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New Handicapping System for the Trots

Harness & Greyhounds

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  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    Its bloody hilarious if you draw gate 1 each week and your horse is half decent off the arm but if you don't, I can tell you from personal experience it is distinctly unfunny. You may as well scratch and stay home.

    Gilgamesh, capgun likes this post.

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  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    edited December 2019
    Another hilarious set of barriers for Friday night. GTC will find them amusing, ol JJ off searching for his book on statistics, couldn't locate but did find a manual entitled "How To Completely Stuff A Decent Horse" and it had nothing to do with Taxidemy. BTW, wanted - 5 "For Sale" signs, enquiries from USA and SA citizens only.
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  • Browny123Browny123    97 posts
    Out of interest jay jay..why will you only be interested in selling them to SA or USA?
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  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    edited December 2019
    If Tiger drew gate 1 at his first run for new connections, I'd jump off the gap!!!!

    His record in WA is 10, (1 in a PBD), 5,10,8,8,6,1,9,9,6,5,6,6,6 and 8.
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  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    288 posts
    JayJay said:

    Another hilarious set of barriers for Friday night. GTC will find them amusing, ol JJ off searching for his book on statistics, couldn't locate but did find a manual entitled "How To Completely Stuff A Decent Horse" and it had nothing to do with Taxidemy. BTW, wanted - 5 "For Sale" signs, enquiries from USA and SA citizens only.

    level races seem quite popular , "Barrier Draw doesn't matter does it " RB D recent form doesn't account for much if its bad you can still draw wide in RBD if your lower HWOE than barrier 1 with less form ,shell be right you still have a chance in the Steven Bradbury stakes ;) 


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  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    Who will ever forget that gem from you know who ....."The Barrier Draw is not a handicapping tool but I am no expert on handicapping"....... I think were his exact words. To quote Sir Humphrey, "That is a very courageous statement Minister, very bold and incisive but perhaps a touch unwise".  Won me over in the disrespect stakes forever. It's funny how it works...GTC's McArdles Gem got an almost "Steven Bradbury" job last start and the driver was alert enough to grab the chance and then he draws 1 for Friday Night and good luck to them, grab it while its available, because my experience is that it rarely occurs. Not only Tiger but Clarenden Hustler's barriers for 2019, starting January 4th have been : 9, 5, 4,10, 7, 12, 5, 7, 10, 1, 7, 12, 12, 6, 5, 5, 8, 5, 10, 7, 11, 3 and 10......and the night he drew 1, he ran into the low flying Luis Alberto who was blowing everything out the back door at the time. No wonder I subscribe to conspiracy theories. We tried those ridiculous group PBD quasi Random Barrier Draw races the last few weeks with Tiger. Could have drawn gate 3 to 6 in an 8 horse field. He got 6.....again.....and again.....and again. Is regularly the lowest rated horse (NR 74)  in the HWOE <70k or <85k races and gives away barrier advantage to horses with NR 102 and the like. Extremely fair system that is bound to prolong the racing careers of many horses but it won't be in the WA jurisdiction and they won't be mine.

    Gilgamesh, TrackBias, curmudgeon, jum likes this post.

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  • freodockersfreodockers    2,667 posts
    Fair to say fellas doesn't matter what handicapping situation you have at GP If your horse has no gate speed you are dead in the water on most occasions.
    That is why there have been so many variations to starting/handicapping situations over the decades.
    If you have a horse with no gate speed and can't do work then at GP it's basically make the hard decision or suck up the losses and enjoy the odd cheque.
    It's never been any different at GP it's too one dimensional and trainers and drivers nowadays all over it.
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  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    Both Tiger and Hustler have excellent gate speed, as fast off the arm as anything but coming out of 5 to 9 is a huge risk of getting caught outside the leader, which as we have found through bitter experience when they are running 1.55 in front, and you are breezing, (a) you kill your horse and (b) you don't earn. We all know the track is too small, has been for decades, we all know it is one dimensional, so all the more need for an actual handicapping system. What we have at the moment is lotto.

    cisco, TrackBias, curmudgeon, capgun, VillageKid, jum likes this post.

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  • freodockersfreodockers    2,667 posts
    JJ tiger has had 15 starts in WA for six wins and 50.0k in stakes not sure what the problem is here.
    If it's the random barrier issue then that is irrelevant as everyone is in the same boat.
    Yes it's a lottery but PBD also allows good horses to draw well too,Halls, Bonds etc.
    Can remember everyone complaining about these stables continually placing horses under PBD system and outclassing good horses, GP processions.
    The track and racing style is completely outdated, it is the worst track to race on,bet on etc etc.
    My opinion only but until it's a 1000 mtr track these issues will continue regardless of PBD or RBD.
    PS good luck Friday night I honestly think Tiger is a big chance even from the **** draw.
    Hope he wins by 100 mtrs at 20s




