on this horse knows that I have an opinion of him. I think the stable have tended to under drive him in the past, I went back and had a look at some of his early runs and his very first run he really charged the arm. Snr said during the week that they would look to be a bit more positive tonight, I think he can find the front tonight but even if he cant he is versatile. $2.20 was available early, into $1.75 and $1.30 now, if I wasn't on early I'd probably still be happy to jump on at the $1.75 and I'm not a shorty backer. 8 Niknak Paddy Whack can sprint very quickly so if for some reason Classic American is forced to do a power of work and Paddy can find himself getting some late splits he will charge and is to me the only danger.
R4: Mentioned many time Erskine Range doesn't do his best at GP (2wins from 26 goes here vs 13wins from 22 starts elsewhere) and he has been $1.70 into $1.45 but you'd be brave to pick something against him in this. Only danger is that both the 1&2 horses will wont to be trailing him so he could have to do a little bit early but it shouldn't bother him. If they do over do it early 11 Max Meridius is a talent but he'd probably need to be a career best run to beat Erskine Range from that draw and I don't like to back them under that scenario.
Bet: I've had something on No1 Bettor As at $3 the place thinking he'll get leaders back, if the 2 happened to cross it I'd expect him to run well from that position too so may take the exacta 4 form 1&2.
R5: If Ballas Arockstar was race fit and you could be guaranteed he would lead then I'd be all over him but he's not and you cant. I've had something small on No3 Say It Now at $15 thinking he might be able to get across, he does excel as a front runner and does have some zip off the arm. I'm taking on 11 Soho Lennon (possibly at my peril) just on the thinking that Local Rogue led and really made him stretch to beat him a couple of months ago and both Say It Now and Ballas Arockstar are better horse than him.
R6: Tough race for the mares, no confidence but think Lucky Joy can slot in quickly and has a touch of class, at $6 am happy to be on EW.
R7: I think Mr Nickel is big chance of being crossed and at around even money i'm happy to take him on,. Think 2 Grand Cru is the horse to cross him, he is versatile so if he doesn't cross I wont be throwing away my ticket. Interestingly he opened up $4.40 with one agency and $17 the other! Mr Nickel does do his best on top, in that scenario it bring Ben Cartwright into it but I think he may be struggling to get off tonight and be one of the hard luck stories of the night. Ohoka Kentucky was vey good last week, if they happen to burn and he can get a good trail he'll be a nice knock out chance.
Bet: No2 Grand Cru EW.
R8: Ducks and Drakes in the Pacing Cup. If Northview Punter and Toretto weren't stable mates you could be confident of Northview shooting for an all the way win. The fact that they are stable mates and if Northvew does hand up to Toretto it gives them 2 live chances rather than one so I'd expect Toretto to be leading from Northview Punter. They will want to be coming out quickly as Bettors Fire will have to come out looking to get across. Even with the magnificent record David Hercules this is his real chance to silent any doubters. It's far from a vintage line up but if he can come from 11, work around them and give them a beating he deserves to be given a but more respect than he has. If he doesn't he'll probably always be remember as one who could blow them away on his own terms but that's about it. For me my biggest concern with Herc has always been that he can fall away many lengths from one week to the next, I think if he can just show up as well as he was last week he'll be winning.
Bet: When David Hercules got out to $3.50 I had to have something on, I think Northview Punter might get out to EW odds on the night and if so I will have something on him as well. There has been some backing for those long in the markets but I can't see any surprise results here.
R9: I think if any of the 2,3 or 4 land on top they will want to be leading, I suspect it may be 4 Our Calvados and if he was leading I'd like to be on him EW. It's looking like Rockyoubaby will be pretty short, could blow them away but I'd be more than happy to take him on. This is a nice race class wise for 11 Some Kinda Tactics, if he can step he can run very nicely at an EW price. I'd suspect he'd make the early move around them but can come from behind them as well.
Bet: I don't think you can go wrong backing either of Our Calvados or Some Kinda Tactics EW, that said I've got a fair few bets on already and don't have one on in this race so not my best but if I'm up no doubt I'll play.
R10: Have been lacking in number of 3 year olds but not in quality. Really looking forward to this one, see if Rycroft can do things right tonight. No punt but plenty of interest.
Good luck everyone, like I said get along!
Comments
I do agree Linc hard to cross from side by side but just think Reed might just catch Jones napping.
R2 The Apache Kid
R3 Nicnak Paddy Wak
R4 Bettor As
R5 Ballas Arockstar
R6 Hoylakes Firstlady
R7 Ohoka Kentucky
R8 Our Jimmy Johnstone
R9 Our Calvados
R10 Persistent Threat
Chris likes this post.
BarryBallJnr dislikes this post.
What is wrong with matt young, couldn't raise any excitement before or after the race, not even a smile, drone! Thought mousey and hall were good thou
BarryBallJnr dislikes this post.
Gilgamesh likes this post.
Wouldn't have won anyway, only won once in the last heap of runs and in s lot easier race
jesteress likes this post.
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.