    The track is outdated and the powers to be are trying to create systems around it.
    Interesting to note one of the biggest supporters of GP 800 mtr track has been Hall himself to me for obvious reasons.
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  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    RBD is as far removed from handicapping as you can possibly get. Combine it with  HWOE "Conditioned Racing" and you can race a horse into the ground week in week out with potentially zero chance of ever winning a race unless you get a sensational drive, a Steven Bradbury or some other driver makes a monumental stuff up and you get it handed to you on a platter. Yes, Tiger has won 6 times, 2 "R" races of $4,500 at Wagin and Narrogin and a "C" race at Narrogin worth $7,500. It hardly makes him Cardigan Bay. Of his 3 wins in metro races, one he drew 1 and lead all the way, the other two were driven for luck from gate 8 and gate 9 and we got lucky, very lucky courtesy of 12 out of 10 drives from Suvaljko. Since then, he has had to race out of his class, both on a NR basis and a HWOE basis, in RBD's and quasi RBD"S dressed up under the  Group PBD nonsense, he  hasn't jagged a gate for weeks/months, has raced honest but we have really gone to the races each week knowing he can't win or be placed...i.e he is a 1.55 horse that through RBD/HWOE has hit the wall. Either you keep flogging away with him or you sell him to another jurisdiction. Simples.......but tell me how that enhances the sport or provides any enjoyment for an owner wanting to race a horse. PBD at least provides a semblance of genuine handicapping, which given the nature of the track (and I concur 100% with your view on that), is essential if the 12 runners fronting each race are to have any chance whatsoever of being competitive. I have never suggested that others are not in the same boat, we all in the same schitt sandwich but those with unlimited resources and multiple multiple runners simply out gun minor players, get the biggest slice of the pie, and where there were once crumbs left on the table at provincial and community meetings, those crumbs are now being understandably vacuumed up leaving nothing behind.

    TrackBias, curmudgeon, VillageKid likes this post.

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  • Ivorytrunkey86Ivorytrunkey86    240 posts
    I’ll give you $5000 for him then jay jay haha.

    JayJay likes this post.

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  • freodockersfreodockers    2,667 posts
    Agree 100 percent Jay jay but until they change the dimensions it will die a slow death.
    Major changes need to be made but my argument is handicapping styles is only the result not the solution.
    I bet consistently and I dread GP as I know I will end up losing on most occassions, and I think I have been around long enough to pick a winner.
    We bash the new system but in my opinion the returns from a punters perspective on regional tracks have improved dramatically over the past 12 months compared to GP.
    I am no longer an owner or a trainer so it is easy for me to say but the issue itself is GP and until major changes are made it will remain as is.
    I applaud the likes of yourself and Matt Scott who does a great job but until someone actually grabs the industry by the scruff of the neck and shows some actual leadership and direction it will remain the same regardless of handicapping conditions.
    Again big tip Friday night the tiger.
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  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    Good luck at the $2.50 from gate 8.
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  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    Horse pool numbers must be very strong when the  maiden programmed at a  Sunday evening community meeting at Wagin falls over leaving just 6 races, 5 of which are under subscribed and two of which will only pay first and second. Yet another endorsement of the new business model working a treat. And still the fiddlers tune their instruments.

    curmudgeon, TrackBias, VillageKid likes this post.

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  • AbbysAceAbbysAce    698 posts
    Who makes the decision to continue with this ?
    And what date?

    Or is it indefinite?

    Central Wheatbelt last season before it come in 10 races every time 

    curmudgeon, JayJay, TrackBias likes this post.

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  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts




    VillageKid likes this post.

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  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    288 posts
    JayJay said:

    Horse pool numbers must be very strong when the  maiden programmed at a  Sunday evening community meeting at Wagin falls over leaving just 6 races, 5 of which are under subscribed and two of which will only pay first and second. Yet another endorsement of the new business model working a treat. And still the fiddlers tune their instruments.

    the hot weather could have a factor on that meeting 
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  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    Well it might, well it might...... but it might be that the pool of horses and/or participants at the base level is not there any more. As is the way the whole situation has been managed or mismanaged depending on your position, management will blame the Industry participants and Industry participants will blame management, hardly a productive model in reaching any sort of resolution. Dog eat dog, divide and conquer, get them fighting amongst each other and maintain your position. You could be forgiven for imagining that Chris Corrigan is running the process.

    TrackBias, curmudgeon, VillageKid, freodockers likes this post.

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  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    288 posts
    JayJay said:

    Well it might, well it might...... but it might be that the pool of horses and/or participants at the base level is not there any more. As is the way the whole situation has been managed or mismanaged depending on your position, management will blame the Industry participants and Industry participants will blame management, hardly a productive model in reaching any sort of resolution. Dog eat dog, divide and conquer, get them fighting amongst each other and maintain your position. You could be forgiven for imagining that Chris Corrigan is running the process.

    as expected wagin cancelled due to extreme hot weather 
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  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    2,417 posts
    edited December 2019
    Results of R1 & R2 tonight heavily influenced by the RBD provisions of the NBM with favs winning both "races" from #1. 

    PBD on H earnings would have provided much different scenarios.

    Also....SKY coverage of both races was a disgrace .....1/4 screen display on Sky 2 for Race1 whilst static advertisements and greyhounds and handlers meandered around the start and almost 4 minutes of gallopers trotting to the barriers at Canterbury on 1/4 screen and GP Race 2 on the remnant 1/4. 
    This is the mob that is a subsidiary of TABcorp ....the suitors for the WATAB......they will strangle the vision of the harness product if they get the nod. Thoroughbred and Greyhounds wall to wall along with virtual racing.....metaphorical poker machines. A societal scourge disgracefully snuck into WA under the nose of a ship of acquiescent governmental fools.  
    ps....R3 coverage...more of the same 1/4 screen race vision and garbage pre race.

    VillageKid, Gilgamesh likes this post.

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  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    3,025 posts
    Golden Nugget meeting threw up some interesting results with stake money spread far and wide.

    Brett Smith the only dual winner with the powerful stables far from dominant but unlikely get a mention under the current climate of woe and despair.
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  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    3,025 posts
    For the purpose of this exercise I will refer to trainers Hall, Bond, Olivieri, Reed and Prentice as the Big 5 metro trainers.

    Of the $382,000 on offer before trainers and drivers percentages the Big 5 won only $67,045 or 17.5%.

    Not drawing any conclusions from one meeting but they definitely did not dominate on Friday night compared to Allstars in NZ.
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  • savethegamesavethegame    3,214 posts
    That's good for the industry ------12 months long time,----  last years golden nugget race .Bondy had six runners hall had 3 runners  Olivieri had one Reed had one Hawkins one.

    200k. on offer Hawkins got 2k for last------the big stable the rest. 198k.
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  • JayJayJayJay    8,623 posts
    I accept you used the rider "not drawing any conclusions from one meeting"...but turn it up Chariots, you of all people know the hazardous nature of making decisions based on a sample size of one meeting. I am going out on a limb and suggesting the miserly 17.5% is an absolute aberration, an "outrider" in the statistical stakes. I'd be betting you do your form based on more than a horses last run.  It would be equally erroneous for me to quote the previous one off stat from  the December 6th meeting at GP when the big 5 snaffled 35% of the stakes on offer, or the October 18th meeting at GP when they won 41.2% of the stakes on offer, or  the country meeting in October at Central Wheatbelt when just one of the "big five" took home 51.2% of the total stakes on offer. That said, the big five have not, without doing extensive stats and speaking anecdotally, it seems been firing on all cylinders in recent weeks, somewhat of a lean run. And it has been fantastic that Aldo, Annie Belton, Michael Brennan (arguably a top 5 contender) and Ryan Bell have been having such fantastic success.
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  • ToepuntitToepuntit    241 posts
    To be fair jay jay, mouse doesn’t have a very big team, so for what he’s been able to achieve is very good, numbers wise I don’t think he’d be in the top 10 for how many he has in work

    JayJay likes this post.

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  • GilgameshGilgamesh    5,002 posts
    How about when Greg and Skye Bond won 5 of the 6 races recently at the “community” meeting at Kellerberrin for a 1 meeting sample size? Just for arguments sake.

    JayJay likes this post.

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  • AbbysAceAbbysAce    698 posts
    Gilgamesh said:

    How about when Greg and Skye Bond won 5 of the 6 races recently at the “community” meeting at Kellerberrin for a 1 meeting sample size? Just for arguments sake.

    Thats the handicapping system, getting free win dollars  
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  • sonnysonny    1,534 posts
    They have to take them where they can win..

    Browny123 likes this post.

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  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    288 posts
    sonny said:

    They have to take them where they can win..

    Hahaha lol 
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  • freodockersfreodockers    2,667 posts
    JJ interesting you make the comment the "big five have not been firing on all cylinders in recent weeks".
    I mentioned the Bond team falling away some time ago in previous posts.
    I would suggest past six months.
    Could this be attributed to the new handicapping system not favouring stables with multiple runners in one race under PBD barrier system.
    Or is it simply because they have shipped their "imports" overseas because the new system doesn't agree with their previous money grabbing programming.
    Either way the question has to be asked and if the trend continues with the even spread of winners coming through as you mentioned ,, well then it's a good thing isn't it.
    PS I am mainly referring to Friday GP here not Kellerberrin trials because that's what it is for a certain stable. $200.00 extra in fuel and your racing for 2.5k instead of nothing, it's a simple business decision when you know you are guaranteed to pick up a couple of races.
    Don't agree with it but they did it under the old system and they will do it under the new system.

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